ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[cycloneye]

I always see references to the MJO forecasts, but I could never find anything that show how accurate or inaccurate they are.

Note that there is NO MJO forecast to reach the East Pacific over the coming weeks. If you check the weekly MJO site, they discuss that prediction of some increased convection over the East Pac and Gulf/Caribbean being related to other things, not the MJO.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... update.pdf

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... update.ppt

57,then this MJO graphic is not correct forecasting wet MJO for the Atlantic from the 15th?

[ConvergenceZone]

I think the reason you don't see people posting the MJO forecasts anymore, because of it's in-accurate predictions.
I can't count how many times we've waited for the MJO phase to turn positive and after it turned positive
it didn't seem any busier than it did before. So I'm glad people people aren't putting the emphasis
towards a positive MJO like they were before, as it didn't seem to make much of a difference anyway.

[Ivanhater]

40 percent

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 525 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20
MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Ivanhater]

12z GFDL

[cycloneye]

Hmmm,that is a very interesting run that plows to my house in San Juan.

[Fego]

I verified twice and ECM 12Z run shows some changes related with 93L. But, its weird at 72 hrs, 96hrs and 120 hrs, like back and forward .

[cycloneye]

I am a little surprised that they kept it at 40%,despite the appeareance on sattelite.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Latest TAFB Surface Analysis Forecast (72 hours)

[Ivanhater]

Fego, check the time stamp. Today's 12z Euro is only out to 96 hours so far. I removed your image to relieve confusion.


Today's 12z Euro...96 hours



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[Ivanhater]

120 hour...Euro still on board



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[HurricaneMaster_PR]

I verified twice and ECM 12Z run shows some changes related with 93L. But, its weird at 72 hrs, 96hrs and 120 hrs, like back and forward .

The same happened to the NHC/TAFB Experimental Gridded Marine Forecasts at the end of the run :S Very weird..


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/gridded_ma ... d#contents

[Ivanhater]

144 hours




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[Fego]

Fego, check the time stamp. Today's 12z Euro is only out to 96 hours so far. I removed your image to relieve confusion.

I found out, thanks.

[underthwx]

Let me say this.
, folks in the hot zone welcome the chance of any healthy rainmaker. I don't want to be greedy, but if 93L or whatever rolls on in, that's cool with everyone affected by this horrible weather. We don't want or need a desructive storm just some RAIN. I'm a lifelong Gulfcoast resident, and I'm honored to be a part of this forum, and I hope to stay and be as informed as yall. I refer to 2k during any event, as well as the NHC. This is my classroom and I hope you veterans of this forum don't mind. Have a great weekend!

[cycloneye]

Michael,is that a stronger run by Euro?

[Ivanhater]

Michael,is that a stronger run by Euro?

Stronger than the 00z run last night so far Luis

[Ivanhater]

168 hours



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[underthwx]

168 hours



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May I ask where is the best site to check models?

[Ivanhater]

Like the GFS..the Euro falls apart in the Caribbean

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track for 93L

AL, 93, 2011081218, , BEST, 0, 113N, 315W, 25, 1010, LO