Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic -(Now Invest 97L)

[Ivanhater]

What kind of track did it take to get there, Caribbean or near SFL?

Caribbean

[cycloneye]

I just noticed something interesting looking at this Euro map.

On Page 116 of the Global Model Runs Discussion thread, cycloneye posted an article from Crown Weather on July 25, 2011 which mentioned the CFS model (which gives guidance) showing three significant tropical cyclones at the same time across the basin on August 26, 2011 with one over Florida, the second one NE of the Leewards and the third one in the Atlantic heading towards the islands.

What I mean by this is that this EURO run shows a hurricane in the Bahamas on the 25th of August and the CFS model shows a Florida hit on the 26th.

If I'm not mistaken the CFS model pretty much nailed the pattern last season with the recurving storms and nailed Earl even before it began (per KWT)

*Cue Twilight Zone theme*

To refresh the memory about this graphic of August 26th posted on July 25th,here it is again.

[Hurricaneman]

I just noticed something interesting looking at this Euro map.

On Page 116 of the Global Model Runs Discussion thread, cycloneye posted an article from Crown Weather on July 25, 2011 which mentioned the CFS model (which gives guidance) showing three significant tropical cyclones at the same time across the basin on August 26, 2011 with one over Florida, the second one NE of the Leewards and the third one in the Atlantic heading towards the islands.

What I mean by this is that this EURO run shows a hurricane in the Bahamas on the 25th of August and the CFS model shows a Florida hit on the 26th.

If I'm not mistaken the CFS model pretty much nailed the pattern last season with the recurving storms and nailed Earl even before it began (per KWT)

*Cue Twilight Zone theme*

To refresh the memory about this graphic of August 26th posted on July 25th,here it is again.

http://www.crownweather.com/tropgraphics/cfs852.gif

Thats pretty wierd if this even comes close to looking like that map

[cycloneye]

Convergence looks good.



Divergence also looks good.

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS...153 hours

[Ivanhater]

165 hours

[FireRat]

WOW, very believable runs.

After August 15th-19th, there's another time frame that I've been believing could bring something hurricane related, August 22nd-28th with the 27th being the peak date. I find it a bit chilling that according to the model runs posted, on August 25th there could be something strengthening in the Bahamas heading towards Florida...maybe to hit right right around the 27th.

So far no much has happened in the Atlantic and little if anything looks like will happen in the tropics over the remainder of the August 15th-19th time frame I mentioned weeks ago on other threads. Due to that, I'm gonna take the next time frame as a wait and see attitude, but man those model runs for this new tropical wave really makes me think!

For all its worth I'd say to take the models a bit more seriously than usual if they pick out August 27th or dates near (8/25-2/28) as hurricane landfall dates as time goes on.

[maxintensity]

This looks like it could be a bigger US threat than 93L at the moment. Will be a lot of fun tracking this one if it does indeed develop. Maybe the NHC will invest it in the near future.

[Ivanhater]

189 hours

[Hurricaneman]

looks like its having problems with hispaniola this run

[Scorpion]

Very close to FL this run

[lonelymike]

Good to see the board getting whipped up over a few model runs Should make for some great late nite comedy for the next week

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS...South Carolina. Very interesting for the GFS to show a U.S landfall multiple runs in a row



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[cycloneye]

looks like its having problems with hispaniola this run

It survived Hispanola. But of course,is way far out and you know the drill.

[Ivanhater]

Like I said earlier. This is the biggest threat so far this season. Gulf coast and SE coast needs to be on alert for this one, not worried but be on alert for this one.

[KWT]

Very interesting run on the 18z, it takes a track that is nearly identical to Emily but is stronger...

Going to need close watching, just waiting for it to become an invest.

[HurricaneWarning92]

Looking good so far...

[lonelymike]

Like I said earlier. This is the biggest threat so far this season. Gulf coast and SE coast needs to be on alert for this one, not worried but be on alert for this one.

What's King Euro do with this feature?

[Hurricaneman]

Like I said earlier. This is the biggest threat so far this season. Gulf coast and SE coast needs to be on alert for this one, not worried but be on alert for this one.

What's King Euro do with this feature?

The Euro goes north of the islands into the bahamas near Florida, Same time on the GFS the system is close to the same position, but gets there by going through hispaniola so both get right next to Florida through different paths and I suspect if you extended the Euro's path it would make landfall in the same place, South Carolina, but as we all know the path could be different from what is currently modeled


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

No mention at 8 PM TWO.