ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[ROCK]

Is Allen's site not updating the Euro right now for you Rock?

it is but updates in increments....almost done....

[ROCK]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP144.gif


getting going now....

[ROCK]

[ROCK]

192 hr

kills it around Belize

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP192.gif

[South Texas Storms]

192 hr

kills it around Belize

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP192.gif

Yep. You think that is a little too far south?

[ROCK]

192 hr

kills it around Belize

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP192.gif

Yep. You think that is a little too far south?

it all depends if it gets going or not.....look at it now...its getting going...

[ROCK]

really expanding now with cold tops in the middle of the night....and still sustaining.....waiting on new vort page to update....EURO was a non-event as it kept it weak....

also notice the outflow is improving over the deepest convection....fanning of the tops....anitcyclone aiding in that no doubt....


huge difference tonight....I feel some people will have a surprise when they wake up.....

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

[South Texas Storms]

Yeah the water vapor imagery shows this very well. It looks the best it has in a while right now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-wv.html

[ROCK]

:uarrow: Yeah the water vapor imagery shows this very well. It looks the best it has in a while right now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-wv.html

those are some cold tops bro....

[South Texas Storms]

:uarrow: Yeah the water vapor imagery shows this very well. It looks the best it has in a while right now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-wv.html

those are some cold tops bro....

Yep it looks very good right now imo. The key now will be if it can sustain its convection for several hours. If so then it could be on its way...

[RachelAnna]

for you NOGAPS huggers...not sure what it is doing on the 18Z.... but Florida is in the way...


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

yall need the rain more. it's yours

We need the rain but we don't need a hurricane! Any power outage with the 110 heat index will truly be deadly! We might get the rain we need, but a hurricane would blow away our dead grass with our power! I can't even imagine. While everyone locally has been saying some tropical moisture is what we need, and I agree, I can't imagine being without power for any period of time! I'll be keeping a close eye on this crossing my fingers that we get rain, if anything, but no power outages.

[TwisterFanatic]

COLD cloud tops going up as it approaches 50W? Coincidence?

[RL3AO]

Surprised they killed it off so quick

[Jagno]

I could only hope that it would die around Belize. This system has me a bit on edge for some reason. As mentioned above, lack of power would be a nightmare in this heat but a major cane would be far worse. Historically long range models often have a high error rate but this consistency in development and general direction is a bit worrisome. Hopefully it fizzles out, changes course and/or remains very weak.

[ozonepete]

Clearly becoming a player again. These early Cape Verde systems often dim out a few hundred miles west of Africa and then ramp up again as they change from back-building to forward-building thunderstorm complexes. This really is starting to look like it will develop now.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[South Texas Storms]

Clearly becoming a player again. These early Cape Verde systems often dim out a few hundred miles west of Africa and then ramp up again as they change from back-building to forward-building thunderstorm complexes. This really is starting to look like it will develop now.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yeah I agree. It is maintaining its convection very well so far tonight.

[South Texas Storms]

6z NAM starts to develop 93L in 84 hours at the end of its run just south of Puerto Rico.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[Blown Away]

Lol, 93L builds more convection than it's had in 36 hours and they deactivate it. Might get a mention at 8am again, but maybe they wait until 2pm to see persistent convection.

[Gustywind]

93L

[cycloneye]

They could have waited a few more hours before doing this.I suspect we will see it reactivated later today,of course pending if convection persists. They did the action a little after midnight EDT.

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