ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Dave,the remark at TCPOD of SE of Bermuda mission canceled is correct?

Yes the TCPOD SE of Bermuda is cancelled. Double checked with Hurakan on it also.

Cycloneye, in contact with Brent and he agree's the mission SE of Bermuda that was cancelled must have been the one scheduled for today into 93L. Nothing in on hdobs yet. Unless something happens soon....see ya later today or tomorrow.

Yeah,I think it was canceled,although they have not corrected the remark at TCPOD.

[Dave]

Dave,the remark at TCPOD of SE of Bermuda mission canceled is correct?

Yes the TCPOD SE of Bermuda is cancelled. Double checked with Hurakan on it also.

Cycloneye, in contact with Brent and he agree's the mission SE of Bermuda that was cancelled must have been the one scheduled for today into 93L. Nothing in on hdobs yet. Unless something happens soon....see ya later today or tomorrow.

Yeah,I think it was canceled,although they have not corrected the remark at TCPOD.

Still holding with #47 from the other day on hdobs so I'm going back to work. Will clear tomorrow afternoon on work in case a mission happens then. I work early & late if it does...that's how I can get time off in here.

[HouTXmetro]

How long does it take for the Summer Death Ridges to weaken permanently? Are we looking at Protection even into Late September?

[SouthDadeFish]

Pressure at this buoy is starting to fall:

5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.88 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.03 in ( Falling )

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42059

[ROCK]

How long does it take for the Summer Death Ridges to weaken permanently? Are we looking at Protection even into Late September?

no it will weaken and even move west....give it another week...

[SouthDadeFish]

You can also see a stronger wind shift on visible imagery today. A well defined southerly inflow channel to the east of the circulation can be seen.

[NDG]

Perhaps a better vorticity trying to get going near 15N & 68.5W, at least a more defined trough than yesterday.

[ROCK]

needs to slow down....20mph is too fast...

[SouthDadeFish]

Pretty strong 850 mb vorticity. A lot of turning going on down there.



700 and 500mb levels aren't that bad either.

http://www.canefever.com/#!at-a-glance/vstc1=vorticity

[Gustywind]

needs to slow down....20mph is too fast...

Maybe lacking of brakes since it debuts but hopefully has spared for the moment most the Lesser Antilles except for the heavy downpours continuing to fall strongly in Guadeloupe!

[SouthDadeFish]

18Z Update:

AL, 93, 2011081618, , BEST, 0, 141N, 674W, 25, 1011, DB,

Pressure went up 1 mb....

[Gustywind]

Hey Cycloneye, looks like heavy convection is moving towards you. Be aware safe and dry.
Gustywind

[Gustywind]

Another close up IR... not much change as most of the Leewards are dealing with these huge patches of juicy convection

[KWT]

Not classic but I think it is getting a touch better organised. Still a long way to go but I do think the W.Caribbean is the real zone to watch, think we will get ANOTHER weak TS out of it!

[Gustywind]

And the damages have already began numerous floodings have been reported in the island. A car have been on its roof.

[KWT]

Gustywind, seems to me like flooding has been somewhat worse this year then normal from the sounds of things?

[cycloneye]

Aric,the floater is up.

[SouthDadeFish]

Latest buoy update:

Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.85 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.05 in ( Falling )

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42059

Also from that buoy: The wind has gone from ENE, to E, to ESE as the "center" has passed by it to the S. If there was a LLC down there this is the wind shift you would expect to see. Not saying there is a LLC, but it seems to be trying to get its act together.

I'm aware that diurnal cycles will lower the pressure at this time of day, but let's see if the pressure continues to drop beyond normal diurnal cycles.

[cycloneye]

Excerpt from San Juan NWS discussion related to strong gusts in PR and VI.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
BROUGHT SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE LOCAL AREA. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS WERE OBSERVED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT AS THIS
TROPICAL WAVE PASSES. STRONG WIND GUSTS OF OVER 40 KNOTS WERE
OBSERVED IN SAINT CROIX AND LA PARGUERA WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

[GCANE]

You all tell me.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=1kmsrvis&storm_identifier=AL932011&starting_image=2011AL93_1KMSRVIS_201108161215.GIF