ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1041 Postby **NDG** » Wed Aug 17, 2011 7:07 am

Very apparent circulation above the surface now this morning, is very close to making it to the ground.

#1042 Postby **ozonepete** » Wed Aug 17, 2011 7:10 am

HURAKAN wrote:

Keep an eye on this buoy.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058

Thanks, Sandy. Forgot there was a buoy there and the center will pass very close to it. Let's see if winds go south as it passes.

#1043 Postby **ozonepete** » Wed Aug 17, 2011 7:17 am

Looks like it could get pulled just a tad north of due west as it nears the tail of the trough over western Cuba. That interaction should also finally slow it down tonight or tomorrow.

#1044 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 17, 2011 7:20 am

The question is,will recon go this afternoon? I say they will wait until tommorow to have more consolidation and have more surface observations in the area that a closed LLC is present.

#1045 Postby **ozonepete** » Wed Aug 17, 2011 7:22 am

cycloneye wrote:The question is,will recon go this afternoon? I say they will wait until tommorow to have more consolidation and have more surface observations in the area that a closed LLC is present.

Good question. Maybe the buoy data will influence their decision too?

#1046 Postby **tolakram** » Wed Aug 17, 2011 7:23 am

Might have an LLC?

LIVE LOOP: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

Look below 15 on the grid.

#1047 Postby **ozonepete** » Wed Aug 17, 2011 7:24 am

tolakram wrote:Might have an LLC?

LIVE LOOP: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

Look below 15 on the grid.

Yeah, Mark. It's starting to look that way to some of us.

#1048 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 17, 2011 7:33 am

12z Best Track

AL, 93, 2011081712, , BEST, 0, 149N, 733W, 25, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

#1049 Postby **ozonepete** » Wed Aug 17, 2011 7:41 am

cycloneye wrote:12z Best Track

AL, 93, 2011081712, , BEST, 0, 149N, 733W, 25, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

Wow. But makes sense. Convection building, strong MLC, likely LLC there or almost there. I think RECON will go because of this plus especially it's moving so fast and could be a problem for Honduras, Nicaragua if it really starts cranking up.

Aric Dunn · #1050 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Aug 17, 2011 7:48 am

I have the center developing near 16.68° N 73.94° W

#1051 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 17, 2011 7:50 am

SSD Dvorak numbers go up.

17/1145 UTC 15.0N 72.7W T1.5/1.5 93L -- Atlantic

Aric Dunn · #1052 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Aug 17, 2011 7:52 am

Aric Dunn wrote:I have the center developing near 16.68° N 73.94° W

sorry not 16.68... typo ... 14.6N

#1053 Postby **ozonepete** » Wed Aug 17, 2011 7:56 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:I have the center developing near 16.68° N 73.94° W

sorry not 16.68... typo ... 14.6N

LOL, I was going blind trying to see that!

I got 15.2N 73.4W. I guess we're all on the same page.

#1054 Postby **NDG** » Wed Aug 17, 2011 8:00 am

Because 93L is still moving at a good clip is hard to see evidence of a west wind on the vis sat loop, too bad that it is tracking just south of the buoy.

Aric Dunn · #1055 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Aug 17, 2011 8:04 am

NDG wrote:Because 93L is still moving at a good clip is hard to see evidence of a west wind on the vis sat loop, too bad that it is tracking just south of the buoy.

yeah, if its not there now its getting pretty close. with this new convection building the way it is... I imagine later today we should see it become better organized.

#1056 Postby **ozonepete** » Wed Aug 17, 2011 8:06 am

NDG wrote:Because 93L is still moving at a good clip is hard to see evidence of a west wind on the vis sat loop, too bad that it is tracking just south of the buoy.

Yeah, that is too bad. But it could show some southwest winds after passage.

#1057 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 17, 2011 8:10 am

Slowly getting the look.

#1058 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Wed Aug 17, 2011 8:48 am

Looks much better organized than yesterday. Hard to tell for sure if there are west winds, but I really hope recon flies out there today. Especially with it getting classified as T 1.5.

#1059 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Wed Aug 17, 2011 8:56 am

Center estimate as of 1315Z:

AHS2011 · #1060 Postby **AHS2011** » Wed Aug 17, 2011 9:00 am

This may be one of the healthiest looking systems I have seen so far of this season. Anyone else agree?

ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

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