ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[MGC]

Healthy MLC...just don't know about a surface circulation. Sure is making a bee line though....MGC

[xironman]

Looks much better organized than yesterday. Hard to tell for sure if there are west winds, but I really hope recon flies out there today. Especially with it getting classified as T 1.5.

I have a feeling that they will go, it may not be much yet. But I would think they would want to have a good sampling of the environment.

[HurrMark]

It is definitely on its way...its lack of an inner core may make it difficult for it to ramp up (kind of like Isidore after it got stuck on the Yuc in 2002)...also if it doesn't gain latitude it won't have much time to develop (it has only about 700 miles left instead of maybe 1,100 or so if it stays north of CA)

[GCANE]

I really don't see cloud tops that are cooling or increasing rain rate.

This may run out of time before crashing into CA.

[Portastorm]

Yeah, I don't see how this one is going to gain much (if any) latitude.



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[SouthDadeFish]

This one is for you GCANE:



Not that well organized I guess.

[TheBurn]

Definitely looks to be getting its act together:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rgb.html

[xironman]

I really don't see cloud tops that are cooling or increasing rain rate.

This may run out of time before crashing into CA.

I see what you mean, but yesterday the convection was all to the north of the MLC, today its wrapping possibilities seem better.

[underthwx]

Does anyone foresee 93Ls forward motion slowing in the near future?

[GCANE]

This one is for you GCANE:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 0_SWHR.GIF

Not that well organized I guess.

Thanks!

Latest SCAT not showing anything on the surface.

[wxman57]

Does anyone foresee 93Ls forward motion slowing in the near future?

Yes, as it nears NE Honduras. That's when it should become a TS (Friday).

[GCANE]

I really don't see cloud tops that are cooling or increasing rain rate.

This may run out of time before crashing into CA.

I see what you mean, but yesterday the convection was all to the north of the MLC, today its wrapping possibilities seem better.

I am wondering if there may be some afternoon convection fire off from Jamaica and Haiti.

That could give it a shot in the arm overnight in order to work into 93L's core and get deeper convection going.

[cycloneye]

Plane departs towards 93L

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
URNT15 KNHC 171526
AF300 01FFA INVEST HDOB 02 20110817
151700 1742N 06448W 0149 ///// 0124 +299 +245 360000 000 /// /// 23
151730 1742N 06449W 0146 ///// 0121 +299 +245 360000 000 /// /// 23
151800 1742N 06449W 0142 ///// 0118 +299 +247 360000 000 /// /// 23
151830 1742N 06449W 0141 ///// 0115 +300 +245 360000 000 /// /// 23
151900 1742N 06449W 0141 ///// 0115 +320 +243 360000 000 /// /// 23
151930 1742N 06449W 0136 ///// 0113 +303 +247 121003 010 /// /// 23
152000 1742N 06448W 0104 00011 0117 +277 +243 107014 018 /// /// 03
152030 1742N 06447W 9855 00253 0139 +253 +235 100017 020 /// /// 03
152100 1742N 06445W 9473 00605 0149 +226 +222 091022 023 /// /// 03
152130 1742N 06444W 9143 00930 0166 +206 +196 092022 023 /// /// 03
152200 1742N 06442W 8857 01202 0171 +192 +165 094023 023 /// /// 03
152230 1742N 06441W 8434 01626 0164 +171 +142 096022 023 /// /// 03
152300 1742N 06439W 8153 01917 0168 +155 +116 097021 022 /// /// 03
152330 1742N 06438W 7880 02208 0168 +144 +073 099022 022 /// /// 03
152400 1742N 06436W 7606 02505 0162 +128 +043 103021 021 /// /// 03
152430 1741N 06435W 7370 02775 0171 +110 +044 109019 019 /// /// 03
152500 1740N 06435W 7193 02977 0170 +097 +049 105018 019 /// /// 03
152530 1739N 06437W 7023 03174 0163 +090 +017 103020 021 /// /// 03
152600 1738N 06439W 6841 03397 0164 +081 +001 100019 021 /// /// 03
152630 1737N 06441W 6529 03782 0166 +059 -013 100018 019 /// /// 03
$$

[cycloneye]

We got Recon!!!

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 171536
AF300 01FFA INVEST HDOB 03 20110817
152700 1737N 06443W 6350 04012 0172 +041 -006 102017 018 /// /// 03
152730 1736N 06445W 6167 04251 0172 +026 -015 100018 020 /// /// 03
152800 1735N 06446W 6005 04464 0166 +007 -009 101021 022 /// /// 03
152830 1734N 06448W 5859 04643 0154 -003 -029 100019 019 /// /// 03
152900 1733N 06450W 5694 04868 0156 -018 -024 104017 018 /// /// 03
152930 1733N 06452W 5557 05078 0170 -032 //// 107017 017 /// /// 05
153000 1732N 06454W 5420 05280 0304 -039 //// 100017 018 /// /// 05
153030 1732N 06456W 5293 05467 0316 -047 //// 099020 021 /// /// 05
153100 1731N 06458W 5181 05641 0326 -058 //// 099020 020 /// /// 05
153130 1731N 06500W 5076 05802 0335 -070 //// 115019 021 /// /// 05
153200 1730N 06502W 4985 05934 0343 -077 //// 106020 020 /// /// 05
153230 1730N 06504W 4865 06132 0354 -089 //// 103021 022 /// /// 05
153300 1729N 06507W 4779 06265 0361 -095 //// 088020 021 /// /// 05
153330 1729N 06509W 4688 06418 0370 -097 //// 077019 019 /// /// 05
153400 1728N 06511W 4652 06470 0369 -102 //// 086017 018 /// /// 05
153430 1728N 06513W 4652 06468 0366 -102 //// 093015 016 /// /// 05
153500 1727N 06516W 4658 06458 0364 -107 //// 088016 017 /// /// 05
153530 1726N 06519W 4495 06715 0372 -117 //// 088010 014 /// /// 05
153600 1726N 06521W 4326 07016 0389 -130 //// 077009 010 /// /// 05
153630 1725N 06523W 4260 07134 0398 -137 //// 104010 010 /// /// 05
$$

Who wants to continue the posting?

