Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic -(Now Invest 97L)

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SouthDadeFish
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#61 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Aug 15, 2011 6:47 pm

After seeing what happened to 93L I'm hesitant to declare anything a large threat yet.
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Re: Pouch P17L off African Coast

#62 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Aug 15, 2011 6:58 pm

i wont believe models untill area pass 50w look what happen to 93l
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Re: Pouch P17L off African Coast

#63 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 15, 2011 7:03 pm

8 PM TWD:

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE FAR EAST TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM
19N20W TO 11N20W MOVING W 5-10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CLEAR CUT CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE WAVE AXIS CONFIRMED
BY AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
MOVING OFF THE AFRICAN COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 80-140
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS S OF 15N.
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#64 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Aug 15, 2011 7:09 pm

After reading the 8pm discussion I'm thinking this will be tagged 97L soon.
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Re: Pouch P17L off African Coast

#65 Postby OuterBanker » Mon Aug 15, 2011 7:22 pm

There is one big difference that will come to play the next three weeks as the African waves and any close in development. Great MoJO. In fact in three weeks it will be at its peak. I really think the lid is about to come off.
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#66 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Mon Aug 15, 2011 7:28 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:After seeing what happened to 93L I'm hesitant to declare anything a large threat yet.


Exactly. Not one person should lose one minute of sleep over this, including anyone in the islands. These models have been HORRIBLE and don't seem to be getting any better as time goes by. Whats more impressive to me is the huge low forecast in Canada in the same timeframe. That thing is impressive. Lets give this til the weekend then come back to it and see whats going on.
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Re: Pouch P17L off African Coast

#67 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Aug 15, 2011 7:34 pm

it look like models are not picking up dryair that well
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#68 Postby BigB0882 » Mon Aug 15, 2011 7:35 pm

I refuse to believe the H will move from Texas so the majority of the Gulf Coast should be sitting pretty.

I hope I am wrong, Lord knows people need the rain in TX!

ONLY MY OPINION!
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Re: Pouch P17L off African Coast

#69 Postby StormClouds63 » Mon Aug 15, 2011 7:58 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:After seeing what happened to 93L I'm hesitant to declare anything a large threat yet.


Looks similar to Emily in terms of size and structure when she emerged into the Atlantic ... so I tend to agree with you at this point.
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Re:

#70 Postby Tireman4 » Mon Aug 15, 2011 8:16 pm

BigB0882 wrote:I refuse to believe the H will move from Texas so the majority of the Gulf Coast should be sitting pretty.

I hope I am wrong, Lord knows people need the rain in TX!

ONLY MY OPINION!


By the time this thing gets near us or near US, the high may have migrated West...
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Re: Re:

#71 Postby TYNI » Mon Aug 15, 2011 8:43 pm

Tireman4 wrote:
BigB0882 wrote:I refuse to believe the H will move from Texas so the majority of the Gulf Coast should be sitting pretty.

I hope I am wrong, Lord knows people need the rain in TX!

ONLY MY OPINION!


By the time this thing gets near us or near US, the high may have migrated West...


Hopefully the model runs in the next two or three days will show us this.
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Re: Pouch P17L off African Coast

#72 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 15, 2011 8:52 pm

I think it's time to get the preparedness kits out


Above quote is from member TYNI on another thread,but nails it bigtime.Regardless of what the models show,you must prepare as we are now entering the peak of the season.
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Re: Pouch P17L off African Coast

#73 Postby Blown Away » Mon Aug 15, 2011 9:28 pm

Looking at the WV loop you can see a nice moisture envelope around this wave, which is what the previous waves didn't have. I think this will be an invest tomorrow and a future player!
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Re: Pouch P17L off African Coast

#74 Postby TYNI » Mon Aug 15, 2011 9:33 pm

cycloneye wrote:
I think it's time to get the preparedness kits out


Above quote is from member TYNI on another thread,but nails it bigtime.Regardless of what the models show,you must prepare as we are now entering the peak of the season.



Thanks Cycloneye! My concern stems from the fact that we are just coming off having four active invests in the Atlantic basin at the same time, two have become tropical storms, one is still kicking (93L, though barely), the MJO is forecast to be favourable, and evidence shows we are entering La Nina earlier than anticipated.

Pouch P17L seems to have consistent support for development, and I suspect the models see a trend towards a more stable, positive conditions in the MDR in the upcoming weeks.

Time will tell.
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Scorpion

#75 Postby Scorpion » Mon Aug 15, 2011 11:40 pm

Good bit stronger this run so far

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Scorpion

#76 Postby Scorpion » Mon Aug 15, 2011 11:48 pm

Big hit

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Re: Pouch P17L off African Coast

#77 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 15, 2011 11:57 pm

Tampa is destroyed on that run......nice to know its 300hr out....whew... :lol:

0Z GFS

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#78 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Aug 15, 2011 11:58 pm

For now it seems as though with every run it shifts it further east.
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Re: Pouch P17L off African Coast

#79 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Aug 16, 2011 12:00 am

Its west of the 18 z run, but the runs are as follows 12z New Orleans, 18z Charleston and now has Tampa
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Re: Pouch P17L off African Coast

#80 Postby South Texas Storms » Tue Aug 16, 2011 12:02 am

Rock which system do you think is more likely to give us rain? 93L or this?
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