ATL : GERT - Remnants - Discussion

#21 Postby **fci** » Fri Aug 12, 2011 12:06 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:hehe.. funny

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

Cool tool.
Thanks for posting!

#22 Postby **Ivanhater** » Fri Aug 12, 2011 1:07 pm

20 percent

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT 700 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

#23 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Aug 12, 2011 1:47 pm

18z Best Track for 94L

AL, 94, 2011081218, , BEST, 0, 246N, 555W, 25, 1013, DB

#24 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Fri Aug 12, 2011 3:44 pm

Looks to be getting a nice spin itself:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rgb.html

Code orange at 8pm?

Aric Dunn · #25 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Fri Aug 12, 2011 3:51 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:Looks to be getting a nice spin itself:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rgb.html

Code orange at 8pm?

yeah the LLC is becoming more defined and a TD by tomorrow is not out the realm of possibility.

#26 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Fri Aug 12, 2011 3:55 pm

I definitely see SW inflow coming into some sort of circulation. It would ironic if both 94L and 95L got classified before 92L and 93L.

#27 Postby **northjaxpro** » Fri Aug 12, 2011 4:01 pm

I am wondering about how much interaction may occur with 94L and 92L, which appears to me to be quickly approaching from the southeast. Also, I agree that 94L is looking a bit better in trying to organize this afternoon.

Aric Dunn · #28 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Fri Aug 12, 2011 4:01 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:I definitely see SW inflow coming into some sort of circulation. It would ironic if both 94L and 95L got classified before 92L and 93L.

its looking that way. both 92l and 93L are very sick looking and dont think they will develop for a couple more days at least if at all

Kohlecane · #29 Postby **Kohlecane** » Fri Aug 12, 2011 4:02 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:I definitely see SW inflow coming into some sort of circulation. It would ironic if both 94L and 95L got classified before 92L and 93L.

i was thinking the same thing, both are looking slightly more Organized, well TD6 is a given :grrr:

#30 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Fri Aug 12, 2011 5:00 pm

Not sure if this is significant or not, but they just shifted the one of the RAMSDIS floaters from 92L to 94L. Also word is a T.C.F.A. went out for 94L.

#31 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Fri Aug 12, 2011 5:20 pm

We now have surface obs showing a WSW wind. Worthy of code red in my opinion.

bob rulz · #32 Postby **bob rulz** » Fri Aug 12, 2011 5:31 pm

I would say at least 50% at 9pm, although there's still a few hours for it to organize even more before then.

#33 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Aug 12, 2011 6:34 pm

30%

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED
ABOUT 675 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD HAS BECOME
A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SLOW
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW
MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

#34 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Fri Aug 12, 2011 6:36 pm

Only 30%.... lol.... I'm thinking probably due to a lack of model support.

Adoquín · #35 Postby **Adoquín** » Fri Aug 12, 2011 8:50 pm

NAM 18z shows a fairly large low approaching the northeastern Cuban coast. Maybe it was actually 94 the models were picking up on and not really 93 at that place near Cuba in the earlier models. Wonder what would happen if it crossed all the way into the Caribbean. A first for me to see happen

Aric Dunn · #36 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Fri Aug 12, 2011 11:00 pm

It's pretty apparent that we have a td. Just waiting on either visible or some more convetion

#37 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Aug 13, 2011 6:50 am

30%

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA
IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Aric Dunn · #38 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Aug 13, 2011 7:58 am

Showing signs of organizing !! ... really ...really .... I guess the well defined LLC and convection is not longer the case for a TC. now given the convection is minimal it is however continuing to rebuild.... we have seen so many less organized systems be classified, and they did not even bring up the percentages.. lol somethings funny here

Aric Dunn · #39 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Aug 13, 2011 8:01 am

Something interesting to note... the system actually split.. with an area of convection still heading wsw to SW and well i guess I will just call it a non classified tropical low thats moving W. models still want to try and do something with the area thats heading wsw. going to be interesting.

looks like a weak circ is starting to develop with the area still moving wsw.... 22.13° N 65.81° W

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

#40 Postby **NDG** » Sat Aug 13, 2011 9:31 am

All it needs is some more deep convection for TD# 7 to be declared.

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