ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

I am going to have to disagree. I think it will be a TD in the next 24 or 36 hours or even less. And I still beleave that it will make a run for the GOM not CA. But this is just my thoughts please look to the NHC for more info.

Well whilst its not impossible for this to pick up more latitude then expected, thqat upper high that is over Texas is pretty potent and I see no real way it can get into the Gulf.

Could easily pick up latitude if it were to develop and deepen before about 70 west. the weakness from the digging trough over the SE should persist for the next couple days. so if it were to develop it would likely feel that and bend more WNW. it would not likely move north but getting into the central gulf on a WNW track is not out the question. this is all hypothetical since its not likely to develop before 70w

[northjaxpro]

I am going to have to disagree. I think it will be a TD in the next 24 or 36 hours or even less. And I still beleave that it will make a run for the GOM not CA. But this is just my thoughts please look to the NHC for more info.

Well whilst its not impossible for this to pick up more latitude then expected, thqat upper high that is over Texas is pretty potent and I see no real way it can get into the Gulf.

Yes KWT I agree with you. 93L with the best probabilities will be a Caribbean rider. The death ridge is not budging and I can't see this gaining a lot of latitude down the road.

[floridasun78]

this first models runs for invest 93l

[wxman57]

My track is actually quite close to the extrapolated track into Belize, as I don't have it developing into a TS or hurricane like the BAMs.

[Blown Away]

My track is actually quite close to the extrapolated track into Belize, as I don't have it developing into a TS or hurricane like the BAMs.

Is there anything unique going on in the upper levels that is keeping these systems (7 TS's) from becoming stronger systems?

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

My track is actually quite close to the extrapolated track into Belize, as I don't have it developing into a TS or hurricane like the BAMs.

Is there anything unique going on in the upper levels that is keeping these systems (7 TS's) from becoming stronger systems?

Stability in the air across multiple heights has not allowed for big storm buildups. Also, there has been pretty consistent shear for any storms that have tried to develop. Dry air has also been prevalent, which is to be expected in early season. However, things are about to get better with the approach of the MJO.

[SouthDadeFish]

850mb vorticity has really increased over the last 3 hours. Let's see if this trend continues.



700 mb vorticity isn't that bad either.

[GCANE]

I think it will continue doing the intensity oscillation thing.

It'll strengthen for about 12 hrs, then weaken some over about 12 hrs, then strengthen again, etc.

IMHO, the strengthening part will be enough for this to start to gain some small amount of latitude, over the course of the next few days; perhaps a bit more that what the BAMs currently show.

[Aric Dunn]

Floater is back up

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html

[wxman57]

I plotted the GFS/Euro/Canadian 500mb forecast for 00Z Friday (7pm CDT Thursday). Note the strong high over Texas and north and northeasterly flow across the Gulf. These 3 models say no threat to NE Mexico to Louisiana, that's for sure, and likely not for the central or NW Gulf.

Also note the due west flow into southern Mexico/Central America on Thu-Fri. That's supportive of a continued westerly track through the next 5-7 days. I think the BAMs are too far north.

[GCANE]

850mb-vorticity and anti-cyclone are nearly stacked.

Strongest convection to the NW.

[GCANE]

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT MON 15 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-076

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 16/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 16/1700Z
D. 15.0N 65.0W
E. 16/1730Z TO 16/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES
AT 17/1200Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARK: TASKING FOR SUSPECT AREA SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA FOR 15/1800Z AND 16/0600Z CANCELED BY
NHC AT 15/1100Z.

[Sanibel]

That finally looks like a developer and it's in motion unlike Emily.

[ndale]

Wxman57, you mentioned the high over Texas, do we have any idea when this ridge will weaken enough or move far enough away to ever allow us any good chances for rain.

[SouthFLTropics]

I must say for this not to have a lot of model support it is looking pretty good right now...Looks like it is trying to wrap up on the Atlantic wide view visible.

SFT

[Blown Away]

IMO, if 93L can deepen into a TS before 70W it will find that weakness over Florida and take a Emily type track, if not it's due west into CA which is more likely IMO.

[Gustywind]

Numerous lightnings and strong showers since 10 minutes. Weather is grey and sad.

[Gustywind]

Thunder is boombing nicely now no poweroutages for the moment but if this trends continues i should have shut down my computer. Hope that everyone in the others islands are safe and dry.

[bigdan35]

Nogaps 12z looks Texas bound

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Tireman4]

Nogaps 12z looks Texas bound

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

But how with that ridge....


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