ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Tireman4]

So far, HWRF has been a joke of a model. It can't come close to replacing the GFDL yet.

Its been awful, and to be fair the GFDL hasn't been great either. May do better once there is actually a few systems develop a proper low level circulation!

The GFDL does much better when there's an active storm. The HWRF does poorly for everything.

Then, why have the HWRF? Just to give them another set of models?

[GCANE]

Intensity models are bullish

http://image5.flhurricane.com/images/20 ... latest.png

If those truly pan out, I would expect a more pole-ward track than currently advertised.

[wxman57]

Then, why have the HWRF? Just to give them another set of models?

The HWRF was supposed to be the next great hurricane model to replace the GFDL. Unfortunately, it hasn't turned out to be the model everyone was hoping for. It's still in development, though.

[KWT]

I think the answer to that point GCANE is it probably won't develop as fast as those models are currently suggesting. It does look better but still a way to go till it actually develops.

[Bluefrog]

Just curious ... how is my planned cruise to Cozumel looking for Friday night docking and Saturday at port ?!?!?!?

[ROCK]

Then, why have the HWRF? Just to give them another set of models?

The HWRF was supposed to be the next great hurricane model to replace the GFDL. Unfortunately, it hasn't turned out to be the model everyone was hoping for. It's still in development, though.

it so far right biased it aint even funny....the HWRF has been trying to replace the GFDL for about 3 years now...ha

[KWT]

Yeah it does have a pretty bad right bias, problem has been its tendency to overdo systems development this season.

[cycloneye]

A very timid west wind in Martinique.

Code: Select all

Current Weather Conditions:
Le Lamentin, Martinique 
(TFFF) 14-36N 061-00W 7M 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
Conditions at  Aug 15, 2011 - 03:00 PM EDTAug 15, 2011 - 02:00 PM CDTAug 15, 2011 - 01:00 PM MDTAug 15, 2011 - 12:00 PM PDTAug 15, 2011 - 11:00 AM ADTAug 15, 2011 - 09:00 AM HST
2011.08.15 1900 UTC 
Wind  from the W (260 degrees) at 1 MPH (1 KT) 
Visibility  greater than 7 mile(s) 
Sky conditions  mostly cloudy 
Temperature  80 F (27 C) 
Dew Point  75 F (24 C) 
Relative Humidity  83% 
Pressure (altimeter)  29.85 in. Hg (1011 hPa)


[KWT]

I doubt the NHC are going to using that west wind for an upgrade somehow

[wxman57]

Just curious ... how is my planned cruise to Cozumel looking for Friday night docking and Saturday at port ?!?!?!?

You serious? Could be diverted northward until the storm passes on Sunday.

[Ivanhater]

Here "he" comes!

[Ivanhater]

BOC bound a good possibility

[Ivanhater]

What a change a day makes

[KWT]

Still not seeing much if anything at the low levels...BUT the presentation has indeed improved so I'd certainly go with a code orange.

[cycloneye]

Is moving fast now but it will slowdown in the Eastern Caribbean.

[KWT]

I personally feel it'll be on the southern portion of that model guidence, still generally there is good agreement on a track towards CA, either through Belieze or through the Yucatan.

[South Texas Storms]

Any chance on this hitting south TX/northern MX? I feel like it is still in the realm of possibilities...

[HURRICANELONNY]

First there has to be a center point before there can be agreement with any model. I agree if 93L doesn't form before 70w then it will most likely stay south. If it forms before 70w. I would think at least Texas would have a chance.

[wxman57]

Any chance on this hitting south TX/northern MX? I feel like it is still in the realm of possibilities...

Not with that massive ridge forecast to continue to dominate Texas into the coming weekend. Here's the latest GFS forecast for mean steering flow 400mb-700mb valid Sunday morning, which matches the Euro and Canadian:

[Ivanhater]

Any chance on this hitting south TX/northern MX? I feel like it is still in the realm of possibilities...

Highly doubtful imo. It could get further north and hit the Yucatan as the weakness in the Gulf pulls on it, if the system gets strong enough but it will likely get shoved back west as the ridge builds back over Texas.