Season Cancel!

[Migle]

I'm in the quality or quantity camp though. I guess the best way to describe this season would be frustrating. Arlene, Bret, Cindy... Were all okay. But then what we've been put through with the ups and downs of Don, Emily, Franklin... ugh. However; this is what I expect from June, July, and early August. Remember TD #5 last year? People we're saying they thought it could get it Hurricane strength. Same thing with Don this year. Sometimes we set our expectations to high with how the conditions are out in there in July.

Just sit back and wait about a week or two. The conditions seem to change out there in the blink of an eye.

[jinftl]

Mother N calls the shots...and sometimes she holds back, sometimes she lets all heck break loose. I would rather a season of 20 non-billion dollar storms than a crippling storm event that destroys lives and livelihood and sets someone's local economy deeper into despair.

I think folks are pulling the plug on this season way way way too soon....how many seasons have had 7 named storms at all by August 14??? Few...so in reality conditions may be more favorable for development so far b/c normally by mid-August we would have 2 or 3 named storms.

The focus may be on why we have had 7 TS so far and no hurricanes, but the real question may be why are so many systems developing this early in the season when we are not even near the peak of the season???

NHC Climatology from 1966-2010 shows the average date of the 1st hurricane has been August 13. So we are a few days behind with that. Why is it that the average date has been August 13...what has made conditions average out to be unfavorable for a hurricane to form in June, July, and almost the first half of August for the average season???

Is this season such an anomaly without a hurricane yet....and I say yet...folks, that will change. When it does, I hope the same folks who are unimpressed, bored, skeptical, etc of the 2011 season potential don't find themselves staring down the barrel of a gun. At least if you do, please take the threat seriously and don't assume we will see 17-20 tropical storms and 0 hurricanes this year.

If you think it has been a hot summer in places like Houston or New Orleans, try living without power and air conditioning for a few weeks if you get that, 'fingers crossed', tropical system (not too strong of course) to bring some rain. That is not the kind of drought relief and heat relief you really want or need.

I'm in the quality or quantity camp though. I guess the best way to describe this season would be frustrating. Arlene, Bret, Cindy... Were all okay. But then what we've been put through with the ups and downs of Don, Emily, Franklin... ugh. However; this is what I expect from June, July, and early August. Remember TD #5 last year? People we're saying they thought it could get it Hurricane strength. Same thing with Don this year. Sometimes we set our expectations to high with how the conditions are out in there in July.

Just sit back and wait about a week or two. The conditions seem to change out there in the blink of an eye.

[Migle]

Mother N calls the shots...and sometimes she holds back, sometimes she lets all heck break loose. I would rather a season of 20 non-billion dollar storms than a crippling storm event that destroys lives and livelihood and sets someone's local economy deeper into despair.

Likewise... I didn't mean for that to come off like I want 12 Category 5 US landfalling Hurricanes. I was more so referring to people that said "Look at how good this year has been! We're so far ahead of average and we're about to catch up with 05." That doesn't really mean much if they're all 2 day storms that are 50 MPH.

[Ntxw]

I hear 04 and 05 thrown out way too much. Our standards are set too high...those are exceptional once in a lifetime seasons (yes even though by chance they were back to back) so people get disappointed when it doesn't live up to that.

I don't know if this is related but I did some research in the PDO for the winter months and ran into some fun stuff for tropical season sorta. 04-05 were during a warm period as well as the big storms in the early 90s and late 90s. Cold PDO seems to not favor vast amounts of big hurricanes (there are exceptions). Just something I've noticed but not deeply looked into. July's PDO was extremely low (cold) at -1.86 and my guess is that August will be much the same if not colder...maybe that can explain some of the weak nature of the storms.

[Scorpion]

What on earth is going on?? It's really irritating me, I just don't understand how we can have such a weak season so far considering the circumstances. I know this is just frustration though, there absolutely has to be a burst of majors coming soon. It's just the waiting game

[ConvergenceZone]

What on earth is going on?? It's really irritating me, I just don't understand how we can have such a weak season so far considering the circumstances. I know this is just frustration though, there absolutely has to be a burst of majors coming soon. It's just the waiting game

Yea, most of the models seems to be turning away from development anytime soon... This doesn't suppose to happen. Starting in Mid August is when the lid suppose to blow off, but aside from a couple of depressions/storms, we've yet to see that happen.

[Ptarmigan]

Mother N calls the shots...and sometimes she holds back, sometimes she lets all heck break loose. I would rather a season of 20 non-billion dollar storms than a crippling storm event that destroys lives and livelihood and sets someone's local economy deeper into despair.

