ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

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northtxboy
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#781 Postby northtxboy » Mon Aug 15, 2011 1:06 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I beleave the texas ridge will shift to the west over the rockies in the next 5 days. Models might not show it yet but everything is comming together to move it off to the west. This is a post I made yesterday.
@ Lonelymike,,
As 93L moves off to the west it will get into the big area of 29+c water west of 50w. MJO starts to come back which favors upward developement in the Atlantic all at the same time 93L moves into ther Caribbean. The future track of this is still up in the air but there are some key features showing up in the models and they seem to be in general agreemnet on a very strong trough over the gulf of alaska in the next 5-7 days which I beleave would cause ridging over western Canada. This I beleave would cause the Texas ridge to move west over the Colorado area. In turn the weakness off thre east coast between this ridge and the Atlantic ridge would move farther to the west over the east gulf coast. I think this would leave an area for this storm to move into the gulf of mexico as it feels the weakness. I dont know what it will be,TD,TS,Hurricane, or just a open wave but I do beleave that there is a good chance of whatever it is to make landfall in a gulf state. Just something we need to keep an eye on. But please this is not a offical forecast and 99.9% of the time I have no idea what I am talking about. This is based on my own thought and you should look to the NHC for real info.

Last edited by northtxboy on Sun Aug 14, 2011 6:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Now I may be missing something but I beleave that the ridge will move to the west causing a weakness in the gulf. The models dont show it moving and I dont know why but the set up calls for a shift. This is based on my own thoughts and you should look to the NHC for real info
Last edited by Portastorm on Mon Aug 15, 2011 1:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Add forecast disclaimer
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#782 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 15, 2011 1:07 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#783 Postby Portastorm » Mon Aug 15, 2011 1:08 pm

I didn't say the ridge wouldn't move, ROCK. I just don't think it's going to move very much between now and the weekend.

You model hugger you! :lol:

Hey, did you see today's 12z GFS? Has a major cane ripping into NOLA.
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Re: Re:

#784 Postby northtxboy » Mon Aug 15, 2011 1:08 pm

ROCK wrote:
Portastorm wrote:
petit_bois wrote:we all need to keep in mind that a ridge forcast over 5 days out is very very iffy at best.


With all due respect, you don't know our Death Ridge then. While it has nudged a little east and a little west here and there during the summer, it essentially has not budged. This ridge is far from "iffy."


for a ridge to hold in late August for over 5 days without movement or weakening? Hmmm...not sure....lets not forget I have been on 93L since this was a little cloud in Africa. Essentially I have been the night crew here. NONE of the models lately show this even developing....if it does then all bets are off IMO...

let's not forget that the 12Z GFS 2 days ago had this a major cane into TX...what ridge? :lol:


I agree with you 100%. I to have followed 93L since it came off the coast. We may be in for a surprise :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#785 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 15, 2011 1:09 pm

Portastorm wrote:I didn't say the ridge wouldn't move, ROCK. I just don't think it's going to move very much between now and the weekend.

You model hugger you! :lol:

Hey, did you see today's 12z GFS? Has a major cane ripping into NOLA.



ha!!! :lol: Well I am hugging the NAM model right now....only one that showed this developing...looks good right now...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#786 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 15, 2011 1:09 pm

12z Canadian does try to spin it up as it approaches CA...looks resaonable but this is not likely to be the big daddy it could have been a few days ago.

Image
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Re: Re:

#787 Postby Tireman4 » Mon Aug 15, 2011 1:09 pm

Portastorm wrote:
petit_bois wrote:we all need to keep in mind that a ridge forcast over 5 days out is very very iffy at best.


With all due respect, you don't know our Death Ridge then. While it has nudged a little east and a little west here and there during the summer, it essentially has not budged. This ridge is far from "iffy."



Can we name him? LOL
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#788 Postby dwsqos2 » Mon Aug 15, 2011 1:10 pm

12Z Euro looks marginally stronger through 48 hours compared to previous rus.
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Re: Re:

#789 Postby Tireman4 » Mon Aug 15, 2011 1:13 pm

wxman57 wrote:
ndale wrote:Wxman57, you mentioned the high over Texas, do we have any idea when this ridge will weaken enough or move far enough away to ever allow us any good chances for rain.


