Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic -(Now Invest 97L)

[cycloneye]

There is the wheel in motion.

[Stormcenter]

10 plus pages for something that is not even an invest yet. Yep things are definitely slow in the tropics right now.

[KWT]

Pretty strong SAL still nearby, should keep it in check for a while to come but think by 168hrs we should have a developing storm/hurricane through the Caribbean islands.

[ROCK]

both the GFS and EURO painting an ugly picture in the long range though I would like to see it developes first before I bite. HOWEVER if I was living on a tropical island or in SOFLO I would be slowly preparing. ok I am semi-biting.....

Right now its dragging SAL from the north into it...so it will be kept in check for now....

[hurricaneCW]

All this SAL is what may make this system a lot more dangerous because the slower it develops, the more likely it is to impact parts of the U.S. and the islands. I know a lot of people have mentioned it but mostly all of our biggie canes in 05 happened close to home, barely any of them were true Cape Verde storms.

[Gustywind]

10 plus pages for something that is not even an invest yet. Yep things are definitely slow in the tropics right now.

[caneseddy]

12Z UKMET on it too

Similar path to 12z GFS

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal120.gif

[dwsqos2]

The 12Z Euro looks quite weak; it figures. Maye the snoozer of a season will just keep rolling along.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I know this is still a very long way out and has yet to even become anything more than a wave. I have seen several post of different models but none in a loop format, Can anyone please post the animated loops.

[caneseddy]

The 12Z Euro looks quite weak; it figures. Maye the snoozer of a season will just keep rolling along.

Actually, it does keep it weak but rapidly intensifies it in the southern Bahamas

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP192.gif

[dwsqos2]

The 12Z Euro looks quite weak; it figures. Maye the snoozer of a season will just keep rolling along.

Actually, it does keep it weak but rapidly intensifies it in the southern Bahamas

That's yesterday's run from 12Z.

[caneseddy]

The 12Z Euro looks quite weak; it figures. Maye the snoozer of a season will just keep rolling along.

Actually, it does keep it weak but rapidly intensifies it in the southern Bahamas

That's yesterday's run from 12Z.

I noticed that the 216 hour run was from yesterday which is why I changed the link to 192 hours because that's how far the run has gone so far now

Update: Euro loses it completely between 192 and 216 hours, but looks what is coming off of Africa

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP216.gif

[Scorpion]

Ugh, I give up . This season is just pathetic if we can't even get anything going this far into it.

[caneseddy]

Full loop of Euro....very big change from earlier runs....earlier runs had this strengthening east of Florida, now just shows a weak are of low pressure that does not even develop at all and then whatever forms, if anything, goes poof over Hispaniola

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html

[Scorpion]

Full loop of Euro....very big change from earlier runs....does not form anything out of this, but develops a monster off of Africa

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html

Yea, guess it will keep doing that for a couple runs before losing that one too

[KWT]

12z ECM kills the system over Hispaniola Emily style.

GFS has been consistant with developing a strong system, the ECM has been a bit all over the place, some of its recent runs have shown a strong hurricane, a couple like tonights run has shown near nothing...

One run though guys, ONE run...get a grip lol!

[Aric Dunn]

Actually, it does keep it weak but rapidly intensifies it in the southern Bahamas

That's yesterday's run from 12Z.

I noticed that the 216 hour run was from yesterday which is why I changed the link to 192 hours because that's how far the run has gone so far now

Update: Euro loses it completely between 192 and 216 hours, but looks what is coming off of Africa

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP216.gif

only loses it due to the land interaction from the islands. end of run it comes back and track still into florida.
end of run still there.

[Blown Away]

12z ECM kills the system over Hispaniola Emily style.

GFS has been consistant with developing a strong system, the ECM has been a bit all over the place, some of its recent runs have shown a strong hurricane, a couple like tonights run has shown near nothing...

One run though guys, ONE run...get a grip lol!

GFS skims over Hispaniola also, so not suprising to see the ECM show nothing if the systems gets mauled over Hispaniola. As soon as the run misses Hispaniola I bet we see a developed system again.

[Aric Dunn]

12z ECM kills the system over Hispaniola Emily style.

GFS has been consistant with developing a strong system, the ECM has been a bit all over the place, some of its recent runs have shown a strong hurricane, a couple like tonights run has shown near nothing...

One run though guys, ONE run...get a grip lol!

one think to note again... only weaker this run do to land interactions... Also track is essentially the same so run to run consistency is still very good.

[KWT]

To be fair the system is real weak before Hispaniola, its much weaker then the GFS...

A weaker system earilier may not be a bad call given the SAL...