Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic -(Now Invest 97L)

[cycloneye]

This is the 06z HWRF run for 93L,but look what it has south of Puerto Rico.

[ConvergenceZone]

So WXMAN thinks this MIGHT head to Mexico?...Wow...I didn't see that coming. I thought for sure
this would pose a USA threat if it develops.

[Portastorm]

So WXMAN thinks this MIGHT head to Mexico?...Wow...I didn't see that coming. I thought for sure
this would pose a USA threat if it develops.

I believe he used the words "may" and "could." He's much too smart to be trying to peg a system this far out (both in time and distance).

[ConvergenceZone]

So WXMAN thinks this MIGHT head to Mexico?...Wow...I didn't see that coming. I thought for sure
this would pose a USA threat if it develops.

I believe he used the words "may" and "could." He's much too smart to be trying to peg a system this far out (both in time and distance).

That's why I capitalized the word "MIGHT"

[Vortex]

This is the 06z HWRF run for 93L,but look what it has south of Puerto Rico.

Im sure once we go to invest youll be the first to let us know

[cycloneye]

Here is this morning's synopsis by the predict team of Pouch P17L.


SYNOPSIS 2011081700

P17L
14N, 29W
700 hPa


ECMWF: Large, easily-tracked pouch. Steady intensity for three days, followed by intensification.

GFS: Consistent story: Weak pouch that gradually intensifies after three days. GFS continues to depict a secondary, temporary ITCZ pouch in the wake of P17L around Day 1.

UKMET: Large, distinct pouch that gradually intensifies after a couple days.

NOGAPS: OUTLIER! Immediately after the analysis, NOGAPS depicts two large OW maxima. For the first couple of days, the a pouch is depicted with the eastern, slower OW max. However, then two separate pouches are depicted. Due to the uncertainty as to which pouch I should track, I only assigned an analysis position.

HWRF-GEN: Smooth, generally westward track. Steady intensity for two days, followed by intensification.


ECMWF -9.0 v700 120h
GFS -9.4 v700 & RH/TPW 120h
UKMET -9.0 v700 & RH 120h
NOGAPS -7.5 v700 & RH 0h
HWGEN -8.9 v700 & RH 120h

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/P17L.html

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/synops ... 081700.txt

[Vortex]

Looking at all the available 00z guidance in the longer range it certainly stands to reason that any significant recurature would likely take place between 80-85 W...

[Blown Away]

IMO, I see convection building with nice rotation, if this persists I bet we see an Invest tag today. Looks like any developing LLC will be above 14N, so a developing system might be more prone to being tugged on a WNW path near the islands.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[Vortex]

I'd imagine Bastardi is about to enter full throttle mode...

[Aric Dunn]

IMO, I see convection building with nice rotation, if this persists I bet we see an Invest tag today. Looks like any developing LLC will be above 14N, so a developing system might be more prone to being tugged on a WNW path near the islands.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

for sure the most convection its ever had accept over africa.. lol

[Vortex]

Vis over the last 2-3 days...evolving nicely.





http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/flash-vis.html

[ConvergenceZone]

The fact that this isn't developing quicker doesn't bode well for the USA at all..
For those who want recurvature, better hope for rapid development, and soon....

[Vortex]

12Z NAM just coming into range at H+84


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

[SFLcane]

Here's another loop showing the large impressive circulation that for the time being keeps ingesting saharan dust to it north.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640_meteosat.asp?product=tropical_met_4km_visir2_floater

[Blown Away]

Ok, I'm making the call, we have some persistent convection, rotation, and big moisture envelope, it's time to Invest tag this area.

[cycloneye]

Ok, I'm making the call, we have some persistent convection, rotation, and big moisture envelope, it's time to Invest tag this area.

Bold ah! I will let you and the rest know when.

[Vortex]

12Z GFS about to roll...

[SFLcane]

Experimental FIM also developes it approaching SFL.

[SFLcane]

Convection appears to be on the increase today.

[Aric Dunn]

I Imagine the NHC will say something at 2pm or 8pm... invest will likely come tomorrow unless some more convection develops today
wish SSD would put a floater over it...