Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
243 PM AST SAT AUG 13 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT TO TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION TO REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH...AND ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANYING A TROPICAL
WAVE NOW NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS...MOVES WESTWARD THEN
NORTHWEST...AS THEY BOTH RIDE THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG
ATLANTIC HIGH ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC. A TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 33 WEST IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER DEVELOP AND REACH THE LESSER
ANTILLES BY EARLY TUESDAY...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ELONGATED TROUGH AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. THE PREVAILING
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL HELP TRANSPORT LOW TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE ISLANDS INTO THE EVENING HOURS
BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE ALL SEEM TO AGREE ON A DRIER TREND BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE/DISTURBANCE NORTHEAST
OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS IS FORECAST TO PULL FURTHER NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS BY EARLY MONDAY...WITHOUT HAVING A DIRECT AFFECT ON THE
LOCAL REGION. HOWEVER...A BROAD CONVERGENCE BAND CREATED BY THIS
WAVE AND THAT LOCATED NEAR 33 WEST...WILL BRING A QUICK SURGE OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER CONDITIONS JUST AHEAD OF THE LATTER MENTIONED
WAVE WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE TO 2.00 INCHES OR MORE BY WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE BETTER CHANCES
FOR ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK AS THE WAVE MOVES JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. WILL HOWEVER REMAIN
CONSERVATIVE ON THE WEATHER AND POPS FOR NOW AS THIS FEATURE IS STILL
WAY OUT IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND MODELS WILL FURTHER ADJUST WITH
TIME. FROM NOW UNTIL THEN...EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS...ALONG
WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED
EACH DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
AND WILL AFFECT PARTS OF PR AND USVI. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDS AND GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
TIST...TISX AND POSSIBLY TJSJ AND TJMZ AT LEAST UNTIL 13/23Z.
LLVL WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE ENE AT 10 TO 20 KTS...WITH WIND
GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS NEAR TSRA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 78 90 / 20 30 20 30
STT 78 89 79 88 / 20 30 20 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
518 AM AST SUN AUG 14 2011

.SYNOPSIS...THE LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH AFFECTED THE LOCAL
REGION ON SATURDAY...CONTINUED TO MOVE WEST AND AWAY FROM THE
LOCAL REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL WATERS...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT AFFECTED THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA CONTINUE D TO MOVE WEST AFFECTING THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE HISPANIOLA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
TO THIS FEATURE CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OVER THE LOCAL REGION...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO
INTERACT WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH MID MORNING THEREFORE MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
CONCENTRATE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO...MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ALSO CU LINES COULD
DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND EL YUNQUE. THE YUNQUE STREAMER
COULD STRETCH NORTHWEST AFFECTING THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA.
THE LACK OF MOISTURE COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT
IT WILL BE MORE SIGNIFICANT TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW LOCATED AT AROUND 23 N AND 57 WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THIS
FEATURE WILL REACH OUR LOCAL WATERS ON TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
ALSO INCREASE WIND ACROSS THE REGION. A TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED
AT AROUND 48 WEST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ALTHOUGH THE NHC IS GIVING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...THIS
WAVE WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST 14/16Z. BETWEEN 14/16Z-14/22Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS TJBQ...TJMZ...AND POSSIBLE TJSJ IN
SHRA/TSRA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEA
BREEZE DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON IN COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...TARNQUIL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY. INCREASING WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL GENERATE CHOPPY
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 91 80 / 50 20 30 0
STT 88 78 90 81 / 30 10 30 20

[Macrocane]

The last 3 days have been pretty rainy in El Salvador, these are the highest rainfall amounts registered during those days:

August 11
Cerron Grande: 106.3 mm/4.19 inches

August 12
University of El Salvador (San Salvador): 97 mm/3.82 inches The wettest day of the year in this station

August 13
Metapan: 40.2 mm/1.58 inches

Fortunately they have not produced any major damage.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST SUN AUG 14 2011

