ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[N2FSU]

Convection is really firing this morning. Let's see if it persists.

[abajan]

Isn't the TWO taking kinda long? I wonder if they're trying to decide if to give a percentage on 93L.

[HURAKAN]

Isn't the TWO taking kinda long? I wonder if they're trying to decide if to give a percentage on 93L.

TWO has been out for over 20 minutes

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 141157
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N40W TO 9N42W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE LIES IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WHILE THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY INACTIVE
AND HAS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
ENHANCED CONVECTION AND SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE WAVE IN A FEW
DAYS.


$$
FORMOSA/WALLACE

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

We really need this to wrap up before the models will get a good hold of it. The more west repositioning may change the outcomes that we saw last night in the models, and no doubt a stronger vs weaker system will also adjust the paths more to the north.

[abajan]

Isn't the TWO taking kinda long? I wonder if they're trying to decide if to give a percentage on 93L.

TWO has been out for over 20 minutes

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Not at this link nor this one but thanks.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

6z NAM starts to develop 93L in 84 hours at the end of its run just south of Puerto Rico.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

That path would probably take it over Hispanola and tear it up. Maybe across Cuba as well, leaving nothing but a wave of moisture to head generally westward after traversing the islands. IF it could start to get its act back together, that could provide a nice pocket of moisture for our dry TX friends without a big storm to contend with. *wishful thinking

[alan1961]

SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE WAVE IN A FEW
DAYS..... Have we been hearing this for the last few
days since it left the cape verde islands?...dry air,
no LLC, no real convection and diminishing model support
IMO equates to problaby another strung out mess in the
eastern caribbean early next week...I want a storm to
track...please deliver 93L!

[jinftl]

No mention of this system (no color code) on the 8am TWO (the 'system' in this thread is the one to the right of the orange right parenthesis below, due east of barbados)

[tolakram]

Isn't the TWO taking kinda long? I wonder if they're trying to decide if to give a percentage on 93L.

TWO has been out for over 20 minutes

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Not at this link nor this one but thanks.

Might want to hit refresh (force a refresh) in your browser. I've noticed some of these pages cache oddly, as if they update the page but leave the timestamp on the page the same.

[KWT]

00z ECM is a very good solution providing it does stay weak till about 65-70W...if it looks like its going to develop a little earlier, then it'll be too far south with its solution...

[cycloneye]

Off Topic news:

For those who may not have seen the announcement at the top of forum,today at noon Eastern we're going to take the site down and switch-over to the new server. It should be off-line for 1-2 hours. We're excited to be moving to an upgraded hardware platform for the site as we move into the heart of the tropical season.There will be updates at the Storm2k Facebook page

[Gustywind]

Off Topic news:

For those who may not have seen the announcement at the top of forum,today at noon Eastern we're going to take the site down and switch-over to the new server. It should be off-line for 1-2 hours. We're excited to be moving to an upgraded hardware platform for the site as we move into the heart of the tropical season.There will be updates at the Storm2k Facebook page

[PauleinHouston]

Passing 50W.

Edit...how bizarre...browser didn't even show this thread...


By paulinhouston at 2011-08-14


By paulinhouston at 2011-08-14

[KWT]

Certainly an increase in convection, its still not showing any real signs of development IMO but I do think it'll get renoticed by the NHC soon enough if convection can hold.

[Gustywind]

I will be glad to have Aric's Dunn latest idea on this repoping trend since the morning... Aric where are you?

[BigA]

For what it is worth shear maps show basically no shear near or in front of it.

[KWT]

Well it does seem like conditions are a little better right now, I expect a plusing type situation from 93L over the next few days with a chance of development in the C/W Caribbean.

[FireRat]

How about dry air?

that's been the big issue so far this season.

[Kory]

How about dry air?

that's been the big issue so far this season.

It does have some dry air as it approaches the Leeward Islands, but the shear was another big factor, and it looks almost non existant.