GFS and Euro are saying in 8-10 days - next week (Wed-Thu).



Really? That is the best news I have heard yet ( the Ridge)...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#790 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 15, 2011 1:13 pm

yeah Port....I saw the 384HR GFS....nasty run.. :D
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Re:

#791 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 15, 2011 1:14 pm

petit_bois wrote:we all need to keep in mind that a ridge forcast over 5 days out is very very iffy at best.


Not so iffy for a ridge that's BEEN in the same area for 3 months already.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#792 Postby Flyinman » Mon Aug 15, 2011 1:14 pm

I do not trust these ridges at all. Even though this "death" ridge has been in place for quite some time with minor shifts in all directions, I always think of Rita. Rita was supposed to go into Northern Mexico/South Texas. All models predicted the High to stay in place. However, all of a sudden the Ridge began to move a little to the East each day. Rita just kept creeping WNW until it hit me (Beaumont) directly!

I have no reason to believe we will see such a drastic shift in this High even though it is predicted to weaken by the end of the week. However, weather has a funny way of throwing us a wrench or 2 every year. That is why we are all on this site for the "excitement."
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#793 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Mon Aug 15, 2011 1:15 pm

If it gets stronger than expected, then it may feel the weakness, turning it wnw to nw through Cuba, like a Emily track scenario.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#794 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 15, 2011 1:16 pm

ROCK wrote:yeah Port....I saw the 384HR GFS....nasty run.. :D


BTW that system is being discussed in talking tropics. It is actually the wave right off the African coast right now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#795 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 15, 2011 1:16 pm

18z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 151807
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1807 UTC MON AUG 15 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932011) 20110815 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110815  1800   110816  0600   110816  1800   110817  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.6N  59.2W   13.9N  62.5W   14.6N  66.2W   15.5N  69.9W
BAMD    13.6N  59.2W   13.9N  62.2W   14.4N  65.3W   15.1N  68.2W
BAMM    13.6N  59.2W   13.9N  62.3W   14.5N  65.5W   15.2N  68.7W
LBAR    13.6N  59.2W   14.0N  62.6W   14.4N  66.3W   15.1N  69.9W
SHIP        25KTS          32KTS          42KTS          51KTS
DSHP        25KTS          32KTS          42KTS          51KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110817  1800   110818  1800   110819  1800   110820  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.5N  73.6W   17.8N  80.2W   18.3N  85.3W   18.9N  89.8W
BAMD    15.8N  70.9W   17.2N  75.6W   18.3N  79.6W   19.2N  83.4W
BAMM    16.0N  71.8W   17.5N  77.2W   18.8N  81.8W   19.9N  86.3W
LBAR    15.9N  73.5W   16.9N  79.6W   15.4N  83.3W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        60KTS          73KTS          81KTS          87KTS
DSHP        60KTS          73KTS          81KTS          87KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.6N LONCUR =  59.2W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  19KT
LATM12 =  13.4N LONM12 =  55.1W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 =  21KT
LATM24 =  13.0N LONM24 =  50.6W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   70NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
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Re: Re:

#796 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 15, 2011 1:17 pm

wxman57 wrote:
petit_bois wrote:we all need to keep in mind that a ridge forcast over 5 days out is very very iffy at best.


Not so iffy for a ridge that's BEEN in the same area for 3 months already.



true.....but the odds are that it breaks increases with each passing day....climo speaking.... :lol:
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#797 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 15, 2011 1:17 pm

18z Best Track

AL, 93, 2011081518, , BEST, 0, 136N, 592W, 25, 1010, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#798 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 15, 2011 1:19 pm

12z Euro does indeed spin this up during its journey through the Caribbean....


96 hours

Image

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#799 Postby dwsqos2 » Mon Aug 15, 2011 1:19 pm

I don't care about ridges; I only care about genesis. And, the Euro has a 1005 mb low east of Honduras at hour 96.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#800 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 15, 2011 1:19 pm

SHIPS up to 87 knots.....12z Guidance looks much more bullish
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