I think folks are pulling the plug on this season way way way too soon....how many seasons have had 7 named storms at all by August 14??? Few...so in reality conditions may be more favorable for development so far b/c normally by mid-August we would have 2 or 3 named storms.

The focus may be on why we have had 7 TS so far and no hurricanes, but the real question may be why are so many systems developing this early in the season when we are not even near the peak of the season???

NHC Climatology from 1966-2010 shows the average date of the 1st hurricane has been August 13. So we are a few days behind with that. Why is it that the average date has been August 13...what has made conditions average out to be unfavorable for a hurricane to form in June, July, and almost the first half of August for the average season???

Is this season such an anomaly without a hurricane yet....and I say yet...folks, that will change. When it does, I hope the same folks who are unimpressed, bored, skeptical, etc of the 2011 season potential don't find themselves staring down the barrel of a gun. At least if you do, please take the threat seriously and don't assume we will see 17-20 tropical storms and 0 hurricanes this year.

If you think it has been a hot summer in places like Houston or New Orleans, try living without power and air conditioning for a few weeks if you get that, 'fingers crossed', tropical system (not too strong of course) to bring some rain. That is not the kind of drought relief and heat relief you really want or need.

Nature does whatever it wants. It doesn't care what any of those computer model says or climatology. If I am correct, sometimes seasons can start late and end up being active like 1969, 1998, and 2004. I never write anything off until it ends and it does end. Until than, I am not letting my guards down. I know Nature will thrown a bunch of curve balls.

I hear 04 and 05 thrown out way too much. Our standards are set too high...those are exceptional once in a lifetime seasons (yes even though by chance they were back to back) so people get disappointed when it doesn't live up to that.

I don't know if this is related but I did some research in the PDO for the winter months and ran into some fun stuff for tropical season sorta. 04-05 were during a warm period as well as the big storms in the early 90s and late 90s. Cold PDO seems to not favor vast amounts of big hurricanes (there are exceptions). Just something I've noticed but not deeply looked into. July's PDO was extremely low (cold) at -1.86 and my guess is that August will be much the same if not colder...maybe that can explain some of the weak nature of the storms.

2004 and 2005 seasons are outliers. Interesting you mention PDO. I found August to October PDO being negatively correlated with Atlantic hurricane season. It is even stronger with hurricanes and major hurricanes. The cooler the PDO, more active Atlantic season is.

[lonelymike]

Patience, grasshoppers..Patience

[WeatherEmperor]

It seems like we go through this exercise ever year...

For those of you that are sarcastic, fine it is a good joke. Those that are serious about this hurricane season being a letdown (or whatever it's being called) need to calm down and wait. I am not going to compare this year to last year but on this day last year, August 14th 2010, we only had 3 named storms. From Aug 21st to Oct 29th, the Atlantic spit out 16 more named storms.So far this year, we have already had 7 named storms. Again, I am not comparing this year to last year but the point I make is that eventually the Atlantic will explode. Heck, even 1998 didn't get going until Aug 19th/20th when Bonnie formed and the rest is history.

From a pure activity standpoint, 2010 delivered and proved that once the lid comes off the activity will explode. From a US hurricane landfall standpoint, 2010 did not deliver. No hurricanes made landfall except for a couple of.

We have seen this before so why are some surprised with whats going on right now?

[MGC]

I can't remember a season when the first 6 systems all stayed at TS intensity and there is a good chance Gert will remain a TS also. I would be shocked if no hurricanes form this season....give mother nature time. I'd love to see a couple of Cat-5 form and stay at sea....MGC

[ConvergenceZone]

I can't remember a season when the first 6 systems all stayed at TS intensity and there is a good chance Gert will remain a TS also. I would be shocked if no hurricanes form this season....give mother nature time. I'd love to see a couple of Cat-5 form and stay at sea....MGC

Hehe, yea, I was thinking the same thing when I was at breakfast this morning. I can't remember the last time all 6 storms to start the season stayed at tropical storm strength....Heck, who knows, we may end up with another 10 to 15 storms, but it's also possible that they might only make it to tropical storm strength as well. Perhaps the coditions might be that we get quite a few named storms, but that the conditions won't allow further development from a TS. We never know in this crazy world of the tropics.

