ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[GCANE]

IMHO, the beta effect will have a large influence on this track; and throw in a couple wobbles here and there.

[petit_bois]

we all need to keep in mind that a ridge forcast over 5 days out is very very iffy at best.

[Dean4Storms]

Nothing written in stone here, a must watch.

[petit_bois]

I've very fearfull of mid August - early September here in the NGOM.
This looks fishy to me... like scary fishy

And yeah gusty... we had thunderstorm here too yesterday... and everyday the last 2 weeks.

[HurricaneWarning92]

This is entering the Caribbean. How is this fishy?

[petit_bois]

:uarrow: This is entering the Caribbean. How is this fishy?

Fishy as in... it doesn't smell good... not fish - it will recurve...

[HurricaneWarning92]

Well, if there is a ridge there, it cant magically disappear... It could shift a bit and may influence the track of the storm a tad, but not dramatically.

[Gustywind]

Hopefully things have calm down here. Rain has stopped as the tstorms.

[Hurricaneman]

:uarrow: This is entering the Caribbean. How is this fishy?

I think he meant fishy as in could be dangerous, not as in go fishing away from land

[Portastorm]

we all need to keep in mind that a ridge forcast over 5 days out is very very iffy at best.

With all due respect, you don't know our Death Ridge then. While it has nudged a little east and a little west here and there during the summer, it essentially has not budged. This ridge is far from "iffy."

[ROCK]

I see 93L came back to life....for now...who needs model support anyway...

[HurricaneWarning92]

:uarrow: This is entering the Caribbean. How is this fishy?

Fishy as in... it doesn't smell good... not fish - it will recurve...

lol ah i get it. But what if someone thinks fish smell good? would that mean itd be good news that it goes there? hehe

[petit_bois]

:uarrow: This is entering the Caribbean. How is this fishy?

Fishy as in... it doesn't smell good... not fish - it will recurve...

lol ah i get it. But what if someone thinks fish smell good? would that mean itd be good news that it goes there? hehe

if "if" were a "skiff"... we'd all go fishing.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GERT...LOCATED ABOUT 95 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ADJACENT WATERS OF
THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE
CIRCULATION AND PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[petit_bois]

we all need to keep in mind that a ridge forcast over 5 days out is very very iffy at best.

With all due respect, you don't know our Death Ridge then. While it has nudged a little east and a little west here and there during the summer, it essentially has not budged. This ridge is far from "iffy."

Time will tell

[Brent]

That's a big change in wording from 8am...

[wxman57]

Wxman57, you mentioned the high over Texas, do we have any idea when this ridge will weaken enough or move far enough away to ever allow us any good chances for rain.

GFS and Euro are saying in 8-10 days - next week (Wed-Thu).

[painkillerr]

2:00PM TWO

A Vigorous Tropical Wave Is Producing A Large Area Of Cloudiness
And Thunderstorms Over The Lesser Antilles And Adjacent Waters Of
The Atlantic And Caribbean Sea. There Are No Signs Of A Surface
Circulation And Pressures Are Not Falling Significantly With This
Disturbance. However...environmental Conditions Are Expected To Be
Marginally Favorable For Some Development Of This System During The
Next Few Days. This Large Disturbance Will Bring Brief Periods Of
Locally Heavy Rainfall And Gusty Winds To Portions Of The Lesser
Antilles Today Through Tuesday Morning. This System Has A Low
Chance...20 Percent...of Becoming A Tropical Cyclone During The
Next 48 Hours As It Moves Westward At 15 To 20 Mph.

[ROCK]

we all need to keep in mind that a ridge forcast over 5 days out is very very iffy at best.

With all due respect, you don't know our Death Ridge then. While it has nudged a little east and a little west here and there during the summer, it essentially has not budged. This ridge is far from "iffy."

for a ridge to hold in late August for over 5 days without movement or weakening? Hmmm...not sure....lets not forget I have been on 93L since this was a little cloud in Africa. Essentially I have been the night crew here. NONE of the models lately show this even developing....if it does then all bets are off IMO...

let's not forget that the 12Z GFS 2 days ago had this a major cane into TX...what ridge?

[ROCK]

up to 20%....if it pops a LLC then its over some of the hottest waters in the basin with little shear with an anticyclone over it...