ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

30%

A WELL-DEFINED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 525 MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

[SouthDadeFish]

Starting to look better?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-avn.html

[ozonepete]

going to go out on a limb here and say 92L wont ever develop... lol

rarely disagree with you, Aric, but I think this will.

[SouthDadeFish]

92L looks better than TD 7 from an IR point of view. Is that a comma shape I see? Seems to have really gotten better the last few hours:



Then again vorticity if very poor with it.

http://www.canefever.com/#!at-a-glance/vstc1=vorticity

[Brent]

Uh wow. I can't believe the TWO stayed at 30

[ozonepete]

Pretty impressive to me.

[KWT]

Its got a decent amount of curvature but convection is somewhat lacking for the time being...

Still has a chance once it gets further NW though, much like Franklin and TD7...

Seems to be the season of systems above 25N at the moment in the open Atlantic

[ROCK]

too close to GERT IMO....competeting for the same moisture envelope. Have to side with Aric on this one....Gert won this round...IMO....

[ROCK]

barfed up an outflow boundary to the north...and now convection streaming into Gert's circulation.....

GERT just injested 92L.....

[Florida1118]

barfed up an outflow boundary to the north...and now convection streaming into Gert's circulation.....

GERT just injested 92L.....

Yeah, appears the Vorticity is currently being sucked in. Bye bye 92L.

[supercane]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 150533
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GERT...LOCATED ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO PROXIMITY TO
TROPICAL STORM GERT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

Another one bites the dust!

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ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 922011.ren