ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#541 Postby Rainband » Sat Aug 13, 2011 9:20 pm

sal
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#542 Postby Adoquín » Sat Aug 13, 2011 9:32 pm

I just looked at water vapor levels and they seem to suggest improving conditions with respect to the dry air north of 93 and west of 92. So long as there is spin there is still opportunity, do not understand why I do not see a corresponding decrease in SAL, but if there is more humid air and warner temps in her way, I want to watch it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#543 Postby Ptarmigan » Sat Aug 13, 2011 9:35 pm

ROCK wrote:

well said Portastorm......interesting that 18Z GFS has backed off similar to the 12Z EURO......

but look at this sucker at 384HR... :eek: :eek: that is IKE / IVAN like in size. Huge circulation!!! sorry OT I couldnt resist...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_384l.gif


The 12 day GFS model backs off and the 16 day model shows a large storm. This gets interesting.
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#544 Postby Jevo » Sat Aug 13, 2011 9:36 pm

Did someone say SAL....... He's a beast

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#545 Postby underthwx » Sat Aug 13, 2011 9:37 pm

[quote="WeatherLovingDoc"]"underthwx ... it is the GFS which is the main American medium-range computer model. This model and the European are considered the two major medium-range computer models. "

All reasonable posts are welcomed here, underthwx. You did well in your question, as it taught me, and maybe others, what the main weather community medium-range computer models are. I didn't know what Portastorm mentioned, and your questioned helped enlighten me.

Many of us keep low profiles, and stumble repetitively over weather words. For example, no matter how many times I try to grasp the difference between "trough" and "ridge" I stumble. One day I think I get it, then realize I don't. I'm a visual thinker and will be happy when the day comes when I finally truly understand their difference.

Keep on posting, and welcome!
Last edited by underthwx on Tue Aug 16, 2011 5:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#546 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sat Aug 13, 2011 9:53 pm

Yea, it's almost went poof completely.....Whether it will come back or not, who knows, but it's also very possible that we may not hear from 93L again.....
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#547 Postby HurricaneBelle » Sat Aug 13, 2011 9:54 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:but it's also very possible that we may not hear from 93L again.....


Not for another eight invests at least.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#548 Postby srainhoutx » Sat Aug 13, 2011 10:06 pm

93L has not been deactivated...

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#549 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 13, 2011 10:38 pm

Who said 93L was dead? :) Look at the anticyclone that is in the area.

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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#550 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sat Aug 13, 2011 10:40 pm

cycloneye wrote:Who said 93L was dead? :) Look at the anticyclone that is in the area.



Also, vorticity has increased with 93L:

Image

Don't call it a comeback because it was never gone! :lol:
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#551 Postby Blown Away » Sat Aug 13, 2011 10:44 pm

Currently has the most convection I've seen all day.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html
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Re: Re:

#552 Postby Tireman4 » Sat Aug 13, 2011 10:44 pm

'CaneFreak wrote:NOPE...cause Wxman didn't say it... :P :P :cheesy: :ggreen:

Jevo wrote:Image


Until Wxman 57 states it, I do not believe it. "nuff said!!!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#553 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 13, 2011 10:46 pm

Since IVAN is MIA.. :D ..I decided to post the NAM at 84hr......93L coming into the picture

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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#554 Postby Blown Away » Sat Aug 13, 2011 10:46 pm

IMO, we are seeing the beginning of 93L's comeback!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#555 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 13, 2011 10:48 pm

0Z GFS coming in to start tonights runs....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_018l.gif


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

I see some sprinkles out there in the carib.... :D
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#556 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Sat Aug 13, 2011 10:51 pm

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N37W TO 10N36W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE LIES E OF AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EVIDENT IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WHILE THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY
INACTIVE AND HAS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION...MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS ENHANCED CONVECTION AND SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE WAVE IN A
FEW DAYS.
:roll:
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#557 Postby Blown Away » Sat Aug 13, 2011 10:57 pm

HURRICANELONNY wrote:TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N37W TO 10N36W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE LIES E OF AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EVIDENT IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WHILE THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY
INACTIVE AND HAS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION...MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS ENHANCED CONVECTION AND SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE WAVE IN A
FEW DAYS.
:roll:


Yeah, their position is well E of the deep convection and the increasing vorticity (see map above). Wonder if the convection continues they will reanalyze this waves position??
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#558 Postby ozonepete » Sat Aug 13, 2011 11:11 pm

Blown Away wrote:
HURRICANELONNY wrote:TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N37W TO 10N36W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE LIES E OF AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EVIDENT IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WHILE THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY
INACTIVE AND HAS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION...MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS ENHANCED CONVECTION AND SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE WAVE IN A
FEW DAYS.
:roll:


Yeah, their position is well E of the deep convection and the increasing vorticity (see map above). Wonder if the convection continues they will reanalyze this waves position??


pretty likely. :wink:
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#559 Postby Adoquín » Sat Aug 13, 2011 11:25 pm

It does look a tad better convection wise and slower, SAL much lighter in front of her than before and she is moving west, sort of.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#560 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 13, 2011 11:30 pm

the key was 50W and its almost there so I would have expect it to fire off some convection. Now if it can mantain is a different story. It is entering a better environment and with an anticyclone over it already thats a huge plus....
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