Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic -(Now Invest 97L)

[PTrackerLA]

Oh the drama you GFS! Another year another system plowing through Miami and New Orleans .

The thing is, I hate to say it, but the US is overdue for a major hurricane to hit. Our incredibly good luck lately can only sustain itself for so long, and because of our long drys pell avoiding a major, I would be absolutely SHOCKED if a major doesn't impact the US this year.

I kinda feel the same way. Also, if nature has any intent on balancing itself it she would send some storms into the gulf coast regions and of course Texas...simply to make up for drought deficits. She obviously doesn't care about wind and storm surge unfortunately . We aren't in as dire straights as parts of Texas but are still running a 16.50" deficit for the year which is astounding in itself. I'd be lying if I said I wasn't concerned...

[Kory]

The consistancy in the models has me a slight bit on edge...

[Blown Away]

I'm ready to trade in a Pouch for an Invest!

[JTE50]

Oh the drama you GFS! Another year another system plowing through Miami and New Orleans .

Yeah, the GFS could get it's own series on TV! LOL but I follow it - especially this time of year!

[SoupBone]

Oh the drama you GFS! Another year another system plowing through Miami and New Orleans .

The thing is, I hate to say it, but the US is overdue for a major hurricane to hit. Our incredibly good luck lately can only sustain itself for so long, and because of our long drys pell avoiding a major, I would be absolutely SHOCKED if a major doesn't impact the US this year.

This isn't really the way stats work though. Just because we may seem overdue doesn't really mean anything mathematically.

What does have me bothered is the consistent model runs.

[ConvergenceZone]

This isn't really the way stats work though. Just because we may seem overdue doesn't really mean anything mathematically.
What does have me bothered is the consistent model runs.

Yes, but our luck is going to run out very soon. The law of averages always catch up to you, unless
something is completed screwed up with the weather patterns.

[Stormcenter]

All I can say is thank goodness it's the GFS. It won't pan out folks. JMHO

[Kory]

All I can say is thank goodness it's the GFS. It won't pan out folks. JMHO

It isn't just the GFS showing this, the Euro is also showing it.

[Stormcenter]

No model run has ever panned out this far out. So until it happens. I don't buy it even if it's the Euro, GFS or whatever. We all know as we get deeper into the season the models are notorious for spinning up phantom "monster" storms. They couldn't even get 93L right 3 days out.

All I can say is thank goodness it's the GFS. It won't pan out folks. JMHO

It isn't just the GFS showing this, the Euro is also showing it.

[cycloneye]

I'm ready to trade in a Pouch for an Invest!

Sooner rather than later.

[Blown Away]

No model run has ever panned out this far out. So until it happens. I don't buy it even if it's the Euro, GFS or whatever. We all know as we get deeper into the season the models are notorious for spinning up phantom "monster" storms. They couldn't even get 93L right 3 days out.

All I can say is thank goodness it's the GFS. It won't pan out folks. JMHO

It isn't just the GFS showing this, the Euro is also showing it.

Actually pretty good, it's the intensity/development the models miss often on. Look at Emily, Emily track just E of Florida was predicted early.

[Aric Dunn]

No model run has ever panned out this far out. So until it happens. I don't buy it even if it's the Euro, GFS or whatever. We all know as we get deeper into the season the models are notorious for spinning up phantom "monster" storms. They couldn't even get 93L right 3 days out.

All I can say is thank goodness it's the GFS. It won't pan out folks. JMHO

It isn't just the GFS showing this, the Euro is also showing it.

actually thats not the case. there has been many cases where the first many gfs runs panned out... after flip flopping. for instance.. both Dean and felix in 2007... the GFS had carrib runners than for while doing a slight bend wnw across the greater antiles.. then back to carrib runner. it happens more times than you think. but what does not happen as often is multiple models consistently showing the same thing over is now becoming fairly high statistical anomaly.

[Vortex]

12Z Euro should be interesting....

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

No mention in the 2PM TWO

[ConvergenceZone]

No mention in the 2PM TWO

It's way too early to get a mention. Once it builds some convection and if they tag it as an invest,
then it will be mentioned in the TWO. We might be a couple of days away yet.

[SoupBone]

All I can say is thank goodness it's the GFS. It won't pan out folks. JMHO

I don't disagree but consistent model runs certainly have me concerned and glued to my seat.

When we get our first big inconsistent run I might breathe slightly easier.

[micktooth]

Look at the date for that GFS New Orleans hit: Monday, August 29th (hopefully this will NOT be the K storm in 2011)

Wow, talk about "post traumatic stress".... If any large storm gets close to NOLA on 8/29, many people will relive the nightmare of 2005. I for one had to leave NOLA because of Katrina, I'm safe in Colorado, but I do have family down there. Just the mention of 8/29 sends chills down my spine!

[Stormcenter]

I'm talking about actually landfall here 7-10 days out and not track.

No model run has ever panned out this far out. So until it happens. I don't buy it even if it's the Euro, GFS or whatever. We all know as we get deeper into the season the models are notorious for spinning up phantom "monster" storms. They couldn't even get 93L right 3 days out.

All I can say is thank goodness it's the GFS. It won't pan out folks. JMHO

It isn't just the GFS showing this, the Euro is also showing it.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWD

WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING W THROUGH THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS ALONG 17N24W TO 11N27W AT 15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DISTINGUISHABLE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE WAVE AXIS
WHICH MAY BE FORMING A LOW CENTER ON THE WAVE AXIS. THIS
CYCLONIC FLOW IS ALSO EVIDENT IN SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EXTENDING TO 21N.
WHILE NO DEEP CONVECTION IS IN CLOSE VICINITY OF THE WAVE...A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS SW OF IT FROM 7N-10N
BETWEEN 28W-34W.

[Bluefrog]

Look at the date for that GFS New Orleans hit: Monday, August 29th (hopefully this will NOT be the K storm in 2011)

Wow, talk about "post traumatic stress".... If any large storm gets close to NOLA on 8/29, many people will relive the nightmare of 2005. I for one had to leave NOLA because of Katrina, I'm safe in Colorado, but I do have family down there. Just the mention of 8/29 sends chills down my spine!

holy crap that's not even funny Yeah we cant deal with a K storm on the same day .... we would lose our minds here.