ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS...Nasty looking 'Cane!

[ROCK]

So Rock how does treated sewerwater taste?

I try not to think about it....

[ROCK]

12Z GFS showing large mass of water pouring over my house.....one can only dream...

side note- the 0z CMC from last night finally showed 93L closing off under Jam....nice to see...

I dont think I could get any wetter than that run...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_300l.gif

[ROCK]

12Z NOGAPS for entertainment as we wait for the rest of the models to come in....interesting to see the 94L 12Z GFDL run and see if 93L is still in the carib...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Extratropical94]

Interesting that the NOGAPS run develops the system that broke off 94L the most.

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks like the 12Z NOGAPS brings 93L over Hispaniola and through the Bahamas heading for South Florida...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Kory]

12Z GFS showing large mass of water pouring over my house.....one can only dream...
side note- the 0z CMC from last night finally showed 93L closing off under Jam....nice to see...

I dont think I could get any wetter than that run...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_300l.gif

Eventually the pattern of dryness is going to break over Texas and this may be the event that could break it. It can't stay dry forever...


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[Kory]

The GFS is showing a trough digging down when 93L is in the west Caribbean. The Gulf Coast will be need to be vigilant the next week or so.

[underthwx]

Ive read the NWS Forecast Discussion discussion Key West, and of note to me, no mention of 93L at this time.

[Extratropical94]

Latest visible:


Whoops, where has it gone?! I think this will cause the NHC to lower the percentage even further.

[Blown Away]

Some slight popcorn convection in the area of the broad circulation. Compared to a few hours ago, IMO 93L is slightly better. Still think NHC continues keeping chances low at the TWO.

[floridasun78]

this look like emily track http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/plo ... _anim.html

[Blown Away]

Interesting, latest 72 hour TAFB drops "Possible Tropical Cyclone" but keeps 93L as a low and moves it NW towards the NE Caribbean.

[HurricaneWarning92]

LOL funny to think that about 2 days ago 93L looked the best of all... It had strong convection around while 92L was struggling with dry air. What happened to "92L taking all the dry air while helping moist the atmosphere so 93L develops"?... Now, all i can do is...

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

2PM TWO

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

[CourierPR]

The GFS is showing a trough digging down when 93L is in the west Caribbean. The Gulf Coast will be need to be vigilant the next week or so.

Kory, not to rain on your parade, but it's not a sure bet that the system will be in the Caribbean.

[underthwx]

The GFS is showing a trough digging down when 93L is in the west Caribbean. The Gulf Coast will be need to be vigilant the next week or so.

Kory, not to rain on your parade, but it's not a sure bet that the system will be in the Caribbean.

Sorry Kory, but I have to agree. Our forecast here is pretty dismal,hot dry weather as far as we can see.

[SouthDadeFish]

12Z Euro keeps 93L weak and into CA, while it tries to develop a wave behind 93L once it enters the Caribbean. Interesting.

[BigB0882]

I am starting to think these systems (93L especially) will have to be sacrificial lambs in order to moisten up the environment. Is that the reason Euro doesn't develop? SSTs are not a problem so it has to be shear or dry air or a combination of both.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 131752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N33W TO 12N34W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE LIES E OF AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EVIDENT IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WHILE THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY
INACTIVE AND HAS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION...MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS ENHANCED CONVECTION AND SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE WAVE IN A
FEW DAYS.


$$
WALTON