ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[SouthDadeFish]

Not sure it has a LLC, but it's looking good!

[Ivanhater]

50 percent

A SHARP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR
20 MPH. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED...THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS
TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[northjaxpro]

It appears that 92L is approaching 94L rather quickly from the southeast. I have to wonder pretty soon that some interaction with these two systems may occur.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track for 92L

AL, 92, 2011081218, , BEST, 0, 186N, 469W, 30, 1011, DB

[Bobo2000]

2. A SHARP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR
20 MPH. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED...THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS
TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Kohlecane]

I know this is off topic, but what happened to 95L

[Kohlecane]

I know this is off topic, but what happened to 95L

Woops spoke to soon Welcome 6

[MGC]

92L looks to be developing a pretty good circulation. It might be TD 7 soon.....MGC

[Florida1118]

92L looks to be developing a pretty good circulation. It might be TD 7 soon.....MGC

I think 94L will recieve #7...but looks like 92L gets #8 and 93L #9. Im confident these will all develop. We may challenge last years 19...

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[ozonepete]

I think 92L is next at bat - will get TD 7, although it's a close race with 94L. Look at those 2 hot towers that just exploded. There's clearly an LLC now and the big tower towards the bottom right is blowing up right over it.

[leanne_uk]

you can see it starting to wrap itself up.

I cant believe the past 24 hours, starting to get busy it seems.

Lovely pic

[StarmanHDB]

Beautiful hot towers! I'm seeing "Franklin" in his infancy.

[cycloneye]

40%

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR
20 MPH. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME...
AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IT HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

[SouthDadeFish]

Wow I'm surprised they dropped the %...

[StarmanHDB]

40%

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR
20 MPH. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME...
AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IT HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

Yet another example of how looks can be deceiving?

[GCANE]

Interesting that 92L really got creamed after that anomaly occurred.

[cycloneye]

30%

A WELL-DEFINED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A
SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM
IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING...BUT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT AROUND 20 MPH.

[Extratropical94]

Up to 40%

A WELL-DEFINED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 525 MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS GRADUALLY SHOWING
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

[Extratropical94]

1800 UTC Best Track is down to 20 knots:

AL, 92, 2011081318, , BEST, 0, 190N, 540W, 20, 1013, DB

[Aric Dunn]

going to go out on a limb here and say 92L wont ever develop... lol