Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic -(Now Invest 97L)

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cycloneye
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Re: Pouch P17L WSW of CV Islands

#281 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 17, 2011 7:10 am

From 8 AM TWD:

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRES GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TODAY N OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 70W AT 00Z AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SW N
ATLC. THE 0134 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS STRONG NE WINDS N OF 15N TO
HISPANIOLA AHEAD OF THE WAVE. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A
SLOWER TRACK TO THIS SYSTEM AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND IT HAS INCREASED POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST
THINKING LEANS TOWARD THE 12Z/16 ECMWF WHICH WAS STRONGER WITH
THE SYSTEM THAN THE 00Z GFS...SHOWING A CLOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY THU EVENING.
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY SUN. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONVECTION
NEAR THIS WAVE...WHICH WAS NEAR 30W AT 00Z...WILL WILL STICK
WITH THE A WEAKER FORECAST THAN THE 00Z GFS WHICH DEVELOPS A
1005 MB TROPICAL STORM OUT OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF
BY SUN NIGHT. IT IS A LITTLE WORRISOME THAT THE 00Z UKMET IS
NEARLY AS STRONG AT THAT TIME AND CLOSES THE LOW OFF FASTER THAN
THE GFS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS
FORECAST.

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Re:

#282 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Aug 17, 2011 7:12 am

Vortex wrote:H216 6Z Hurricane on SE coast of FL....


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal216.gif


i believe the ridge is underdone, anglins pier lives to fight another day, system slides south of the peninsula regardless of strength
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Re: Re:

#283 Postby CourierPR » Wed Aug 17, 2011 7:20 am

jlauderdal wrote:
Vortex wrote:H216 6Z Hurricane on SE coast of FL....


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal216.gif


i believe the ridge is underdone, anglins pier lives to fight another day, system slides south of the peninsula regardless of strength


Is that a belief or more of a prayer? :crying:
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Re: Pouch P17L WSW of CV Islands

#284 Postby wxman57 » Wed Aug 17, 2011 7:22 am

cycloneye wrote:From 8 AM TWD:.
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY SUN. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONVECTION
NEAR THIS WAVE...WHICH WAS NEAR 30W AT 00Z...WILL WILL STICK
WITH THE A WEAKER FORECAST THAN THE 00Z GFS WHICH DEVELOPS A
1005 MB TROPICAL STORM OUT OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF
BY SUN NIGHT. IT IS A LITTLE WORRISOME THAT THE 00Z UKMET IS
NEARLY AS STRONG AT THAT TIME AND CLOSES THE LOW OFF FASTER THAN
THE GFS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS
FORECAST.


Clearly a typo above, should read "over the eastern Caribbean by Sunday night", not the eastern Gulf. Models have consistently tried to develop systems too far east, thus the predicted recurvature toward the southeast U.S. or out to sea on systems like 93L early on. With no convection, this disturbance is a long ways from developing. It may follow a path similar to 93L and stay south of the current model tracks. Could even move into southern Mexico after crossing the Caribbean unless that ridge over the Gulf breaks down in 10 days or so.
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Re: Re:

#285 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Aug 17, 2011 7:38 am

CourierPR wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
Vortex wrote:H216 6Z Hurricane on SE coast of FL....


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal216.gif


i believe the ridge is underdone, anglins pier lives to fight another day, system slides south of the peninsula regardless of strength


Is that a belief or more of a prayer? :crying:


belief, last time i checked prayer never influenced the weather but lets not get into that debate...that is a monster ridge as noted by wxman57 last night, models tend to understate the strength of these monster ridges, we are still way out in time
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#286 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 17, 2011 7:40 am

I see the model consistency has continued with both the GFS and Euro. very little change at all
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Re: Pouch P17L WSW of CV Islands

#287 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 17, 2011 8:27 am

:uarrow: Let' not cross the line to other subjects not related to the topic on hand,thanks for your cooperation.
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Re: Pouch P17L WSW of CV Islands

#288 Postby CourierPR » Wed Aug 17, 2011 8:44 am

Bastardi tweets that the GFS is converging on his ideas that the system is headed for Florida and the Southeast.
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Re: Pouch P17L WSW of CV Islands

#289 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 17, 2011 8:57 am

There comes the big wheel.

Image
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Re: Pouch P17L WSW of CV Islands

#290 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 17, 2011 9:06 am

Here's a loop which shows how large the circulation is with this thing.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/rtwx/ewall/SAT_TROPATLEAST/anim8vis.html
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Re: Pouch P17L WSW of CV Islands

#291 Postby Vortex » Wed Aug 17, 2011 9:10 am

Classic CV look...Large envelope, rather large storm looks to be a good bet...Im sure NHC is model watching closely and given the consistancy of the GFS and others, I'd imagine tentative plans are being discussed with regards to recon, etc...I think well have an invest by Tomorrow...
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Re: Pouch P17L WSW of CV Islands

#292 Postby CourierPR » Wed Aug 17, 2011 9:10 am

SFLcane wrote:Here's a loop which shows how large the circulation is with this thing.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/rtwx/ewall/SAT_TROPATLEAST/anim8vis.html



It's really huge. When it starts to develop more convection, this thing may cause a lot of trouble.
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Re: Pouch P17L WSW of CV Islands

#293 Postby Bluefrog » Wed Aug 17, 2011 9:12 am

ohhh wow .... great loop ... you can clearly see the overall picture .... :roll:
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Re: Pouch P17L WSW of CV Islands

#294 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 17, 2011 9:13 am

Vortex wrote:Classic CV look...Large envelope, rather large storm looks to be a good bet...Im sure NHC is model watching closely and given the consistancy of the GFS and others, I'd imagine tentative plans are being discussed with regards to recon, etc...I think well have an invest by Tomorrow...


will have an invest as soon as there is convection.
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Re: Pouch P17L WSW of CV Islands

#295 Postby Vortex » Wed Aug 17, 2011 9:13 am

SFLcane wrote:Here's a loop which shows how large the circulation is with this thing.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/rtwx/ewall/SAT_TROPATLEAST/anim8vis.html




Great loop....this is certainly one in the making...
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#296 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 17, 2011 9:19 am

Which by the way I am seeing an increase in some convection today.... first ever with it.. lol

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rgb.html
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#297 Postby Vortex » Wed Aug 17, 2011 9:21 am

Thats one massive ridge to the N...may even head a bit w/wsw over the next few days...270-275 heading looks reasonable over the next 2-3 days
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Re:

#298 Postby Vortex » Wed Aug 17, 2011 9:23 am

Aric Dunn wrote:Which by the way I am seeing an increase in some convection today.... first ever with it.. lol

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rgb.html



noticed that as well aric...
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#299 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 17, 2011 9:26 am

This looks like it is going to be a player and will be watching it.

Moisture is surging up from the ITCZ which should help build convection
despite the dry air I see at the mid and upper-levels.
Last edited by gatorcane on Wed Aug 17, 2011 9:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#300 Postby Vortex » Wed Aug 17, 2011 9:28 am

Strength of Ridging late next week is going to become very important I suspect...


NWS Miami:

LOOKING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL FINALLY
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TO
BUILD BACK TO THE NORTH AND THIS WILL REPLACE S FL IN A DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW
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