Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic -(Now Invest 97L)

[Blown Away]

00z EURO:

[Aric Dunn]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Anyone else notice the last few days of model runs.... there is a remarkable agreement from the GFS, Euro, and a few others.. but the big boys the GFS and EURO over the last few days ( nearly 6 runs of euro and 12 of GFS) have tracked basically within the black cone. I cant recall ( especially this season) when they have been in such good agreement over so many runs. The other oddity is the rather timid GFS has a strong hurricane also in line with the euro. It is rather far out but the deviation is really quite small considering the two models typically dont like to agree... so you cant just pass that off... So if we do get development before the islands I would put a little money on a track somewhere in the cone. which is saying a lot being that the cone is rather narrow and the system is no where near developing yet.

[Blown Away]

Great post Aric! What I notice is no sharp recurve over or just E of Florida w/ GFS, that says ridging building in.

[cycloneye]

The latest synopsis of pouch P17L made by the predict team.

Note=This synopsis was made last night around 8 PM EDT.

SYNOPSIS 2011081600

P17L
13N, 22W
700 hPa


ECMWF: Large, easily-tracked pouch. Weakens early, followed by a small recovery, then steady, "borderline" intensity. Westward track with a turn to the northwest around 50W.

GFS: Like ECMWF, GFS depicts a turn to the northwest at the end of the five-day forecast, but only after GFS has gone to the southwest for a few days. Also, unlike ECMWF's singular pouch, GFS continues to depict a secondary, monsoonal pouch that forms in P17L's wake near the African coast. That secondary pouch gradually dissipates.

UKMET: Large, distinct pouch that slowly weakens for most of the five-day forecast.

NOGAPS: Weaker than the other models. Similar to GFS in that NOGAPS develops another pouch in P17L's wake. GFS seems to keep the two circulations separated, but NOGAPS depicts them as temporarily merged together around 36-48 hours, which leads to uncertainty in P17L's position.

HWRF-GEN: Smooth, generally westward track. Slightly weakening early, followed by "borderline" intensity for the next few days and then intensifying as P17L near 50W.

ECMWF -8.1 v700 120h
GFS -8.8 v700 120h
UKMET -9.5 v700 120h
NOGAPS -9.4 v700 120h
HWGEN -8.5 v700 & RH 120h

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/P17L.html

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/synops ... 081600.txt

[ConvergenceZone]

If this becomes an invest soon, this board is about to get very active.

[Stormcenter]

I agree with your response....thanks.

We've seen models hype a system for many days in a row and then poof!

Seriously though we'll see if this "actually" pans out in the coming days.

True StormCenter, It's different this time out though. This is the first time we've seen most of the models very bullish AND STRONG on a storm and they seem to be consistent. Plus, it's closer to peak season, which increases the reality that this could be the real deal.
Now, it's always possible you could be right, but just saying that the chances this time around are greater than they were before, because of the above mentioned reasons.

[storm4u]

trying to figure out why this isnt an invest yet

[jlauderdal]

If this becomes an invest soon, this board is about to get very active.

i hope it becomes an invest so we don't have to deal with a "pouch"

[HurricaneWarning92]

Wow Miami is right in the middle of it... Well, Florida.

[cycloneye]

Aric,I had to add the S2K disclaimer to your post because of the llamative graphic.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Anyone else notice the last few days of model runs.... there is a remarkable agreement from the GFS, Euro, and a few others.. but the big boys the GFS and EURO over the last few days ( nearly 6 runs of euro and 12 of GFS) have tracked basically within the black cone. I cant recall ( especially this season) when they have been in such good agreement over so many runs. The other oddity is the rather timid GFS has a strong hurricane also in line with the euro. It is rather far out but the deviation is really quite small considering the two models typically dont like to agree... so you cant just pass that off... So if we do get development before the islands I would put a little money on a track somewhere in the cone. which is saying a lot being that the cone is rather narrow and the system is no where near developing yet.

Such a path could be a big storm producer, yet the CONUS may not have to deal with such a monster if it rakes over Hispanola or a big swath of Cuba first. However, this looks scary for someone regardless.
I suspect that the front will assist in lifting this north, but then pull out with the atlantic ridge building westward to close off the escape route to the recurve scenario and force it back to the west.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[northjaxpro]

If this becomes an invest soon, this board is about to get very active.

We have a long time to watch this situation develop, but no doubt we will have likely a 300 page + thread in the making if the trends with the models continue. LOL. I can only imagine what the buzz potentially could be.

But, again, let's not get way ahead of ourselves here. Plenty of variables that can take place in the next 10-12 days. So far, it has been a peculiar season with these waves coming off the African coast and really struggling to get their acts together, such as our girl Emily for example.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric,I had to add the S2K disclaimer to your post because of the llamative graphic.

no worries ... I should have not used a "cone" to similar to NHC... what does "llamative" mean lol

[HurricaneWarning92]

Llamative comes from the word "llamativo(a)" which is spanish which means it brings/draws attention to. Though i dont think its a word but it can be simple to catch on if you speak spanish.

[ConvergenceZone]

If this becomes an invest soon, this board is about to get very active.

We have a long time to watch this situation develop, but no doubt we will have likely a 300 page + thread in the making if the trends with the models continue. LOL. I can only imagine what the buzz potentially could be.

But, again, let's not get way ahead of ourselves here. Plenty of variables that can take place in the next 10-12 days. So far, it has been a peculiar season with these waves coming off the African coast and really struggling to get their acts together, such as our girl Emily for example.

One thing for sure, if the models remain constistent on bullish development and if this doesn't develop, I think that's the last straw for me ever caring about the models anymore.... Wolf would have been cried too many times.

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow: Llamative comes from the word "llamativo(a)" which is spanish which means it brings/draws attention to. Though i dont think its a word but it can be simple to catch on if you speak spanish.

yeah no spanish here.. lol

[caneseddy]

12z GFS is rolling.....

[RL3AO]

Looks fantastic on TPW.

[cycloneye]

Looks fantastic on TPW.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks fantastic on TPW.

yeah but look at all the dry air around it. its going to have a hard time. it also has quite a good low level circ. still broad because there is no convection. and wont do anything unless we see some convection soon