The last 2 runs of the GFS have shown the tropical wave about to come off of Africa right now developing into a tropical cyclone as it approaches the Lesser Antilles in 192 hours.
Here is the satellite imagery of it: http://www.sat24.com/af
Here is tonight's 0z GFS run: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M
The Euro has been hinting at this wave developing in some of its past few runs too.
Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic -(Now Invest 97L)
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South Texas Storms
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Hurricaneman
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Re: Tropical Wave about to come off Africa
http://maps.weather.com/images/sat/tropsat_720x486.jpg
This wave looks to have good vorticity, we'll see what happens when this hits the ocean and we must keep an eye on model trends, the euro and GFS are developing this
This wave looks to have good vorticity, we'll see what happens when this hits the ocean and we must keep an eye on model trends, the euro and GFS are developing this
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BigB0882
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How many models did something with what was 93L as it came off of Africa? I don't have the images saved but I am pretty sure all of them did at some point. Now you have to pay one of the models to show development. 
If this thing can get well out into the Atlantic without going poof then maybe I will pay attention to the models.
I am rooting for it, would be fun to have a long tracker.
If this thing can get well out into the Atlantic without going poof then maybe I will pay attention to the models.
I am rooting for it, would be fun to have a long tracker.
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HurricaneWarning92
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Yep, i dont trust the models anymore, at least for now. But of course ill keep an eye on it.
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HurricaneWarning92
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So im assuming this is the wave the models are doing something with...
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SFLcane
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Re: Tropical Wave about to come off Africa
06z GFS long-range seems to develope this current TW and brings it up the eastcoast of the U.S. as a formidable hurricane.
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Ivanhater
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Re: Tropical Wave about to come off Africa
Yes..the 12z GFS slams this into the Gulf coast
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Michael
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cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave about to come off Africa
TROPICAL WAVE HAS PUSHED OFF THE AFRICAN COAST EXTENDING FROM
19N20W TO 12N19W MOVING W 10-15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CLEAR CUT CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE WAVE AXIS CONFIRMED
BY AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM THIS MORNING. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IS ALSO MOVING OFF THE AFRICAN COAST IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY S
OF THE AXIS FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 15W-22W.
19N20W TO 12N19W MOVING W 10-15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CLEAR CUT CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE WAVE AXIS CONFIRMED
BY AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM THIS MORNING. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IS ALSO MOVING OFF THE AFRICAN COAST IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY S
OF THE AXIS FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 15W-22W.
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CaneCurious
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Re: Tropical Wave about to come off Africa
Ivanhater wrote:Yes..the 12z GFS slams this into the Gulf coast
It looks like it comes right through my front door.
As history shows, I'm probably safe since the models are showing it hitting here in the early runs.
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Ivanhater
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Re: Tropical Wave about to come off Africa
There it is..looks like it has some friends over Africa that want to play as well ...Luis is this a Pouch yet? If not it will be one soon.
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Michael
Models don't suggest a fast developer but that probably would suggest more of a threat down the line for the Caribbean...
The 12z GFS is certainly eye-catching, but long way off yet!
The 12z GFS is certainly eye-catching, but long way off yet!
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Re: Tropical Wave off Africa
16 days out is pretty inaccurate or have there been runs that called strms that far out?
It's still crazy to see that run, and would mean MANY months of overtime and headaches.
It's still crazy to see that run, and would mean MANY months of overtime and headaches.
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cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave off Africa
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cycloneye
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Re: Pouch P17L off African Coast
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May well be invested in the next day or two providing it doesn'ty weaken too much between now and then!
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Ivanhater
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Re: Pouch P17L off African Coast
12z Euro..192 hours. Bombing out!
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Ridging to the north
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Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Ridging to the north
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Michael
Deep upper trough coming down at 192hrs, maybe a close call as to recurve or not this run, but any further south like the 12z GFS and it'll miss its connection out.
Ridging just holding at 192hrs...I bet a weakness opens up at 216hrs.
Ridging just holding at 192hrs...I bet a weakness opens up at 216hrs.
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Ivanhater
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Re:
KWT wrote:Deep upper trough coming down at 192hrs, maybe a close call as to recurve or not this run, but any further south like the 12z GFS and it'll miss its connection out.
Or any delay in development like we have seen many times this season
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Michael
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