ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#561 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 13, 2011 11:32 pm

Image

under jam as a TW....nothing special about this run.....but we have had the GFS miss development all season so take it with a grain of salt....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#562 Postby Adoquín » Sat Aug 13, 2011 11:40 pm

ROCK wrote:Image

under jam as a TW....nothing special about this run.....but we have had the GFS miss development all season so take it with a grain of salt....

agree, not impressed
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#563 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 13, 2011 11:44 pm

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

0z NOGAPS looks slightly more reasonable until it splits 93 into 2 different vorts..... :lol: ugh
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#564 Postby Adoquín » Sat Aug 13, 2011 11:47 pm

and a big anti cyclone that is..yes it looks like vorticity is well into the 40s,
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#565 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Sat Aug 13, 2011 11:52 pm

Convection has improved quite a bit, compared to earlier today which was practically nothing.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#566 Postby South Texas Storms » Sun Aug 14, 2011 12:17 am

This is reminding me a lot of when the GFS showed Don as a few sprinkled in the Caribbean a few weeks ago. It sure does seem like the models have been struggling so far this season with TC genesis.
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#567 Postby Rgv20 » Sun Aug 14, 2011 12:18 am

93L looking much better tonight as she is firing some much needed Tstorms. Not only that but the 850mb vorticity has increased significantly where 93L has its Thunder Storms.

Image

Image
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#568 Postby Sanibel » Sun Aug 14, 2011 12:19 am

I think 93L is sneaking back to life on us.
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#569 Postby BigB0882 » Sun Aug 14, 2011 12:36 am

I have a hard time trusting models that run when a wave is/was looking so pathetic. I think if this ever gets it's act together then the models might have something to latch onto and we can get a better idea of future generation and track.
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#570 Postby Adoquín » Sun Aug 14, 2011 1:01 am

and east of Barbados, not at 11.7N, if so would probably cross 60w north of there...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#571 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 14, 2011 1:04 am

EURO running

48hr....alittle something.... :D


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP048.gif
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#572 Postby South Texas Storms » Sun Aug 14, 2011 1:09 am

Dang ROCK, you sure have been staying up late for the Euro with this system. That must mean you smell some trouble (or in our case, very welcomed drought relief) for Texas from 93L. :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#573 Postby Nikki » Sun Aug 14, 2011 1:26 am

Does anyone know what the 00Z CMC showed?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#574 Postby South Texas Storms » Sun Aug 14, 2011 1:26 am

rnmm wrote:Does anyone know what the 00Z CMC showed?


I don't think it showed much tonight. I'm not 100% sure though.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#575 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 14, 2011 1:28 am

South Texas Storms wrote:Dang ROCK, you sure have been staying up late for the Euro with this system. That must mean you smell some trouble (or in our case, very welcomed drought relief) for Texas from 93L. :lol:



I have seen too many globals running a similar long range solution.....93L is passing 45W and entering a better environment, vort is increasing with convection. Our first few storms none of the globals latched on in the long range. Just being vigilant..... :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#576 Postby South Texas Storms » Sun Aug 14, 2011 1:32 am

ROCK wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:Dang ROCK, you sure have been staying up late for the Euro with this system. That must mean you smell some trouble (or in our case, very welcomed drought relief) for Texas from 93L. :lol:



I have seen too many globals running a similar long range solution.....93L is passing 45W and entering a better environment, vort is increasing with convection. Our first few storms none of the globals latched on in the long range. Just being vigilant..... :D



Oh I agree completely. This is reminding me a lot of Don a few weeks ago. I think it has a good chance of surprising a lot of people when all is said and done.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#577 Postby Nikki » Sun Aug 14, 2011 1:33 am

South Texas Storms wrote:
rnmm wrote:Does anyone know what the 00Z CMC showed?


I don't think it showed much tonight. I'm not 100% sure though.



Thank you!!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#578 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 14, 2011 1:34 am

South Texas Storms wrote:
ROCK wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:Dang ROCK, you sure have been staying up late for the Euro with this system. That must mean you smell some trouble (or in our case, very welcomed drought relief) for Texas from 93L. :lol:



I have seen too many globals running a similar long range solution.....93L is passing 45W and entering a better environment, vort is increasing with convection. Our first few storms none of the globals latched on in the long range. Just being vigilant..... :D



Oh I agree completely. This is reminding me a lot of Don a few weeks ago. I think it has a good chance of suprising a lot of people when all is said and done.


leaning that way....convection really firing in D-min. That is a good sign....some really cold tops....


EURO central carib at 120hr..looks better here than last night.....
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP120.gif
Last edited by ROCK on Sun Aug 14, 2011 1:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#579 Postby South Texas Storms » Sun Aug 14, 2011 1:38 am

Is Allen's site not updating the Euro right now for you Rock?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#580 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 14, 2011 1:43 am

rnmm wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:
rnmm wrote:Does anyone know what the 00Z CMC showed?


I don't think it showed much tonight. I'm not 100% sure though.



Thank you!!


yeah CMC didnt close it off....it did on the 12Z though.....
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