[cycloneye]

Who wants to continue the posting of the data?

[Extratropical94]

Observation 04:

000
URNT15 KNHC 171546
AF300 01FFA INVEST HDOB 04 20110817
153700 1725N 06525W 4176 07287 0409 -148 //// 115008 009 /// /// 05
153730 1724N 06527W 4120 07389 0416 -153 //// 067006 008 /// /// 05
153800 1724N 06529W 4080 07463 0420 -157 //// 066008 008 /// /// 05
153830 1723N 06532W 4028 07560 0427 -163 //// 097005 008 /// /// 05
153900 1723N 06534W 3970 07670 0433 -167 //// 112005 005 /// /// 05
153930 1722N 06536W 3936 07734 0436 -173 //// 105005 005 /// /// 05
154000 1721N 06538W 3923 07755 0436 -170 //// 115005 005 /// /// 05
154030 1721N 06540W 3926 07747 0433 -169 //// 114004 004 /// /// 05
154100 1720N 06543W 3926 07746 0430 -168 //// 116005 005 /// /// 05
154130 1720N 06545W 3926 07743 0430 -165 //// 124004 004 /// /// 05
154200 1719N 06548W 3927 07742 0429 -169 //// 142005 005 /// /// 05
154230 1718N 06551W 3927 07742 0428 -170 //// 130006 006 /// /// 05
154300 1718N 06553W 3927 07740 0428 -166 //// 126006 006 /// /// 05
154330 1717N 06556W 3927 07746 0429 -165 //// 118006 006 /// /// 05
154400 1716N 06559W 3927 07742 0428 -165 //// 108006 006 /// /// 05
154430 1716N 06601W 3926 07743 0428 -172 //// 091005 006 /// /// 05
154500 1715N 06604W 3927 07742 0427 -180 //// 069007 008 /// /// 05
154530 1714N 06607W 3926 07747 0428 -180 //// 077007 008 /// /// 05
154600 1714N 06609W 3927 07744 0429 -180 //// 085007 007 /// /// 05
154630 1713N 06612W 3929 07740 0428 -180 //// 090007 007 /// /// 05
$$

[clfenwi]

Probably looking at ~2 hours before the plane is on station. Not much north-south flying to get to the invest,of course, but with the way the system has been booking it, a fair amount of westward flying to do.

[Extratropical94]

Observation 05:

000
URNT15 KNHC 171556
AF300 01FFA INVEST HDOB 05 20110817
154700 1712N 06615W 3929 07735 0430 -180 //// 094006 007 /// /// 05
154730 1711N 06618W 3928 07737 0428 -180 //// 089006 006 /// /// 05
154800 1711N 06621W 3929 07742 0429 -179 //// 090006 007 /// /// 05
154830 1710N 06623W 3929 07739 0430 -175 //// 094006 006 /// /// 05
154900 1709N 06626W 3929 07739 0429 -175 //// 100006 007 /// /// 05
154930 1709N 06629W 3926 07746 0429 -175 //// 113006 006 /// /// 05
155000 1708N 06632W 3927 07742 0430 -175 //// 116006 007 /// /// 05
155030 1707N 06634W 3927 07745 0428 -175 //// 129006 007 /// /// 05
155100 1706N 06637W 3929 07740 0429 -175 //// 132004 005 /// /// 05
155130 1706N 06640W 3927 07746 0429 -178 //// 161003 004 /// /// 05
155200 1705N 06642W 3929 07734 0429 -178 //// 189003 003 /// /// 05
155230 1704N 06645W 3929 07746 0430 -175 //// 190002 003 /// /// 05
155300 1704N 06648W 3927 07742 0430 -175 //// 158001 001 /// /// 05
155330 1703N 06650W 3927 07744 0430 -175 //// 206001 002 /// /// 05
155400 1702N 06653W 3929 07740 0430 -175 //// 174002 003 /// /// 05
155430 1702N 06656W 3927 07741 0429 -176 //// 164003 003 /// /// 05
155500 1701N 06658W 3927 07742 0430 -176 //// 178003 003 /// /// 05
155530 1700N 06701W 3929 07736 0430 -175 //// 161003 003 /// /// 05
155600 1700N 06704W 3927 07743 0431 -175 //// 125003 003 /// /// 05
155630 1659N 06706W 3927 07744 0429 -175 //// 120002 002 /// /// 05
$$

[cycloneye]

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT WED 17 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-078

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 18/1800Z
B. AFXXX 02FFA INVEST
C. 18/1430Z
D. 15.0N 80.0W
E. 18/1730Z TO 18/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73
A. 19/1200Z,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0308A CYCLONE
C. 19/0800Z
D. 15.0N 82.50W
E. 19/1130Z TO 19/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.