ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[scogor]

Getting some nice sideways rain right now--the tourists that don't live in "hurricane territory" are probably freaking out

[Gustywind]

For info Meteo-France Guadeloupe report a gust near 78 km/H at la Désirade, 70 km/H at la Soufrière and 50 km/H near les Abymes and le Moule. With any doubts it's the signature of a very vigourous twave. Hopefully and for the moment... amount of rain are not so important 20 to 40 millimeters have fallen on much of the island always given our Pro Mets of Guadeloupe.
Be safe and dry my friend in the islands.

Gustywind

[Cuber]

and Gusty ... keep the hatches battened and the computer case siliconed. Your live eye reports are always informative.

[floridasun78]

it look like their spin with 93l . gustywind i hope you safe be safe my friend

[colbroe]

Good evening 93L looks to be a rapidly developing tropical system with a low in place you can see the size of this system it emerges into the Caribbean sea ,stay safe everyone .

[storm4u]

93l is going to go nuts on the 18z gfs

[TwisterFanatic]

93l is going to go nuts on the 18z gfs

Actually, it did nothing with it again.

[scogor]

Lots of lightning out there right now. Stay safe, everyone in this neck of the islands!

[Gustywind]

it look like their spin with 93l . gustywind i hope you safe be safe my friend

Thanks my friend, i appreciate.

[painkillerr]

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[abajan]

The 8 PM TWO will almost certainly be 30% or more.

[Gustywind]

93L

[msbee]

I see lots of lightning to the south and east but no rain yet on St. Maarten. I think the worst of it is passing to our south.

[cycloneye]

Remains at 20%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GERT...LOCATED ABOUT 135 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. THERE ARE NO
SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME AND PRESSURES ARE NOT
FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH OVER
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[SouthDadeFish]

Not surprising it stays at 20%. Until the NHC see's a surface pressure drop or sustained convection I don't think they will raise the %...

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 93, 2011081600, , BEST, 0, 136N, 613W, 25, 1010, DB

[tolakram]

Nothing at the surface so the expected poofation (deep scientific term ) in progress. I wonder if this will tease us like Emily did.

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models:

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 160037
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0037 UTC TUE AUG 16 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932011) 20110816 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110816  0000   110816  1200   110817  0000   110817  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.6N  61.3W   14.1N  64.6W   15.1N  68.0W   16.1N  71.4W
BAMD    13.6N  61.3W   13.9N  64.5W   14.5N  67.7W   15.2N  70.6W
BAMM    13.6N  61.3W   14.0N  64.4W   14.7N  67.5W   15.5N  70.5W
LBAR    13.6N  61.3W   14.0N  65.1W   14.5N  68.8W   15.2N  72.7W
SHIP        25KTS          29KTS          37KTS          46KTS
DSHP        25KTS          29KTS          37KTS          46KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110818  0000   110819  0000   110820  0000   110821  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.2N  74.7W   19.1N  80.7W   20.7N  85.3W   22.3N  89.6W
BAMD    15.9N  73.4W   17.3N  78.2W   18.3N  82.3W   18.7N  86.4W
BAMM    16.5N  73.4W   18.2N  78.6W   19.8N  83.1W   20.9N  87.5W
LBAR    15.9N  76.2W   17.2N  82.1W   16.4N  85.9W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        57KTS          76KTS          86KTS          92KTS
DSHP        57KTS          71KTS          81KTS          71KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.6N LONCUR =  61.3W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =  20KT
LATM12 =  13.5N LONM12 =  57.3W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 =  20KT
LATM24 =  13.2N LONM24 =  52.9W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   70NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[SouthDadeFish]

As of 00Z, 93L's 850mb vorticity decreased slightly, while the 700mb stayed relatively the same, and the 500mb vorticity really ramped up. Seems like it has worked its way up and is well established at the mid-levels. From this point of view, it is as well organized as it has ever been. I'm thinking another convective burst will get the lower-levels going again and perhaps we will then see an LLC try and spin up. This process will most likely wait until around 70W. Just my opinion though.

[Macrocane]

It seems that this is something that we need to watch in Central America, especially northern Nicaragua, Honduras and Belize as today most of the global models (CMC, Euro, NOGAPS, UKMET, FIM) developed this system in the 12z runs.