Heads Up Ticka & VBHoutex

[KatDaddy]

Joe B is hyping up a tropical storm or hurricane threat between Corpus Christi and New Orleans this upcoming Labor Day weekend

This post is from over at GoPbi

Shh..Don't tell wrk99... by DESTRUCTION5

Before dealing with the threat to the East Coast next week, as I expect the next trough to dive into the Mississippi Valley next week, then lift out and after the 10th we go back to a September version of the post August trough pattern, the first threat for a landfalling tropical storm or hurricane is the area from Corpus to New Orleans early next week. I think the Eurga is in one of its score coup mode as it seeks to drive the other models into the wasteland of being obsolete compared to it.

It makes sense as to what it's saying as it has western Gulf development and here is why: The westward movement of waves is slowing to next to nothing from the Gulf to the Pacific. If one looks at Ignacio, its wave took forever to move off the coast and then develop. The former td 9 is near 90 west drifting west, the wave behind it has split in 2 and is near 80 west and its heat will pile in Friday over the south-central Gulf. In the meantime, the large blow up of thunderstorms over Panama this morning shows where the true large scale mid-level heat source is. The overall pattern is such where this is not heading west, but northwest the next several days. This is because, the upper ridge over the Caribbean and southwest Atlantic has been weakened enough by the waves coming through, so the stream flow is deep southeast not east here. So that source comes northwest. It is not so much that clouds do, as they are a product of convergence in the low levels and the aforementioned mid level disturbance, but the heat it represents does. In the meantime, in response the the developing plains trough, a large outflow ridge develops over the central gulf the next 5 days. By sunday the front is deep into Texas and that means the usual south to southeast flow that ruins western gulf convergence is gone and by Monday is replaced by northerly surface winds . All roads lead to Rome, right? Well, barring a move by the system quickly west into Mexico Sunday night and Monday, all roads here, at least the sign, point to weekend development over the western Gulf. In addition, the development pulse in now heading into the Atlantic basin.

My big fear here is the tropics worldwide are too darn quiet and we may see a 3 storm burst in the Atlantic that is starting to ramp up right now. African, behind the system that looks to be near or at tropical storm intensity southwest of the Cape Verdes, is shutting down. The strong negative NAO implies that the place for maximum ridging aloft is the western and central Atlantic and into the Gulf. The Gulf system will be a complex development, if it does develop, and certainly is not something that unless one is truly snooping around, one can see easily as the only model that sees it is the European. But all the players are there. The other two developments are much more straight forward and are eastern North America threats.

Back to an email-inspired comment to once again drive home my point about speaking for oneself. I think the system southwest of the Cape Verdes is a tropical storm. It has good banding and a CDO and may be beyond a minimal one like it looked to be to ME yesterday. Miami did not think any such thing, and even this morning they are just saying it may become a depression later today, and was asked why they didn't agree with me. My answer is I can only speak for myself, not someone I don't work with. So again, just like I don't need people from other places making blanket statements about what is and isnt possible based on their knowledge, I wont make blanket statements as to what they are thinking. Only my thinking, ok. It looks like a tropical storm to me.

My thinking is Labor Day morning this is near 20 north and 60 west as a hurricane and is a late-week threat to the Eastern Seaboard. However, in front of it, the system now at 20 north and 42 west has a chance to do some dirty work as it moves west-northwest. The error on modelling all along has been too far north with systems but this seems like it is going to get to near 25 and 55 and then go on a long ride west. It has an upper low that has pulled from northeast to northwest of it and is leading it with ventilation. So Labor Day morning I think we have a tropical storm southwest of Bermuda and that is the first threat next week to the East Coast.

I think both systems will get to at least 70 west before they have a chance to recurve.

Yep, I know what I am saying, that by Labor Day morning we have three storms. The pattern I envision is one home brewed development in the western Gulf and the other two Atlantic systems simply coming west under a ridge that is locked out near 70 west till the early part of next week. In fact, the UKMET next Monday night has it east-west from the Carolinas to the central Atlantic.

