Global model runs discussion

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Ivanhater
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2481 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 15, 2011 1:31 pm

That system is being discussed in the Wave off Africa thread. Try to keep posts about that system in that thread.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2482 Postby Texas Snowman » Mon Aug 15, 2011 6:46 pm

Joe Bastardi thinks the lid is about to come off.

A sample of his Tweets today:

* Hurricane Frenzy may develop Aug 25-Sep 5. MJO shuts Sw pac, and leaves atlantic to carry load:
* Reminds of set up of burst in 2008 that lead to several landfalls in a row. coming right at the height of the season
* 4 of the 7 tropical storms so far are not of tropical origin but now the cap is about to come off and we will see the real deal come to life
* GFS looks too far WEST given overall pattern with its hurricane into central gulf coast in 11-15 days. Model sways on every run
* Euro in line with my ideas, more threat to fla in about 10 days, not gulf


I bet by Labor Day, this board roars to life. Got a feeling the Atlantic is about to do so.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2483 Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Aug 15, 2011 9:28 pm

Texas Snowman wrote:Joe Bastardi thinks the lid is about to come off.

A sample of his Tweets today:

* Hurricane Frenzy may develop Aug 25-Sep 5. MJO shuts Sw pac, and leaves atlantic to carry load:
* Reminds of set up of burst in 2008 that lead to several landfalls in a row. coming right at the height of the season
* 4 of the 7 tropical storms so far are not of tropical origin but now the cap is about to come off and we will see the real deal come to life
* GFS looks too far WEST given overall pattern with its hurricane into central gulf coast in 11-15 days. Model sways on every run
* Euro in line with my ideas, more threat to fla in about 10 days, not gulf


I bet by Labor Day, this board roars to life. Got a feeling the Atlantic is about to do so.


Same line of thinking on my part.
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#2484 Postby BigB0882 » Mon Aug 15, 2011 9:42 pm

I agree about the GFS run being too far West with the central Gulf landfall. That H pressure is going to have to do some major moving in the next 10-15 days for that to occur and it has been parked there for, what, 3 months? I have doubts it will move enough in a week or two to open up this part of the Gulf.
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#2485 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Mon Aug 15, 2011 10:15 pm

:uarrow: hmm interesting. So that would mean the south east coast, and according to Joe Bastardi, above, Florida is under greater risk or more of a threat?
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Re:

#2486 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 16, 2011 12:22 am

BigB0882 wrote:I agree about the GFS run being too far West with the central Gulf landfall. That H pressure is going to have to do some major moving in the next 10-15 days for that to occur and it has been parked there for, what, 3 months? I have doubts it will move enough in a week or two to open up this part of the Gulf.


the GFS run is for a system just splashing down off Africa...how can you agree on the GFS at 300hrs? so you feel the ridge is going to stick around until Dec? :lol: it will move.....anyone agreeing the 300+hr GFS is too far one way or another needs to go back and take GFS 101.... :D

I wouldnt trust the GFS (past 216hr let alone 300+) as far as I could throw it and I work out....
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2487 Postby South Texas Storms » Tue Aug 16, 2011 12:29 am

:uarrow: Very true Rock. I'll start to pay attention to it when it gets to 192 hours and less. Right now it's just for laughs... :lol:
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#2488 Postby BigB0882 » Tue Aug 16, 2011 12:36 am

Rock, you misunderstood. I was agreeing that the GFS was WRONG. :lol: I was agreeing with JB's assessment that the GFS was probably too far West on its run showing a central Gulf landfall.

I don't think the ridge will remain until December but I think it will remain into September and by then the chances begin falling substantially for a hit on this portion of the Gulf as it is. Not impossible, as we have clearly seen in recent years, but the chances do go down the further you get into September.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2489 Postby Meso » Tue Aug 16, 2011 5:52 am

Image

Image

Well now... GFS is still at it! Not to mention it also showed the system as a hurricane over PR in the more realistic 180 hour time frame!
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2490 Postby alan1961 » Tue Aug 16, 2011 6:42 am

:eek: A long way to go with the model runs and no doubt
they will change with every run but that is very scary from
the GFS at 300+ hours.

Image
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#2491 Postby BigB0882 » Tue Aug 16, 2011 1:10 pm

Yikes! :eek:

Hopefully, like so many other storms this year, they will not pan out to be anywhere as severe as forecast. I certainly don't trust location this far out but I will admit, GFS is being awfully consistent for itself.
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Re:

#2492 Postby Scorpion » Tue Aug 16, 2011 2:07 pm

BigB0882 wrote:Yikes! :eek:

Hopefully, like so many other storms this year, they will not pan out to be anywhere as severe as forecast. I certainly don't trust location this far out but I will admit, GFS is being awfully consistent for itself.


Consistently bad.. I can't even count how many times the GFS would track a system through the islands a week out for 12 runs in a row only to have nothing happen. This looks like it will probably be the same..
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#2493 Postby KWT » Tue Aug 16, 2011 2:09 pm

Since its a brand new system that I've not seen on any other model, may as well just mention the ECM has a very neat looking CV system by 240hrs, kinda similar to Earl last year in terms of timings, synoptics look the same...

100% recurver though thats for sure given its already fairly high lattiutde.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2494 Postby 'CaneFreak » Tue Aug 16, 2011 2:22 pm

Did someone have a little crack for breakfast? I guess it is that time of day over there in Europe... :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2495 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 16, 2011 2:23 pm

:uarrow: That pic is from March 14.
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Re:

#2496 Postby caneseddy » Tue Aug 16, 2011 2:32 pm

KWT wrote:Since its a brand new system that I've not seen on any other model, may as well just mention the ECM has a very neat looking CV system by 240hrs, kinda similar to Earl last year in terms of timings, synoptics look the same...

100% recurver though thats for sure given its already fairly high lattiutde.


Never say for sure..Ike formed at 17.6 North and was supposed to curve out but instead trucked into the Gulf....so while the odds says recurve, there is always that one that defies climatology :D
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#2497 Postby KWT » Tue Aug 16, 2011 2:34 pm

I think it'd be a fairly safe bet given the east coast troughing redeveloping by 240hrs on that ECM run....

:P
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2498 Postby 'CaneFreak » Tue Aug 16, 2011 2:36 pm

Yep...and if you go over to NHC's Satellite page and click on the East Atlantic, that is the image that comes up :P :lol: :eek:

cycloneye wrote::uarrow: That pic is from March 14.
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Re:

#2499 Postby 'CaneFreak » Tue Aug 16, 2011 2:39 pm

Based on 1 run of the Euro Almighty? HAHAHAHAHAHAHA...is that a forecast I take it? :lol: :lol: :lol:

Edit: If so, you are on...

KWT wrote:I think it'd be a fairly safe bet given the east coast troughing redeveloping by 240hrs on that ECM run....

:P
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Re:

#2500 Postby 'CaneFreak » Tue Aug 16, 2011 3:32 pm

From HPC: USED THE 00Z/16 ECENS MEAN TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND
PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. DO NOT HAVE MUCH FAITH IN ANY ONE
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE MODELS HAVE
SHOWN POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY.



In short, to say that it is a fairly safe bet that there will be east coast troughing redeveloping in 10 days based on one operational run is just ignoring the statistics. Sorry KWT...keep trying though :P :D


KWT wrote:I think it'd be a fairly safe bet given the east coast troughing redeveloping by 240hrs on that ECM run....

:P
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