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN EXTENDING
NORTHWARDS INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...ALONG WITH NEWLY NAMED
TROPICAL STORM GERT...AND ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION...WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN OVERALL
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED WELL EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER A WIND SURGE JUST NORTH AND AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL REACH THE
LOCAL REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING BRINGING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GPS DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER MET DAT ACROSS PR AND ADJACENT
ISLANDS WERE NOW BETWEEN 1.70 AND 1.85 INCHES...WHILE TFFR 12Z SOUNDING
SHOWED EVEN DRIER WITH PWAT VALUES DOWN TO 1.50 INCHES OR SO. THIS
DRYING TREND WAS ALSO APPARENT ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
WHICH DEPICTED MAINLY SHALLOW FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER
EXPECT LIMITED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. FEW TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMINDER OF THE ISLANDS BUT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE OF SHORT DURATION.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN OVERALL DRYING TREND THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY FOLLOWED BY BRIEF WIND SURGE ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION MAINLY DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS. THEREAFTER...GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH PWAT VALUES TO
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO 2.00 INCHES OR MORE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE...WHICH SO FAR SHOULD PASS
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...EXPECT PERIPHERAL MOISTURE TO BE
BROUGHT IN ACROSS THE REGION BY THE MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES. THIS
ALONG WITH A TUTT LOW WHICH WILL SAG SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN BY WEDNESDAY...COMBINED WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SOME ENHANCED EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS PUERTO RICO. UNTIL THEN...MOSTLY SUNNY
AND FAIR WEATHER WITH ONLY LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
EXPECTED IS FORECAST ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER NW PR MAY LEAD PERIODS OF
MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDS IN AND AROUND TJBQ BTWN 18Z AND 22Z. MTN
OBSCN ARE ALSO LIKELY OVER THE WEST INTERIOR OF PR. LATEST SJU MDCRS
AT 1725Z SHOWS WINDS MAINLY FROM THE SE AT 15 KTS OR LESS BTWN SFC
AND 20 KFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 79 90 / 20 30 20 20
STT 79 90 81 92 / 10 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1010 PM AST SUN AUG 14 2011

.SYNOPSIS...TROUGH OF LOW PRES EXTENDING FROM TS GERT SWD TO THE
MONA PASSAGE WILL WEAKEN OVR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE STRENGHTENING ACROSS THE ATLC. TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE ERN CARIBBEAN TUE AND BRING SQUALLY WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MUCH DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS TO MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT AND MON AS SEEN ON BLENDED TPW IMAGERY. CURRENT SHOWERS
AND ISOLD TSTMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT LEAVING WAY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SUNRISE. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULED OUT AN ISOLD
SHRA OR TSRA TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS NW PR BUT EXPECTING A
MOSTLY DRY DAY.

SHOWERS AND TSTMS PRECEDING A TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE ANTILLES
(FORMER INVEST AL93) WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN COASTAL
WATERS AND USVI AFTER 21Z MON AND THEN SPREAD QUICKLY WWD MON
NIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A RAPID INCREASE IN
PW...K INDEX AND H85 THETAE AFTER 00Z TUE SO EXPECTING A NOTABLE
INCREASE IN CONVECTION MON NIGHT WHICH COULD BE QUITE STRONG.
BIGGEST CONCERN IS FOR SQUALLY AND/OR POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER
ESPECIALLY TUE DUE TO STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS IN THE LOWEST 3KM
AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IS ALSO QUITE
STRONG WHICH COULD SUPPORT SHORT LINES OR BOWS AND/OR GENERATE STRONG
FAST MOVING OUTFLOWS. EXPECTED FAST STORM MOTION CLOSE TO 25 KNOTS
SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION/FLASH FLOODING THREAT. LOOKS
LIKE UNSETTTLED WX WILL REMAIN THROUGH THU WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS WITH NO WEATHER. INCREASING
CHANCES FOR TSRA EASTERN PR/USVI AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. TSTMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ALL WATERS TUE-WED AS TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CARIB WATERS. SEVERE TSTMS ALSO POSSIBLE AND
MARINERS SHOULD PAY ATTENTION AS SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE
REQUIRED.

[Gustywind]

For those who lived in Martinica and Guadeloupe ... Yellow alert for strong showers and thunderstorms have been requiered at 6AM.
Looks like wet wetter conditions should spread til Wednesday before an improvement Thursday. Stay tuned. Anymway, i will keep you informed during the day if anything happens.
http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/bulletin/vi ... ilance.php

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
439 AM AST MON AUG 15 2011

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WES AND ENTER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN
ON TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL BE PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SQUALLY
WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING ONLY PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. A DRYER AIR MASS IS ALREADY MAKING ITS WAY
OVER THE LOCAL REGION AND THE MOISTURE CONTENT IS FORECAST TO EVEN
GO LOWER FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. THEREFORE THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND WILL BE REACHING OUR LOCAL WATERS
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. SQUALLY WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...LOCAL ISLANDS AND EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO FROM LATE MONDAY NIGH THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST 15/16Z. BETWEEN 15/16Z-15/22Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ. IN ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SEA BREEZE DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON IN COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING WINDS ASSOCIATED TO A TROPICAL
WAVE NOW LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS ON MONDAY NIGHT...GENERATING CHOPPY SEAS
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORM OF SQUALL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ON EFFECT STARTING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 90 79 / 0 50 50 30
STT 90 79 90 81 / 10 60 30 40

[msbee]

Looks like weather coming our way



St. Lucia reports heavy rain

http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/stlucia.shtml

Invest 93 is back!

