ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Portastorm]

underthwx, what kind of models? GFS? Euro? Both? Tropical cyclone models?

There are many, many online portals which contain computer model runs and it kinda depends on what you are looking for.

This one happens to be one of my favorites but I'm sure many here have others:

http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/index.php

[Portastorm]

underthwx, what kind of models? GFS? Euro? Both? Tropical cyclone models?

There are many, many online portals which contain computer model runs and it kinda depends on what you are looking for.

This one happens to be one of my favorites but I'm sure many here have others:

http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/index.php

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models for 93L.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 121848
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1848 UTC FRI AUG 12 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932011) 20110812 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110812  1800   110813  0600   110813  1800   110814  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.3N  31.5W   11.5N  33.0W   11.8N  35.1W   12.2N  37.9W
BAMD    11.3N  31.5W   11.5N  34.0W   11.8N  36.4W   12.0N  38.7W
BAMM    11.3N  31.5W   11.5N  33.6W   11.9N  35.9W   12.3N  38.5W
LBAR    11.3N  31.5W   11.4N  34.6W   11.8N  38.0W   12.1N  41.3W
SHIP        25KTS          27KTS          30KTS          37KTS
DSHP        25KTS          27KTS          30KTS          37KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110814  1800   110815  1800   110816  1800   110817  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.9N  41.1W   14.5N  47.6W   16.5N  54.7W   18.6N  62.4W
BAMD    12.3N  41.0W   13.5N  44.6W   15.7N  47.7W   18.3N  50.0W
BAMM    12.9N  41.2W   14.3N  46.3W   16.4N  51.1W   18.8N  55.1W
LBAR    12.6N  44.4W   12.9N  49.9W   12.8N  54.3W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        45KTS          58KTS          66KTS          71KTS
DSHP        45KTS          58KTS          66KTS          71KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  11.3N LONCUR =  31.5W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  16KT
LATM12 =  11.2N LONM12 =  28.4W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 =  17KT
LATM24 =  10.8N LONM24 =  24.6W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[scogor]

Well, it sure looks like my lovely wife and I picked an interesting time to visit Nevis and St. Kitts. We leave Nevis tomorrow and will be spending the next seven days (we hope!!) at our Marriott time share at Frigate Bay in St. Kitts. Those most recent models of 93L don't exactly fill me with a warm and fuzzy feeling! We're actually staying at the Four Seasons in Nevis which as many of you know was close for several years after Omar socked it with a substantial storm surge back in (I believe) 2007. It's been restored very nicely but I don't need to tell anyone on this board how devastating tropical systems can be to islands that heavily rely on tourism. If the weather and my wireless connection at the Marriott allow, I'll try to provide the board with updates if (hopefully not when) 93L influences St. Kitts. Time for all us in the Caribbean (visitors and residents alike) to keep an eye to the sky and to this board!

[underthwx]

underthwx, what kind of models? GFS? Euro? Both? Tropical cyclone models?

There are many, many online portals which contain computer model runs and it kinda depends on what you are looking for.

This one happens to be one of my favorites but I'm sure many here have others:

http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/index.php

For a novice like me that will be a good start. Im trying not to get in the way during peak periods. I just want to learn and know what youi and your team know. Thankyou for responding.

[Ivanhater]

Well getting it's act together again and heading through the Yucatan Channel



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Ivanhater]

Nice ridging off the east coast as well



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Gustywind]

Latest SSD T NUMBERS

12/1145 UTC 12.0N 30.1W TOO WEAK 93L -- Atlantic

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 121754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N29W 14N30W...TO
A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11N ALONG THE WAVE.
RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 14N
BETWEEN 28W AND 40W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS GRADUALLY ARE
BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[wxman57]

I always see references to the MJO forecasts, but I could never find anything that show how accurate or inaccurate they are.

Note that there is NO MJO forecast to reach the East Pacific over the coming weeks. If you check the weekly MJO site, they discuss that prediction of some increased convection over the East Pac and Gulf/Caribbean being related to other things, not the MJO.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... update.pdf

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... update.ppt

57,then this MJO graphic is not correct forecasting wet MJO for the Atlantic from the 15th?

http://www.icess.ucsb.edu/asr/MJO.forecast.olr.png

That graphic does not necessarily indicate an MJO impact, as is discussed in the links I posted. Other features can cause increased convection. That graphic may show these other features which are not related to an MJO, even though it says it's "MJO" activity. It's automated.

[underthwx]

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_93.gif
current models....

[GCANE]

Michael:

Most likely, that ridge will stay in place on future runs.

This has GOM-bound written on it.

[Kory]

12z Euro has it moving into the Gulf at 240 hours just off the NW tip of Cuba.

[Frank2]

240 hours or 10 days = science/fiction (lol)...

Looking at the IR loop, it doesn't look as nearly as dire as the TWO is implying - with the exception of one decent but small swirl (92L) and one large swirl that's becoming extratropical (95L), all four invests really aren't that impressive right now:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis-l.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/vis-l.jpg

[Stormcenter]

Exactly in reference to your comment about 10 days = science fiction.

240 hours or 10 days = science/fiction (lol)...

Looking at the IR loop, it doesn't look as nearly as impressive as the TWO is implying - with the exception of one decent but small swirl, all four invests are fairly weak:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

[Frank2]

LOL - usually the NHC doesn't get this picky until October - perhaps the budget mess is making them nervous (lol)...

Really, 92L is very likely to recurve into the mid-Atlantic trough, and 95L is on the way out as an extratropical low, and the other two are very weak, so, really a long TWO for not very much...

Frank2

[BigB0882]

The thing I am most interested in with the models is how the ridging is looking. I don't care or plan on believing if 93L will or will not form into a monster (or at all) but if anything does form, where is it most likely to head? That is what I am taking the most from these models, ATTM. However, even that can hardly be taken for granted and can change.

[cycloneye]

The thing I am most interested in with the models is how the ridging is looking. I don't care or plan on believing if 93L will or will not form into a monster (or at all) but if anything does form, where is it most likely to head? That is what I am taking the most from these models, ATTM. However, even that can hardly be taken for granted and can change.

That is also my following of the models for this invest,because we are the first in line before the CONUS.

[Frank2]

The one thing to remember is that any model run more than 96 hours (4 days) is subject to constant change from run to run and it's useless to get upset over a "monster ridge" that may end up being very weak or absent - many times folks will jump up and down over a feature like that that shows up on the long-range charts - only to find a day or two later that the ridge is no longer there...

So far the Texas high of all summer is holding firm, so any troughiness will be to it's east and west and so far here in South Florida we are without the strong easterlies - a sure sign the ridge to our northeast is absent...

In fact, all of our weather this week has been coming from west to east, so another sign that a trough is present...

Frank

[underthwx]

http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goescolor/goe ... stfull.jpg

thought this was a good pic.