Global model runs discussion
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- Ivanhater
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
That system is being discussed in the Wave off Africa thread. Try to keep posts about that system in that thread.
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Michael
- Texas Snowman
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
Joe Bastardi thinks the lid is about to come off.
A sample of his Tweets today:
* Hurricane Frenzy may develop Aug 25-Sep 5. MJO shuts Sw pac, and leaves atlantic to carry load:
* Reminds of set up of burst in 2008 that lead to several landfalls in a row. coming right at the height of the season
* 4 of the 7 tropical storms so far are not of tropical origin but now the cap is about to come off and we will see the real deal come to life
* GFS looks too far WEST given overall pattern with its hurricane into central gulf coast in 11-15 days. Model sways on every run
* Euro in line with my ideas, more threat to fla in about 10 days, not gulf
I bet by Labor Day, this board roars to life. Got a feeling the Atlantic is about to do so.
A sample of his Tweets today:
* Hurricane Frenzy may develop Aug 25-Sep 5. MJO shuts Sw pac, and leaves atlantic to carry load:
* Reminds of set up of burst in 2008 that lead to several landfalls in a row. coming right at the height of the season
* 4 of the 7 tropical storms so far are not of tropical origin but now the cap is about to come off and we will see the real deal come to life
* GFS looks too far WEST given overall pattern with its hurricane into central gulf coast in 11-15 days. Model sways on every run
* Euro in line with my ideas, more threat to fla in about 10 days, not gulf
I bet by Labor Day, this board roars to life. Got a feeling the Atlantic is about to do so.
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
Texas Snowman wrote:Joe Bastardi thinks the lid is about to come off.
A sample of his Tweets today:
* Hurricane Frenzy may develop Aug 25-Sep 5. MJO shuts Sw pac, and leaves atlantic to carry load:
* Reminds of set up of burst in 2008 that lead to several landfalls in a row. coming right at the height of the season
* 4 of the 7 tropical storms so far are not of tropical origin but now the cap is about to come off and we will see the real deal come to life
* GFS looks too far WEST given overall pattern with its hurricane into central gulf coast in 11-15 days. Model sways on every run
* Euro in line with my ideas, more threat to fla in about 10 days, not gulf
I bet by Labor Day, this board roars to life. Got a feeling the Atlantic is about to do so.
Same line of thinking on my part.
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I agree about the GFS run being too far West with the central Gulf landfall. That H pressure is going to have to do some major moving in the next 10-15 days for that to occur and it has been parked there for, what, 3 months? I have doubts it will move enough in a week or two to open up this part of the Gulf.
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Re:
BigB0882 wrote:I agree about the GFS run being too far West with the central Gulf landfall. That H pressure is going to have to do some major moving in the next 10-15 days for that to occur and it has been parked there for, what, 3 months? I have doubts it will move enough in a week or two to open up this part of the Gulf.
the GFS run is for a system just splashing down off Africa...how can you agree on the GFS at 300hrs? so you feel the ridge is going to stick around until Dec?


I wouldnt trust the GFS (past 216hr let alone 300+) as far as I could throw it and I work out....
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- South Texas Storms
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion


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Rock, you misunderstood. I was agreeing that the GFS was WRONG.
I was agreeing with JB's assessment that the GFS was probably too far West on its run showing a central Gulf landfall.
I don't think the ridge will remain until December but I think it will remain into September and by then the chances begin falling substantially for a hit on this portion of the Gulf as it is. Not impossible, as we have clearly seen in recent years, but the chances do go down the further you get into September.

I don't think the ridge will remain until December but I think it will remain into September and by then the chances begin falling substantially for a hit on this portion of the Gulf as it is. Not impossible, as we have clearly seen in recent years, but the chances do go down the further you get into September.
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- Meso
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion


Well now... GFS is still at it! Not to mention it also showed the system as a hurricane over PR in the more realistic 180 hour time frame!
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- alan1961
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

they will change with every run but that is very scary from
the GFS at 300+ hours.

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Re:
BigB0882 wrote:Yikes!![]()
Hopefully, like so many other storms this year, they will not pan out to be anywhere as severe as forecast. I certainly don't trust location this far out but I will admit, GFS is being awfully consistent for itself.
Consistently bad.. I can't even count how many times the GFS would track a system through the islands a week out for 12 runs in a row only to have nothing happen. This looks like it will probably be the same..
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Since its a brand new system that I've not seen on any other model, may as well just mention the ECM has a very neat looking CV system by 240hrs, kinda similar to Earl last year in terms of timings, synoptics look the same...
100% recurver though thats for sure given its already fairly high lattiutde.
100% recurver though thats for sure given its already fairly high lattiutde.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
- 'CaneFreak
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
Did someone have a little crack for breakfast? I guess it is that time of day over there in Europe...

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- cycloneye
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re:
KWT wrote:Since its a brand new system that I've not seen on any other model, may as well just mention the ECM has a very neat looking CV system by 240hrs, kinda similar to Earl last year in terms of timings, synoptics look the same...
100% recurver though thats for sure given its already fairly high lattiutde.
Never say for sure..Ike formed at 17.6 North and was supposed to curve out but instead trucked into the Gulf....so while the odds says recurve, there is always that one that defies climatology

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I think it'd be a fairly safe bet given the east coast troughing redeveloping by 240hrs on that ECM run....


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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
- 'CaneFreak
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
Yep...and if you go over to NHC's Satellite page and click on the East Atlantic, that is the image that comes up



cycloneye wrote::uarrow: That pic is from March 14.
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- 'CaneFreak
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Re:
Based on 1 run of the Euro Almighty? HAHAHAHAHAHAHA...is that a forecast I take it?
Edit: If so, you are on...



Edit: If so, you are on...
KWT wrote:I think it'd be a fairly safe bet given the east coast troughing redeveloping by 240hrs on that ECM run....
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- 'CaneFreak
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Re:
From HPC: USED THE 00Z/16 ECENS MEAN TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND
PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. DO NOT HAVE MUCH FAITH IN ANY ONE
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE MODELS HAVE
SHOWN POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY.
In short, to say that it is a fairly safe bet that there will be east coast troughing redeveloping in 10 days based on one operational run is just ignoring the statistics. Sorry KWT...keep trying though
PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. DO NOT HAVE MUCH FAITH IN ANY ONE
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE MODELS HAVE
SHOWN POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY.
In short, to say that it is a fairly safe bet that there will be east coast troughing redeveloping in 10 days based on one operational run is just ignoring the statistics. Sorry KWT...keep trying though


KWT wrote:I think it'd be a fairly safe bet given the east coast troughing redeveloping by 240hrs on that ECM run....
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