Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic -(Now Invest 97L)

[Aric Dunn]

hey look... I see some tiny bits of convection trying to build ... lol

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... r2_floater

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Full loop of Euro....very big change from earlier runs....earlier runs had this strengthening east of Florida, now just shows a weak are of low pressure that does not even develop at all and then whatever forms, if anything, goes poof over Hispaniola

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html

Thanks for the loop caneseddy, strange how for several runs most models had this going now nothing.

[HurricaneWarning92]

the SAL is annoying me...

[Stormcenter]

This (latest EURO) should not surprise anyone. To predict something that far out is quite honestly a waste of time. Why too many variables that even the models miss. JMHO

[Aric Dunn]

People ... the main focus has not been intensity here... its the synoptic set up. and run to run consistency has not changed.

[Portastorm]

This (latest EURO) should not surprise anyone. To predict something that far out is quite honestly a waste of time. Why too many variables that even the models miss. JMHO

Stormcenter, we get it ... ok? We understand that you are not bullish on development chances. But for the rest of the forum who love to check out model runs and speculate on each one and the chances for development, it is not a waste of time.

[caneseddy]

12z NOGAPS does not show anything with this either looks like, but does show 93L entering the Gulf

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... sLoop.html

[OuterBanker]

That run shows packet 17 l breaking up than heading north along Fl. But that run also shows something interesting. Something forming off the NC coast at the same time and heading out, and another low forming in the east Atlantic. Of course none are gospel this far out, but it does show just how volitile the models think that the Atlantic will be in a week or two.

[SouthFLTropics]

This (latest EURO) should not surprise anyone. To predict something that far out is quite honestly a waste of time. Why too many variables that even the models miss. JMHO

I would agree with this 110%. While it is interesting to sit back and watch models try to "predict" things happening 10+ days from now, in reality it is just a bunch of drama and fantasy most likely. There are too many variables that the models can't pick up on. Global weather and fluid dynamics is an ever changing scenario. Do the models sometime get it right 10+ days out? Yeah, probably. Are they more often wrong at that range? Of course they are. If I had a dollar for everytime a model has destroyed my city I would be fairly rich. We've already been teased many times this year with models showing development only to have them poof away. When we get inside 5 days then I'll put some more credence into the models...up until then it is an interesting work of fiction which "MAY" become reality.

SFT

[Stormcenter]

I know I'm probably in the minority here but they (disturbances/invests) could all go "poof" and I would love it. I think the U.S. has had enough natural disasters in 2011. IMO

[ConvergenceZone]

Ugh, I give up . This season is just pathetic if we can't even get anything going this far into it.

The only way I'll give up on the season if nothing happens by the end of the first week of September, then I'll join the "I give up" team...

[caneseddy]

12z Canadian has a potent system in the Caribbean between PR and Hispaniola...similar to 12z GFS

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MLoop.html

[sunnyday]

I'm going to put in my guess because that's all it is. I think this one will fizzle out, too. This is only my opinion. For accurate info, please see the NHC site.

[Blown Away]

I know I'm probably in the minority here but they (disturbances/invests) could all go "poof" and I would love it. I think the U.S. has had enough natural disasters in 2011. IMO

What is being discussed is long range models showing a hurricane affecting land, do you think you are the only one that realizes 10+ day model predictions have a low probability of actually happening? You wishing everything goes "poof" or someone else "wishing" for a Katrina landfall has no bearing on what will happen. Storm2k members cannot channel the boards energy into systems resulting in a hurricane landfall, thank goodness. So if hypothetical discussions about low probability model runs upsets you, well I guess you know the rest.

[Stormcenter]

It seems as though I may have offended some by anti-disturbance (P17L) comments and I apologize for that. I just call it like I see it. Anyway like I always say it's just my opinion.

te="Blown Away"]

I know I'm probably in the minority here but they (disturbances/invests) could all go "poof" and I would love it. I think the U.S. has had enough natural disasters in 2011. IMO

What is being discussed is long range models showing a hurricane affecting land, do you think you are the only one that realizes 10+ day model predictions have a low probability of actually happening? You wishing everything goes "poof" or someone else "wishing" for a Katrina landfall has no bearing on what will happen. Storm2k members cannot channel the boards energy into systems resulting in a hurricane landfall, thank goodness. So if hypothetical discussions about low probability model runs upsets you, well I guess you know the rest. [/quote]

[Portastorm]

Stormcenter, I don't know if "offended" is an accurate assessment. Perhaps the word "annoyed" is more appropriate. I think people get tired of seeing post after post after post with anti-development statements. If you've got reasoning behind your anti-development posts, let's hear it. I also think people get tired of seeing consistent posts where someone hypes up every system known to a computer model. Again, without sound meteorological reasoning, that sort of thing gets old real quick with many members.

If you think talking about and sharing some enthusiasm about model runs which develop tropical cyclones is a waste of time or a silly endeavor, then you probably should consider being active in other threads. Or, stay in this thread, make those kinds of posts, but don't be surprised when other Storm2Kers fire back at you.

You are more than welcome to your opinion and sharing opinions is what we do here at Storm2K.

[GCANE]

I think it may have to shake out some dry air intrusion.

MIMIC-TPW is showing the ITCZ infeed being cutoff from the west to the south.

IMHO, looks like this will put a lid on convection for a couple days.

Need to watch if it maintains convergence and if it can get an anti-cyclone over it.

[TYNI]

10 plus pages for something that is not even an invest yet. Yep things are definitely slow in the tropics right now.

Slow? 4 invests and 2 TS in the last week, plus this, plus positive environment in the MDR, plus wave train exiting Africa...

I do agree with your wish to have everything go poof, though. No one needs to deal with another monster hurricane... (I wish for rain for Texas, though).

[TYNI]

10 plus pages for something that is not even an invest yet. Yep things are definitely slow in the tropics right now.

On a lighter, off topic note, I was wondering when Gusty would finally shows us a picture of himself...

[RL3AO]

10 plus pages for something that is not even an invest yet. Yep things are definitely slow in the tropics right now.

Slow? 4 invests and 2 TS in the last week, plus this, plus positive environment in the MDR, plus wave train exiting Africa...

I do agree with your wish to have everything go poof, though. No one needs to deal with another monster hurricane... (I wish for rain for Texas, though).

No Major hurricane in August threatening land = slow on here.