Again, the surface map fits the pattern. Think big picture. What happens when pressures build in one place and old air is in one place. There should be compensating warmth in another. The silence of the tropics is deafening. Either a big burst is coming in the atlantic or this will be one of the weirdest years every WORLDWIDE as we cannot justify the ocean profiles and the heat buildup without some kind of transfer from the tropics to the temperate regions. The most efficient place to get rid of heat is near troughs and when they are back over central North America in the means, look out. It seems like the two systems in the Atlantic will be within striking distance around the time of maximum amplitude so the Eastern Seaboard and southeastern Canada has to sit up and take notice. And the complex development scheme for the gulf has already been part of pattern that has produced three land-falling storms west of 90.

Yep, the computer went down at NCEP and though there may be great wailing and gnashing of teeth in the world of model worship, one can't help but notice that the day the models was down, is the basically the day I have been most strong on what I think is about to occur. Only one thing left now, and that is to see if any of it happens.

Ciao for now.

********

[Rainband]

JB..that says it all. I wouldn't go boarding up windows anytime soon :o

[KatDaddy]

I just do not see any GOM development any time soon especially becoming a threat to TX and LA over the Labor Day weekend. Joe B. is really stretching this time.........trying desperately to pull a purple
three-eared rabbit out of a hat.

[bfez1]

Hmm, New Orleans, that's me. Interesting!!!

[Portastorm]

This is from the Austin/San Antonio NWS mid-morning forecast discussion:

CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES ANTICIPATED.

OF PARTICULAR INTEREST ARE THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. PREVIOUS CYCLES OF THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE SHOWN A COLD FRONT GETTING CLOSE TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF...WITH A STEERING FLOW THAT WOULD PULL IT NORTH TOWARD THE TX/LA COASTS.

[Johnny]

The local mets have been mentioning this in there forecasts (Frank Billingsley & Neil Frank) down here in Houston. Just gonna have to wait and see. I definately wouldn't lose any sleep over it.

[Rainband]

This is from the Austin/San Antonio NWS mid-morning forecast discussion:

CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES ANTICIPATED.

OF PARTICULAR INTEREST ARE THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. PREVIOUS CYCLES OF THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE SHOWN A COLD FRONT GETTING CLOSE TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF...WITH A STEERING FLOW THAT WOULD PULL IT NORTH TOWARD THE TX/LA COASTS.

Key words..MODEL SOLUTIONS..the models haven't done too well thus far..but anything is possible

[Portastorm]

Granted, although the Euro seems to be ahead of the GFS this tropical season in terms of performance.

[Steve H.]

The 12Z ETA has a developing low in the western GOM now.

[Portastorm]

thanks for the 'heads up', Steve!

Yeah, the 12z ETA run looks a lot like yesterday's ECMWF in terms of the location of the Western GOM low.

[southerngale]

Granted, although the Euro seems to be ahead of the GFS this tropical season in terms of performance.

That's true....I think they've been pretty good actually. While I won't be boarding up any windows ( Rainband ), I'll definitely keep an eye out for something to develop.

I enjoy reading what JB has to say.....thanks KatDaddy.

[Johnny]

Here's the 12z ETA animation run.........



http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/gyx/eta_12z_h500.html



http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/gyx/eta_12z_pcp.html

[Guest]

I also enjoy reading what JB says - like I like reading everyone elses posts. Doesn't mean that I believe or trust his forcast - just another perspective to view.

As for this event - yes the local guys here are saying something this A.M. who knows what mother nature is going to bring - its that time of the year and with the warm gulf waters - being complancent and nonchalant is only asking for trouble. For me - I'll stayed tuned and as always prepared.

Patricia

[Rainband]

I just don't buy into long term forecasts!! I think the weather is way too unpredictable to go by a forecast days out!! As for the models..they have done pretty good with already formed systems. Their prediction of systems yet to develop is far from accurate..so far IMHO..remember the gfs..last week

[Steve]

He really hyped it on the Tropical Update and Point/Counterpoint. The TS Bill factor will be in play. You have (at least) 2 low level heat sources - remnants of TD #9, split from the EC wave along with low pressure propogating NW out of the WC, a front off the TX Coast and higher pressures inland behind the front. This is about the 4th time this year we've had a similar setup. Joe B's actually been talking about this from the TD 9 MLC days from late last week. The ECMWF/ETA alliance brought us Bill and may again be the correct models in dealing with this situation.

