ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[supercane]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 160531
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GERT...LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE TROPICAL
WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING
AND DEVELOPMENT...IF AT ALL...OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR
UNTIL IT REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IN A FEW DAYS. THIS WAVE HAS
A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[xironman]

Actually looking at the shortwave today the cyclonic motion is much better than the past few days, still running a bit fast though.

[KWT]

Not looking great but then again Wxman57 is right, its chances are really in the W.Caribbean, not huge but certainly decent enough.

[KWT]

Yep that nogaps run is pretty likely, near due west into CA but with possibble last gasp at development before it reaches CA.

[GCANE]

It's nearly like clockwork. 12hrs on and 12hrs off.

That TUTT to the NE has a really good poleward outflow channel set up and there is still an anti-cyclone overhead.

Wait till this gets south of Hispaniola.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

[South Texas Storms]

Convection is starting to increase with 93L just in time with DMAX.

You are 100 percent right GCANE. It's time for 12 hours on right now.

[lostsole]

Gtta love the dome of protection set up over the gulf coast!! Nothing like a do-nothing storm tracking no where near me So far so good, the season is not over yet, but I like the way storms are struggling!!!!!!!!!!!!

[KWT]

00z ECM actually does weakly develop this, probably no more then a TD but it does show a closed low.

[xironman]

I don't know, it has been lacking spin every time I have looked at it the past few days, but today it seems to have that back and the vorticity maps agree. This time it may be different.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[xironman]

If you get bored there is always the HWRF for amusement.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GERT...LOCATED ABOUT 410 MILES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A
SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS WAVE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[GCANE]

True, latest SCAT does not show a surface low, but IR does have a good circulation at 700mb.

Can also see a good vorticity at 850mb.

The current COC is tagged at 14N 65.1W.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=4kmsrbdc&storm_identifier=AL932011&starting_image=2011AL93_4KMSRBDC_201108160415.jpg

Just needs one good hot-tower to fire off and push it to the surface.

[scogor]

Waking up to wind and rain at Frigate Bay in St. Kitts with some breaks in the clouds off to the east.

[GCANE]

Core is more symmetric now as compared to yesterday afternoon.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/products/storms/2011AL93/AMSUPLOT/2011AL93_AMSUPLOT_201108160606_TANO.GIF

However it is compressed lower in altitude at about 8km.

Typical warm cores are around 12km.

This is the same pattern I have been seeing for the last couple weeks.

Core altitudes oscillate between 12km, for about 12 hrs, to 8km for another 12 hrs.

Mid-level PV anomaly is improved as well since yesterday afternoon.

RMW, at about 100km, is stronger and closer to the COC.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/products/storms/2011AL93/AMSUPLOT/2011AL93_AMSUPLOT_201108160606_VGRD.GIF


Just needs to get some strong convection firing.

[GCANE]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

Overshooting Tops (OTs) seem to continue to fire past DMAX.

This may build a good cirrus canopy.

Solar heating of the canopy (diabatic heating) could help to reposition the warm-core higher in altitude today.

[Frank2]

Core?

Not much there folks - just a fast-moving west-east aligned wave...

Frank

[northjaxpro]

Yeah Frank I agree. 93L is trucking through the Eastern Caribbean at a very good clip. This entity has to slow its forward speed to organize. I think upon entering the Western Caribbean on its approach to Central America will be the best opportunity for 93L to spin up and organize in the next 48 hours.

[Gustywind]

Very strong showers are falling here since 1 hour. Given the latest sat pic of the radar, Guadeloupe should continue to experience strong episode of showers and isolated tstorms.

For info, Meteo-France Martinica reported also strong gustywinds reaching 80 km/h au Cazdet and the Vauclin (southern part of Martinica), 70 km/h at la Caravelle and 65 km/h at Desaix.
As Guadeloupe, this vigorous twave hopefully has not bring too much amount of water in Martinica (Meteo-France Martinica weather source) with "only" values between 30 to 40 millimeters: for example 37,6 millimeters at le Précheur Savane and 35,6 millimeters at Ajoupa aileron.

[Gustywind]

Little closeup. Heavy rain spreading on Guadeloupe for now. Thunder is rumbling nicely too.

[cycloneye]

12z Tropical Models:

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 161307
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1307 UTC TUE AUG 16 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932011) 20110816 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110816  1200   110817  0000   110817  1200   110818  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.8N  65.4W   14.6N  69.2W   15.3N  73.2W   16.2N  76.7W
BAMD    13.8N  65.4W   14.4N  68.6W   15.0N  71.5W   15.6N  74.4W
BAMM    13.8N  65.4W   14.3N  68.8W   14.8N  72.2W   15.4N  75.4W
LBAR    13.8N  65.4W   14.5N  69.1W   15.3N  72.7W   16.0N  76.1W
SHIP        25KTS          27KTS          32KTS          40KTS
DSHP        25KTS          27KTS          32KTS          40KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110818  1200   110819  1200   110820  1200   110821  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.3N  79.9W   16.2N  85.2W   15.8N  89.5W   15.7N  93.7W
BAMD    16.2N  77.0W   17.1N  81.8W   17.8N  86.0W   18.3N  90.6W
BAMM    15.8N  78.2W   16.2N  83.3W   16.4N  87.9W   16.3N  92.8W
LBAR    16.9N  79.2W   18.7N  84.1W   20.8N  87.8W   23.1N  92.0W
SHIP        50KTS          71KTS          86KTS          96KTS
DSHP        50KTS          71KTS          86KTS          34KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.8N LONCUR =  65.4W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  20KT
LATM12 =  13.6N LONM12 =  61.3W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 =  20KT
LATM24 =  13.5N LONM24 =  57.3W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   70NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM