EPAC: GREG - Tropical Depression

[clfenwi]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON AUG 15 2011

...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR
ANOTHER BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH
OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep992011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108151832
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 99, 2011, DB, O, 2011081518, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP992011
EP, 99, 2011081418, , BEST, 0, 105N, 895W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 99, 2011081500, , BEST, 0, 107N, 906W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 99, 2011081506, , BEST, 0, 109N, 918W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 99, 2011081512, , BEST, 0, 112N, 930W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 99, 2011081518, , BEST, 0, 114N, 941W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,

[cycloneye]

Up to 50%

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED AND SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...AND
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[clfenwi]

GFS and European models have both shown this developing by Thursday on their last two runs.

[cycloneye]

70%

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks ok.

[clfenwi]

Possibly on the verge of initiating advisories. 11 AM PDT TWO:

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE
FORMING ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH.

TCFA was issued ~ 2 hours ago.

WTPN21 PGTW 160200
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.5N 95.6W TO 15.4N 102.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 160000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.8N 96.1W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 170200Z.
//

[Extratropical94]

TD 7-E at 5pm EDT/2pm PDT.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep992011_ep072011.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108161832
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 07, 2011, DB, O, 2011081518, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 2, EP072011
EP, 07, 2011081418, , BEST, 0, 105N, 895W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 07, 2011081500, , BEST, 0, 107N, 906W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 07, 2011081506, , BEST, 0, 110N, 929W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 07, 2011081512, , BEST, 0, 116N, 939W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 07, 2011081518, , BEST, 0, 120N, 948W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 120, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 07, 2011081600, , BEST, 0, 125N, 958W, 25, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 180, 120, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 07, 2011081606, , BEST, 0, 129N, 969W, 25, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 180, 120, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 07, 2011081612, , BEST, 0, 131N, 978W, 25, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 180, 120, 35, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 07, 2011081618, , BEST, 0, 135N, 990W, 30, 1006, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 90, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[Yellow Evan]

Looking much better now.

[KWT]

Not at all surprising its been upgraded, looks very good, probably a future hurricane in the making IMO...

[Extratropical94]

Comparing this season to 2010, we might make a big jump in the number of days ahead soon.

Frank '10: August 22nd - Fernanda '11: August 16th --- 6 days ahead.
Georgette '10: September 21st - Possibly Greg '11: August 16th/17th --- 35/36 days ahead.

Of course this is nothing special since last year was probably the biggest piece of junk in the EPAC so far

[CrazyC83]

Of course, it seems anything that touches the EPAC and manages to develop turns to gold this year...

[Yellow Evan]

Comparing this season to 2010, we might make a big jump in the number of days ahead soon.

Frank '10: August 22nd - Fernanda '11: August 16th --- 6 days ahead.
Georgette '10: September 21st - Possibly Greg '11: August 16th/17th --- 35/36 days ahead.

Of course this is nothing special since last year was probably the biggest piece of junk in the EPAC so far

1977 PHS had way more junk. At least, 2010 had an off-season storm and a Cat 5. 2009 was up to "G" at this point. I believe + plus two CPHC's AOR storms. A good season to compare this to is 1998 or 2005 IMO.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072011
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 16 2011

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 99.6W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20
KM/H. AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE THE COAST OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT AND THEN A
HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF THE
MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA...GUERRERO...AND MICHOACAN DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG



TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072011
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 16 2011

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FOR THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO HAVE INCREASED TO T2.0 FROM TAFB
AND SAB. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DIAGNOSES ABOUT 15 KT OF EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE EAST OF A LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP
CONVECTION. THERE IS ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER
AT THIS POINT TO CLASSIFY THE SYSTEM AS A 30-KT DEPRESSION.

STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
DEPRESSION FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND SHOULD RESULT
IN UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION.
ALSO...THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED OVER SOME OF THE WARMEST WATERS OF
THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND THESE WATERS SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
WARM FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 4 DAYS. THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE RATES OF INTENSIFICATION AS SHOWN IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...WITH THE SHIPS MODEL BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. SINCE
THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS ICON...BUT NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS THE SHIPS
MODEL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11 WITH THE DEPRESSION BEING STEERED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THIS
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...AND
DURING THAT TIME THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE A BIT.
THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN WITH A BREAK
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 120W AND 135W BY DAY 5. AT THAT POINT...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 13.8N 99.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 14.6N 101.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 15.6N 104.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 16.4N 107.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 17.0N 110.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 18.0N 114.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 19.0N 116.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 21/1800Z 20.0N 118.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[CrazyC83]

I'm thinking this will ultimately become a major hurricane.

[RL3AO]

I'm thinking this will ultimately become a major hurricane.

Models aren't too strong on it, but this part of the Epac has put out a few majors already so I'd side with you.

[KWT]

Yeah, the models have been a little on the weak side as well with these EPAC systems this season so far, so a major isn't out of the question by any means...

[Yellow Evan]

MH seems likely IMO.

[Fyzn94]

No Greg yet.

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 100.8W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072011
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 16 2011

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE
SINCE THIS AFTERNOON. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB
REMAIN UNCHANGED...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT.
THE DEPRESSION WILL BE TRAVERSING SOME OF THE WARMEST WATERS IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. DURING THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE SYSTEM ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE FORECAST STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE IN 2-3 DAYS FROM THE
VARIOUS INTENSITY MODELS. THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS ARE HIGHER
THAN THE LGEM AND HWRF...AND SHOW THE DEPRESSION BECOMING A
HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS...THE NHC FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE HIGHER SHIPS/GFDL
GUIDANCE...BUT REMAINS SOMEWHAT MORE CONSERVATIVE.

THE CENTER HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN CONVENTIONAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY...HOWEVER A TIMELY 0003 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION...AND A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. THE
INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 295/12. A STRONG MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP IT MOVING ON
A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN BY DAYS 4 AND
5...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 3-4 DAYS...WITH SOME
DIVERGENCE THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SOUTH OF THE TVCE
MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS.
THE NEW TRACK IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE
SLIGHT NORTHWARD RELOCATION OF THE CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 15.0N 100.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 15.6N 102.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 16.4N 105.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 17.1N 108.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 17.8N 111.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 18.9N 115.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 21/0000Z 19.8N 117.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 22/0000Z 20.5N 119.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Chacor]

EP, 07, 2011081706, , BEST, 0, 155N, 1015W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 30, 1008, 150, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SEVEN, M,