[pricetag56]

why are people upset there are no hurricanes. seriously there havent been any cuz conditions arent favorable enough. when the moster storms start forming and haulin ass to ur neighborhood u wont be too excited then. be careful wat u ask for. i dont mean to sound like a douche but i think some people are being naive and ignorant

[ConvergenceZone]

why are people upset there are no hurricanes. seriously there havent been any cuz conditions arent favorable enough. when the moster storms start forming and haulin ass to ur neighborhood u wont be too excited then. be careful wat u ask for. i dont mean to sound like a douche but i think some people are being naive and ignorant

I think it was just a discussion stemming from that fact that here hasn't been a major hurricane to hit the US for several years now. I am curious though if something has changed in the tropics that has caused that.

[pricetag56]

why are people upset there are no hurricanes. seriously there havent been any cuz conditions arent favorable enough. when the moster storms start forming and haulin ass to ur neighborhood u wont be too excited then. be careful wat u ask for. i dont mean to sound like a douche but i think some people are being naive and ignorant

I think it was just a discussion stemming from that fact that here hasn't been a major hurricane to hit the US for several years now. I am curious though if something has changed in the tropics that has caused that.

i dont think nothin has changed its just been by chance and timing. 2008 waz a bad year for the us ike waz like a major 06 waz an el nino as well as 09. 07 and 2010 were la nina which dont favor us landfalls cuz of the patterns. so lets jus see how this year plays out. this years setup is simiar to 2008 remember.

[HurricaneWarning92]

why are people upset there are no hurricanes. seriously there havent been any cuz conditions arent favorable enough. when the moster storms start forming and haulin ass to ur neighborhood u wont be too excited then. be careful wat u ask for. i dont mean to sound like a douche but i think some people are being naive and ignorant

I think it was just a discussion stemming from that fact that here hasn't been a major hurricane to hit the US for several years now. I am curious though if something has changed in the tropics that has caused that.

i dont think nothin has changed its just been by chance and timing. 2008 waz a bad year for the us ike waz like a major 06 waz an el nino as well as 09. 07 and 2010 were la nina which dont favor us landfalls cuz of the patterns. so lets jus see how this year plays out. this years setup is simiar to 2008 remember.

Pricetag56, i think some of these people that are upset that there are no hurricanes are the ones that love the thrill of it when one approaches them, as long as they are prepared. Its like tornado chasers... They love the "thrill" of it and mother nature. Some people actually chase hurricanes as well. It just depends on each person. Take another example... People that play with snakes or swim with sharks. They do it because they love it. You cant tell them they are wrong or ignorants because to them, it isnt wrong. Its what they like. Now if they werent prepared and they go do that, then that would show some ignorance but if they are prepared for it, i believe there is nothing wrong with it.

[lonelymike]

1000 days since last hurricane to hit US
Well u can debate if IKE was a major or not.
2000 since last major.

[South Texas Storms]

1000 days since last hurricane to hit US
Well u can debate if IKE was a major or not.
2000 since last major.

What about Katrina?

[ConvergenceZone]

Pricetag56, i think some of these people that are upset that there are no hurricanes are the ones that love the thrill of it when one approaches them, as long as they are prepared. Its like tornado chasers... They love the "thrill" of it and mother nature. Some people actually chase hurricanes as well. It just depends on each person. Take another example... People that play with snakes or swim with sharks. They do it because they love it. You cant tell them they are wrong or ignorants because to them, it isnt wrong. Its what they like. Now if they werent prepared and they go do that, then that would show some ignorance but if they are prepared for it, i believe there is nothing wrong with it.

You make a good point. I always tell people who get bent out of shape about our love for hurricanes is to watch the movie "Twister", and then maybe they WILL understand. ... Or maybe they will never get it..... "Twister" is very realistic regarding the rush, the level of excitement of mother nature. It's the same for hurricanes, and it keeps us coming back to this board year after year....

[KWT]

Yea, most of the models seems to be turning away from development anytime soon... This doesn't suppose to happen. Starting in Mid August is when the lid suppose to blow off, but aside from a couple of depressions/storms, we've yet to see that happen.

Well really you could argue we are still active right now, we've just had 2NS in the space of about 3-4 days, thats pretty rapid ratwe of development...quality has been low with nearly all these storms but we are on *7* storms, we've had more storms then a fair amount of El nino seasons in the past!

There is something up with thisn season thats for sure and conditions are only marginal further south in the MDR for development, further north it seems much more condusive...classic El nino type pattern.

Somewhat odd year, but who knows Gert may become a hurricane anyway yet!

[beoumont]

Ah, just like football, you can't accurately judge the coming season by what happens in the pre-season games. As Mark Suddeth noted weeks ago, Aug. 20th is really the start of many, if not most. true hurricane seasons.

Anyone who uses 2004-2005 as a frame of reference, is using two extremely anomalous years to base expectations upon. Once in a lifetime; maybe twice.