[Gustywind]

Tropical Activity between Africa and the Lesser Antilles...

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
336 PM AST MON AUG 15 2011

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE IT DRIFTS FURTHER WEST SOUTHWEST INTO THE
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY MID WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. AN ACTIVE TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 56 WEST THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS IT MOVES QUICKLY WESTWARD ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT...AND ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. PRESENTLY THIS FEATURE SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS UP
TO AS MUCH AS 30 MPH OR SO PREVIOUSLY REPORTED BY A FEW OF THE ISLANDS
AND SURROUNDING BUOY JUST WEST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXCEPT FOR THE EXPLOSIVE LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS THE WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...SO FAR FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILED ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLANDS. A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR AND SAHARAN DUST WAS NOTED ON LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SPREADING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC JUST NORTH OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED
TROPICAL WAVE. HOWEVER...EXPECT A RAPID CHANGE IN THE LOCAL
WEATHER PATTERN OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS INCREASING CLOUDINESS
AND MOISTURE FROM THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE LARGE TROPICAL WAVE WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION. IN ADDITION...A WIND SURGE AND
BAND OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PRECEDE THE WAVE OVERNIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOME OF WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SQUALLY
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND QUICK BURSTS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...BASED ON THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE...DO NOT
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AT THIS TIME... AS NO DIRECT IMPACT IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS WAVE. PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS OF 35 MPH OR MORE WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN LIKELY IN ADVANCE OF AND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE...WITH
THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE VIRGIN ISLES AND
EASTERN PUERTO RICO BY EARLY MORNING. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN
SPREAD TO THE WEST ACROSS THE REST OF PUERTO RICO LATER IN THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL PR AND
VI TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 16/00Z...WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ IN SHRA/TSRA BTW 15/18Z-15/22Z.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR TSRA ACROSS EASTERN PR/USVI STILL EXPECTED
AFTER 16/00Z WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30KTS. TEMPO MVFR CONDITION ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK AFT 15/20Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 79 90 / 50 50 30 50
STT 79 90 81 90 / 60 30 40 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
856 PM AST MON AUG 15 2011

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE
AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. TROPICAL WAVE NOW ACROSS THE ERN
CARIBBEAN SEA WILL MOVE WWD OVR THE NEXT 24 HRS AND BRING SQUALLY
WX TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IMPRESSIVE TSTMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE
THE DRY AIR WITH SVRL REPORTS OF TREES DOWN IN SAN SEBASTIAN AND UTUADO.
TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT PER BLENDED TPW IMAGERY AND MODEL H85 THETAE. THIS TO
SUPPORT RISK OF TSRA ALL NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CARIB WATERS
AND USVI WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING IN CVRG TOWARD DAWN. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS...MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND MID-LVL DRY AIR. FAST STORM MOTION AND MID LEVEL
DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND THUS POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING. UNSETTLED WX WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED. THINGS IMPROVE
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THU.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT ERN TERMINALS AND
USVI/LEEWARDS WITH RISK OF TSRA. TSTMS MORE LIKELY TOMORROW WITH
WITH RISK OF SEVERE WX/DAMAGING WINDS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS AND WINDS WILL BUILD LATE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH SCA CONDITIONS XPCD ESPECIALLY CARIBBEAN SEA AND
PASSAGES. TSTMS MAY ALSO POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND WATERSPOUTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 79 90 / 50 50 40 50
STT 79 90 81 90 / 60 30 50 40

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
502 AM AST TUE AUG 16 2011

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. TROPICAL WAVE NOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA WILL MOVE WEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AND BRING SQUALLY WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED TO A
STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...NOW LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...
HAVE AFFECTED THE EASTERN WATERS AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE AVERAGE SPEED OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS 25
KNOTS. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THESE SHOWERS HAVE PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS
...DUE TO THE FAST STORM MOTION...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN LOW.
THE FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHER AS RAIN BANDS BECOME MORE
FREQUENT THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL THE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ASSOCIATED TO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERS TOMS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE
DECREASED CONSIDERABLY AT AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT NEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE APPEARED AS THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM MOVES
CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN.

