Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic -(Now Invest 97L)

[SFLcane]

Can't wait for the 18z run

I'm going to wait for the 12z Euro run to show nothing like it did yesterday and everyone pulling their hair out

Or..The GFS is out to sea on 18z run.

['CaneFreak]

Nope...not in this synoptic setup

Can't wait for the 18z run

I'm going to wait for the 12z Euro run to show nothing like it did yesterday and everyone pulling their hair out

Or..The GFS is out to sea on 18z run.

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian has it over eastern Hispaniola at 144 hours....not very strong though.

[Aric Dunn]

well not over hispanola.. lol

[Vortex]

Read a book by H.W. "buzz" Benard titled Eyewall where St.Simons Island GA gets hit by a cat 5... good read...

[Vortex]

1615 vis appears to be tightening some, popcorn convection, and better inflow...We may see this tagged later today...

[Kohlecane]

This needs to be an Invest

[maxx9512]

Clouds and now some convection showing up around the center. Maybe starting to get going?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-avn.html

Thinking the same thing Vortex

[cycloneye]

This needs to be an Invest

The folks who make the decision about tagging invests will determine the right time for it to be up.

[Kohlecane]

Clouds and now some convection showing up around the center. Maybe starting to get going?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-avn.html

Thinking the same thing Vortex

And where might this center be exactly
, cause i might be looking at Wrong Lon Lat

[Kohlecane]

This needs to be an Invest

The folks who make the decision about tagging invests will determine the right time for it to be up.

oh i know, im just saying, this is way more developed and better organized than, 92l, and 93l in my opinion around same region

[maxx9512]

Clouds and now some convection showing up around the center. Maybe starting to get going?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-avn.html

Thinking the same thing Vortex

And where might this center be exactly
, cause i might be looking at Wrong Lon Lat

It looks to be about 14n - 36w

[Blown Away]

This needs to be an Invest

The folks who make the decision about tagging invests will determine the right time for it to be up.

Just remember I said it first!

[Ivanhater]

It is interesting that the GFS shows no trough in the picture when this is aiming at the U.S., it just follows the weakness with a building ridge. All depends on where the weakness sets up and how long does the ridging build back. Last run shows the building ridge continuing to push this well into the interior U.S. If the ridge builds in faster the Gulf is in trouble. If it does build slower, the SE coast is in trouble. The point is, there does not look to be a trough to sweep it away from the U.S.

[Aric Dunn]

Clouds and now some convection showing up around the center. Maybe starting to get going?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-avn.html

Thinking the same thing Vortex

And where might this center be exactly
, cause i might be looking at Wrong Lon Lat

It looks to be about 14n - 36w

well there is a average "center" but no well defined surface circ to pin point as the center needs more convection

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Well the GFS certainly has been consistent on bombing this system out, but it would not be the first time in the past few weeks it has tried to do so with waves traversing the MDR. Plus, it is out in the long-range beyond 6 days where forecasting skill from these models drops dramatically.

The ECMWF/CMC/UKMET just don't do much with this system, though do keep an organized low heading generally west or WNW the next several days. So the GFS is an outlier and should be treated as such right now.

Additionally notice in the WV loop, that big upper-level low NE of the Leewards. That is causing a good amount of West to WSW shear across the Eastern Caribbean and Western MDR. That combined with dry mid-level air (oranges in the loop)....and sinking air with low relative humidities will probably not allow this system to do much the next several days. Beyond that time, once we look past 4 or 5 days, development is certainly a possibility...and I am leaning towards this becoming a player in the long-range.

Nonetheless, we should see an invest here declared within the next 24 hours so we can see the GFDL and HWRF (GFDL is the one I am more interested in)

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180l.gif

[Aric Dunn]

Well the GFS certainly has been consistent on bombing this system out, but it would not be the first time in the past few weeks it has tried to do so with waves traversing the MDR. Plus, it is out in the long-range beyond 6 days where forecasting skill from these models drops dramatically.

The ECMWF/CMC/UKMET just don't do much with this system, though do keep an organized low heading generally west or WNW the next several days. So the GFS is an outlier and should be treated as such right now.

Additionally notice in the WV loop, that big upper-level low NE of the Leewards. That is causing a good amount of West to WSW shear across the Eastern Caribbean and Western MDR. That combined with dry mid-level air (oranges in the loop)....and sinking air with low relative humidities will probably not allow this system to do much the next several days. Beyond that time, once we look past 4 or 5 days, development is certainly a possibility...

Nonetheless, we should see an invest here declared within the next 24 hours so we can see the GFDL and HWRF (GFDL is the one I am more interested in)

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180l.gif

[img]http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-l.jpg[/ig]

outlier on intensity synoptic set up between the models is very similar (and has been consistently over many runs) and
thats what needs to be focused on. and that applies to a weak system or a strong one..

['CaneFreak]

Why the GFDL and HWRF? Those models have worse forecasting skill than the GFS...

Also, I think that upper low is forecasted to weaken and move north and east with the exiting trough coming of of the Eastern CONUS...someone please correct me if I am wrong...

Well the GFS certainly has been consistent on bombing this system out, but it would not be the first time in the past few weeks it has tried to do so with waves traversing the MDR. Plus, it is out in the long-range beyond 6 days where forecasting skill from these models drops dramatically.

The ECMWF/CMC/UKMET just don't do much with this system, though do keep an organized low heading generally west or WNW the next several days. So the GFS is an outlier and should be treated as such right now.

Additionally notice in the WV loop, that big upper-level low NE of the Leewards. That is causing a good amount of West to WSW shear across the Eastern Caribbean and Western MDR. That combined with dry mid-level air (oranges in the loop)....and sinking air with low relative humidities will probably not allow this system to do much the next several days. Beyond that time, once we look past 4 or 5 days, development is certainly a possibility...

Nonetheless, we should see an invest here declared within the next 24 hours so we can see the GFDL and HWRF (GFDL is the one I am more interested in)

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180l.gif

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian out to 180 hours.

Strengthening and heading WNW

[Stormcenter]

I'll go out on a limb here and say that "if" this does develop it's not a central GOM event. JMHO