ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[HurricaneWarning92]

honestly, im getting a bit irritated that it is almost mid August, and yet these so-called "good looking" waves still struggle once they get in the central Atlantic, either because of SAL, shear and the list goes on... Cmon mother nature wake up!

[Chigger_Lopez]

The last few frames from satelite give me the impression that this is about to pull itself together soon. It just has that LOOK about it. Check it out.

[HurricaneWarning92]

The last few frames from satelite give me the impression that this is about to pull itself together soon. It just has that LOOK about it. Check it out.

man.. i wish i was as optimistic as you are lol cause i dont see anything other than some rotation with barely any convection. But i hope you are right.

[SoupBone]

honestly, im getting a bit irritated that it is almost mid August, and yet these so-called "good looking" waves still struggle once they get in the central Atlantic, either because of SAL, shear and the list goes on... Cmon mother nature wake up!

I believe 2005 spoiled us so to speak, but I also know that this is far from being close to over.

With that said, bring on this!

[HURAKAN]

Even in 2005, most tropical waves didn't develop!!

[Macrocane]

Wow the board is so quiet, I can't believe nobody has mentioned this yet, now that would be a drought buster:



By the way I know it's still on the very long range but it deserves mentioning.

[SoupBone]

Even in 2005, most tropical waves didn't develop!!

I just meant the sheer overwhelming numbers.

[South Texas Storms]

Yes please!

[ROCK]

Wow the board is so quiet, I can't believe nobody has mentioned this yet, now that would be a drought buster:



By the way I know it's still on the very long range but it deserves mentioning.

no I saw it but again 300hr GFS is like winning the lotto.....

[ROCK]

EURO fixing to come out....woohoo!! very exciting time....

[ConvergenceZone]

honestly, im getting a bit irritated that it is almost mid August, and yet these so-called "good looking" waves still struggle once they get in the central Atlantic, either because of SAL, shear and the list goes on... Cmon mother nature wake up!

If by the first week of September we still aren't looking at much, then I would start to reduce numbers, but things can pop in a hurry....
Of couse they also recently said it will be a very active August. We'll, it's almost mid August and we're waiting. Perhaps they meant the last week of August...lol

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Down to 20%

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING ONLY LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[SoupBone]

honestly, im getting a bit irritated that it is almost mid August, and yet these so-called "good looking" waves still struggle once they get in the central Atlantic, either because of SAL, shear and the list goes on... Cmon mother nature wake up!

If by the first week of September we still aren't looking at much, then I would start to reduce numbers, but things can pop in a hurry....
Of couse they also recently said it will be a very active August. We'll, it's almost mid August and we're waiting. Perhaps they meant the last week of August...lol

Yeah but you can't look at this and think the season is anything but active.

[ConvergenceZone]

Down to 20%

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING ONLY LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Yep, totally saw this coming...We'll see if it will go down to 10 or 0 or perhaps they will just hold it at 20%
At least it's starting to look better for the islands now. We'll see if once this tropical wave gets into the Western Carib if it has a shot.

[ROCK]

0z NOGAPS is still jacked up....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical


look at the potential in the GOM....ouch

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[Vortex]

Could be a serious WGOM cane...waiitng on euro but the gfs is more consistent with a caribean cruiser all the way to mexico/texas....

[ROCK]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP000.gif

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP024.gif

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP024.gif


no much to look at...

[ROCK]

Could be a serious WGOM cane...waiitng on euro but the gfs is more consistent with a caribean cruiser all the way to mexico/texas....

it showed this in the long range a few days ago....most mostly on the 6z and 18z....this is the first time I have seen on the 0z.....but again 300hr is la la land....


doesnt look like the 0z GFDL ran for 93L tonight? if so I cant find it...

[ROCK]

nope they didnt run 93L 0z...which is strange...here is 92L and you can see 93L cruising the carib.....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[ROCK]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP120.gif


in the carib....

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP120.gif

falling apart right on cue....