Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic -(Now Invest 97L)

[Vortex]

12Z GFS H+36

Closed and westbound...very strong ridging to the North



http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal036.gif

[cycloneye]

From todays TCPOD,Recon for this system on Saturday afternoon

ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST AT
20/1800Z NEAR 15.0N 56.0W.

[Aric Dunn]

12Z GFS H+36

Closed and westbound...very strong ridging to the North



http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal036.gif

yeah so far at 42 hrs its basically the same as 6z

[wxman57]

So WXMAN thinks this MIGHT head to Mexico?...Wow...I didn't see that coming. I thought for sure
this would pose a USA threat if it develops.

I believe he used the words "may" and "could." He's much too smart to be trying to peg a system this far out (both in time and distance).

Just consider that when 93L was by Africa, the GFS in particular had it striking everywhere from the TX coast to the Carolinas to passing west of Bermuda as a hurricane. If the models are wrong about this disturbance developing by the time it reaches the Caribbean, then they'll likely be wrong as far as the turn to the WNW or NW. It may just continue moving westward through the central Caribbean as an open wave until it finds a more favorable environment for development.

[Aric Dunn]

So WXMAN thinks this MIGHT head to Mexico?...Wow...I didn't see that coming. I thought for sure
this would pose a USA threat if it develops.

I believe he used the words "may" and "could." He's much too smart to be trying to peg a system this far out (both in time and distance).

Just consider that when 93L was by Africa, the GFS in particular had it striking everywhere from the TX coast to the Carolinas to passing west of Bermuda as a hurricane. If the models are wrong about this disturbance developing by the time it reaches the Caribbean, then they'll likely be wrong as far as the turn to the WNW or NW. It may just continue moving westward through the central Caribbean as an open wave until it finds a more favorable environment for development.

very true. but the continued consistent runs with this system is a huge difference from 93L. the flag was flapping with 93L but this one we probably have one of the most consistent run to run consensus i have seen in a long time. but both the GFS and euro even with a weak system or strong hurricane have all fallen within a remarkably small statistically small "cone" or track. or in other words the run to run synoptic set up continues to show a very strong ridge holding to about 70 W and a weakness over the SE due to the persistent trough. from the looks of it the only way its going to be a carrib runner if it does not develop at all and gets stuck in the low level flow. The models that even develop it a little ( minimal TS ) all start a wnw motion as it approaches the islands. We will just have to wait and see if it develops before the islands.

[Ivanhater]

Last nine GFS runs have shown a U.S hit

GFS Runs:

06Z Mon: up U.S. East coast
12Z Mon: central LA 8/30
18Z Mon: skirts FL east coast to Charleston 8/27-8
00Z Tue: Tampa 8/27
06Z Tue: Pensacola 8/28
12Z Tue: S tip FL 8/26 to MS 8/28
18Z Tue: skirts FL east coast to Beaufort, SC 8/27-8
00Z Wed: FL Keys 8/26 to Apalachicola 8/27
06Z Wed: Ft. Lauderdale 8/26

Thanks Larrywx for the list.

[Vortex]

H+78 approximately 14/53 west and beginning to intensify...50W appears to be the magic number...



http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal078.gif

[Aric Dunn]

Last nine GFS runs have shown a U.S hit

GFS Runs:

06Z Mon: up U.S. East coast
12Z Mon: central LA 8/30
18Z Mon: skirts FL east coast to Charleston 8/27-8
00Z Tue: Tampa 8/27
06Z Tue: Pensacola 8/28
12Z Tue: S tip FL 8/26 to MS 8/28
18Z Tue: skirts FL east coast to Beaufort, SC 8/27-8
00Z Wed: FL Keys 8/26 to Apalachicola 8/27
06Z Wed: Ft. Lauderdale 8/26

Thanks Larrywx for the list.

yes thank you.. I was about to start looking it up ..
I could have sworn the sunday runs also show US ?

[caneseddy]

Last nine GFS runs have shown a U.S hit

GFS Runs:

06Z Mon: up U.S. East coast
12Z Mon: central LA 8/30
18Z Mon: skirts FL east coast to Charleston 8/27-8
00Z Tue: Tampa 8/27
06Z Tue: Pensacola 8/28
12Z Tue: S tip FL 8/26 to MS 8/28
18Z Tue: skirts FL east coast to Beaufort, SC 8/27-8
00Z Wed: FL Keys 8/26 to Apalachicola 8/27
06Z Wed: Ft. Lauderdale 8/26

Thanks Larrywx for the list.

yes thank you.. I was about to start looking it up ..

Very true, but remember that last year the GFS had about 15 straight runs of a hurricane (Richard) hitting between Tampa and the SW Coast of Florida and nothing came of it in the end

[caneseddy]

GFS +90 entering the Caribbean and strengthening

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal090.gif

[Aric Dunn]

Last nine GFS runs have shown a U.S hit

GFS Runs:

06Z Mon: up U.S. East coast
12Z Mon: central LA 8/30
18Z Mon: skirts FL east coast to Charleston 8/27-8
00Z Tue: Tampa 8/27
06Z Tue: Pensacola 8/28
12Z Tue: S tip FL 8/26 to MS 8/28
18Z Tue: skirts FL east coast to Beaufort, SC 8/27-8
00Z Wed: FL Keys 8/26 to Apalachicola 8/27
06Z Wed: Ft. Lauderdale 8/26

Thanks Larrywx for the list.

yes thank you.. I was about to start looking it up ..

Very true, but remember that last year the GFS had about 15 straight runs of a hurricane hitting between Tampa and the SW Coast of Florida and nothing came of it in the end

I remember something like that.. but none of the other models were ever really on board with it... just the GFS being the GFS. this system has multiple models show nearly identical scenarios. I guess only time will tell.

[Vortex]

H+102 Ramping up SE of PR



http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal102.gif

[cycloneye]

Convection trying to fight the dry air.

[Aric Dunn]

H+102 Ramping up SE of PR



http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal102.gif

114hrs is nearly identical so far with the 6z

[SFLcane]

Thought i'd mention the GFS and ECMWF have been less thansterling with genesis this year and have been developing systems that have not gone on and developed and have not developed systems that went on and did develop. So don't put too much stock in the models' genesis abilities this year.

[Vortex]

H+126 intensifying, very near eastern DR


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal126.gif

['CaneFreak]

Is it just me or when you run this loop, does it appear that the stratocumulus clouds (marking the location of the dry air) are breaking up? If so, that would indicate increasing instability. Offtopic: By the way, I really like the new server...keep the upgrades coming!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rb.html

[Aric Dunn]

Thought i'd mention the GFS and ECMWF have been less thansterling with genesis this year and have been developing systems that have not gone on and developed and have not developed systems that went on and did develop. So don't put too much stock in the models' genesis abilities this year.

who really does... or intensity.. Im just strictly really talking about the synoptic setup... if it were to form or not

[Vortex]

H+132 over eastern DR...GFS Consistancy run to run pretty amazing to this point...




http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal132.gif

[wxman57]

If they're talking about recon, perhaps it's time to declare an invest?