Rainband,

While Joe B does tend to hype all possibilities, he's usually better than anyone (or any model) at sniffing out pattern recognition stuff.

Steve

[Rainband]

Rainband,

While Joe B does tend to hype all possibilities, he's usually better than anyone (or any model) at sniffing out pattern recognition stuff.

Steve

Not better than my locals..they have never told us a system was gonna effect us unless it did. In all honesty..while I respect all OCMs and board mets..I take all this with a grain of salt. I start to be concerned when the Tampa-bay NWS and The NHC is concerened..and not a day before!!!

[southerngale]

I just don't buy into long term forecasts!! I think the weather is way too unpredictable to go by a forecast days out!! As for the models..they have done pretty good with already formed systems. Their prediction of systems yet to develop is far from accurate..so far IMHO..remember the gfs..last week

Here's a post by Stormsfury last night in the EURO getting on the tropical bandwagon and LOOK OUT TX!!....just something to think about.

Ticka, the EURO is by far the best medium range model and when it locks onto a scenario and doesn't stray from it for days on out, you can generally take it to the bank ... this is the first time, I've seen the TC off of the TX coast on this new run ...

... So watch a few things ....

1) Consistency with future model runs
2) Other model support (other models coming together on a solution)
3) The CV wave already has tremendous model support except from the UKMET (which is out to lunch, IMO)

... I'm not saying that this will happen, but remember Tropical Storm Bill? ... the EURO Day 5 had the general idea of a TC landfalling in Louisiana while other models took it into Florida ... the EURO never strayed, and the ETA was very close with the EURO ... within the 84 hour range (which became the winning hand)... in the next runs, the other models swung around to the EURO/ETA solution and the consensus was born ...

Stay tuned ... The EURO does not honk very often and doesn't predict phantom tropical cyclones ... in fact, it generally misses a few, and the ones it picks up on, develop more than not (not like the GFS... )

SF

[Rainband]

I just don't buy into long term forecasts!! I think the weather is way too unpredictable to go by a forecast days out!! As for the models..they have done pretty good with already formed systems. Their prediction of systems yet to develop is far from accurate..so far IMHO..remember the gfs..last week

Here's a post by Stormsfury last night in the EURO getting on the tropical bandwagon and LOOK OUT TX!!....just something to think about.

Ticka, the EURO is by far the best medium range model and when it locks onto a scenario and doesn't stray from it for days on out, you can generally take it to the bank ... this is the first time, I've seen the TC off of the TX coast on this new run ...

... So watch a few things ....

1) Consistency with future model runs
2) Other model support (other models coming together on a solution)
3) The CV wave already has tremendous model support except from the UKMET (which is out to lunch, IMO)

... I'm not saying that this will happen, but remember Tropical Storm Bill? ... the EURO Day 5 had the general idea of a TC landfalling in Louisiana while other models took it into Florida ... the EURO never strayed, and the ETA was very close with the EURO ... within the 84 hour range (which became the winning hand)... in the next runs, the other models swung around to the EURO/ETA solution and the consensus was born ...

Stay tuned ... The EURO does not honk very often and doesn't predict phantom tropical cyclones ... in fact, it generally misses a few, and the ones it picks up on, develop more than not (not like the GFS... )

SF

Iread that last night..thanks kelly

[Steve]

I understand. But clearly the TB, FL local weather guys won't likely key in on a E TX, SW LA threat.

Steve

[Rainband]

I understand. But clearly the TB, FL local weather guys won't likely key in on a E TX, SW LA threat.

Steve

Thats just it..they cover all the tropics and do it darn well Thats my point..I just heard them talking about potential in the GOM.. :o They never try to hype things..thats why I love our locals!! They keep us informed about any threat..wether it be local or not