THE NHC GIVE THIS WAVE A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
TKPK...TNCM...TIST...TISX AND TJSJ DURING THE MORNING HOURS IN
PASSING SHRA. FOR THIS AFTERNOON TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS TJSJ...TJPS...TJMZ...AND TJBQ IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT 15 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE AS A STRONG
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS WAVE WILL
GENERATE SQUALLY WEATHER CONDITIONS AS RAIN BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS...MAINLY THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. A WIND
SURGE BEHIND THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL RESULT IN A FURTHER INCREASE
IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 79 89 79 / 50 50 30 20
STT 90 80 91 81 / 60 50 40 20

[Gustywind]

CARIBBEAN SHAKEN BY MORE EARTHQUAKES

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR AUGUST 08, 2011
http://www.earthquakesummary.info/

The activation of the Caribbean Antilles which began with an M 5.0-5.3 in the Saint Lucia region yesterday continued today with earthquakes of M 4.5 in Barbados of the Windward Islands and M 4.4 in the Dominica Region of the Leeward Islands as well as an M 3.8 in Dominican Republic – part of a strong activation of that region which began when Emily passed through the region two days ago. These events appear to be migrating up to plate boundary to the north and may be preceding a strong earthquake in the Virgin Island to Puerto Rico regions. This activation may be related to the strong geomagnetic storm which occurred three days beginning when this area was subsolar. An M3.5 solar flare today would have reinforced this triggering effect in the region. That flare occurred at 18:10 UT when the region was near sub-solar. The earthquake of M 3.8 in the Dominican Republic hit several minutes after this flare at 18:35 UT and was likely triggered by it. A second M2.5 solar flare hit at 04:00 UT while the region of Dominica was direct anti-solar, another time of maximum Solar Flare effects (SFE). The earthquake in the Dominica region occurred an hour later and also was likely triggered by this solar flare. The earthquake in Barbados is the strongest in that region since a similar M 4.5-4.6 earthquake hit on May 24, 2009. Like the Dominica event, it is located at the third node (120 degrees) from the strong earthquake of M 7.6 in the Kermadec Islands last month. The Barbados event is also located at exactly 90.00 degrees from the M 7.4 in the Fox Islands, the last major earthquake in the western Hemisphere.

[msbee]

CARIBBEAN SHAKEN BY MORE EARTHQUAKES

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR AUGUST 08, 2011
http://www.earthquakesummary.info/

The activation of the Caribbean Antilles which began with an M 5.0-5.3 in the Saint Lucia region yesterday continued today with earthquakes of M 4.5 in Barbados of the Windward Islands and M 4.4 in the Dominica Region of the Leeward Islands as well as an M 3.8 in Dominican Republic – part of a strong activation of that region which began when Emily passed through the region two days ago. These events appear to be migrating up to plate boundary to the north and may be preceding a strong earthquake in the Virgin Island to Puerto Rico regions. This activation may be related to the strong geomagnetic storm which occurred three days beginning when this area was subsolar. An M3.5 solar flare today would have reinforced this triggering effect in the region. That flare occurred at 18:10 UT when the region was near sub-solar. The earthquake of M 3.8 in the Dominican Republic hit several minutes after this flare at 18:35 UT and was likely triggered by it. A second M2.5 solar flare hit at 04:00 UT while the region of Dominica was direct anti-solar, another time of maximum Solar Flare effects (SFE). The earthquake in the Dominica region occurred an hour later and also was likely triggered by this solar flare. The earthquake in Barbados is the strongest in that region since a similar M 4.5-4.6 earthquake hit on May 24, 2009. Like the Dominica event, it is located at the third node (120 degrees) from the strong earthquake of M 7.6 in the Kermadec Islands last month. The Barbados event is also located at exactly 90.00 degrees from the M 7.4 in the Fox Islands, the last major earthquake in the western Hemisphere.

interesting. we have not had any reports of anything here recently though.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
353 PM AST TUE AUG 16 2011

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS AS THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. TROPICAL WAVE NOW SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AND
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING INCLEMENT WEATHER THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT.


&&

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
BROUGHT SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE LOCAL AREA. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS WERE OBSERVED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT AS THIS
TROPICAL WAVE PASSES. STRONG WIND GUSTS OF OVER 40 KNOTS WERE
OBSERVED IN SAINT CROIX AND LA PARGUERA WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS HAVE NOT BEEN
IMPRESSIVE DUE TO THE QUICK WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THESE CELLS.

AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES...A MOIST AND HUMID AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH PW VALUES CLOSE TO 2.0 INCHES AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOME INSTABILITY WHICH COULD HELP
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS MAINLAND
PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...PASSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS MODELS INDICATE A
PATTERN IN WHICH SHOWERS WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS
THE SURROUNDING WATERS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN
PUERTO RICO. FOR THE AFTERNOONS...BOTH MODELS ALSO SUGGEST
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MAINLAND PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
TJSJ...TJPS...TJMZ...AND TJBQ IN SHRA/TSRA THROUGH EVENING HOURS.
VCSH AT MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT 15 TO
20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS...NEAR 30 KTS IN SHRA/TSRA.

[Gustywind]

Hey Barbara, be aware the Northern Leewards are now under an yellow alert for strong showers and tstorms since 5PM.
Gustywind

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1005 PM AST TUE AUG 16 2011

.UPDATE...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...NWS DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR REGIONAL WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE
MONA PASSAGE. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL
AREA TONIGHT...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL
EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL
AS OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS. MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT
TERM GRIDS TO MATCH THE CURRENT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

[msbee]

Hey Barbara, be aware the Northern Leewards are now under an yellow alert for strong showers and tstorms since 5PM.
Gustywind

Hi Gusty
I had seen that, thanks
but we got nothing here. we has one strong shower just around 5 and since then nothing. guess we are escaping the worst of it. how are things in Guadeloupe?

[abajan]

CARIBBEAN SHAKEN BY MORE EARTHQUAKES

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR AUGUST 08, 2011
http://www.earthquakesummary.info/

The activation of the Caribbean Antilles which began with an M 5.0-5.3 in the Saint Lucia region yesterday continued today with earthquakes of M 4.5 in Barbados of the Windward Islands and M 4.4 in the Dominica Region of the Leeward Islands as well as an M 3.8 in Dominican Republic – part of a strong activation of that region which began when Emily passed through the region two days ago. These events appear to be migrating up to plate boundary to the north and may be preceding a strong earthquake in the Virgin Island to Puerto Rico regions. This activation may be related to the strong geomagnetic storm which occurred three days beginning when this area was subsolar. An M3.5 solar flare today would have reinforced this triggering effect in the region. That flare occurred at 18:10 UT when the region was near sub-solar. The earthquake of M 3.8 in the Dominican Republic hit several minutes after this flare at 18:35 UT and was likely triggered by it. A second M2.5 solar flare hit at 04:00 UT while the region of Dominica was direct anti-solar, another time of maximum Solar Flare effects (SFE). The earthquake in the Dominica region occurred an hour later and also was likely triggered by this solar flare. The earthquake in Barbados is the strongest in that region since a similar M 4.5-4.6 earthquake hit on May 24, 2009. Like the Dominica event, it is located at the third node (120 degrees) from the strong earthquake of M 7.6 in the Kermadec Islands last month. The Barbados event is also located at exactly 90.00 degrees from the M 7.4 in the Fox Islands, the last major earthquake in the western Hemisphere.

This is the first I've heard of this. I didn't feel a thing.

[Gustywind]

Good morning. Another vigorous twave expected for the end of the week.

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 170900
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST WED AUG 17 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TUTT LOW NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
WILL RELOCATE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY AS HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT REMAINS IN PLACE AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE AS TUTT LOW APPROACHES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MIMIC PWAT IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AREA OF DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES. THIS AREA OF
HIGH MOISTURE...ALONG WITH THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT LEAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH MODELS SHOWING MOST ACTIVE WEATHER
DEVELOPING OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND CENTRAL/WESTERN PUERTO RICO
IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST MODELS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH IMPROVEMENT
IN THE WEATHER CONDITIONS UNTIL FRIDAY...DUE TO THE INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE. A RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND USVI. NEVERTHELESS...ON SUNDAY...GFS SHOWS THE NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE AND OR LOW PRES SYSTEM APPROACHING THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ACTIVE
AND SQUALLY WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL TODAY. GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF
MVFR AT TAF SITES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THU IS AT TJMZ ALONG WITH
INTERIOR WESTERN PR MOUNTAINS AS WINDS WILL BE DOWNWIND OF
STRONGEST SFC HEATING AND RESULTANT CONVECTION. WIND TO FL200 WILL
BE E 15-25 KT TODAY AND 10-20 KT ON THU.

&&

.MARINE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS FOR WINDS UP TO 22 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 8
FEET OR LESS. EXPECT LITTLE OR NO CHANGE TO THIS SCA CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 89 78 / 30 40 40 40
STT 89 80 90 80 / 50 50 50 50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...SCA FOR AMZ-710.
VI...SCA FOR AMZ-710.

&&

$$

54/11