Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic -(Now Invest 97L)

[JTE50]

Bastardi tweeted that the fact that the SW Pacific has shut down and the SE Pacific has ramped up is a signal that the lights are about to come on in the Atlantic.

SW Pacific? Do you mean NW Pacific- Typhoon land ?

I assumed they meant SW part of North Pacific. LOL.

yeah, because SW Pacific is where the cyclones are during our winter.

[ozonepete]

care to guess what four models are the reliable ones?

I think that he is talking about GFS, Euro, NOGAPS and UKMET, I have seen that he never mentions the Canadian in his discussions although IMO the Canadian is more reliable than NOGAPS.

I agree with you because he's talking about formation. CMC beats NOGAPS on that. But they all beat CMC on intensity. If CMC were right, we'd have 1 cat 5 per week. LOL

[gatorcane]

Well the ECMWF is not that enthusiastic about this system. I am guessing it sees the high shear zone that is hanging out in the NE Caribbean area which, if verifies, will hinder development until the wave gets further west. Even before it crashes into Hispaniola on the 12Z, its not that impressive of a system. I would put more weight into the ECMWF solution at this point considering the GFS has done very poorly with these African waves so far this season.

[OURAGAN]

Continue to organize



Here is the forecast for guadeloupe on Sunday 21:

http://marine.meteoconsult.fr/meteo-mar ... chemin_fer

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Continue to organize



Here is the forecast for guadeloupe on Sunday 21:

http://marine.meteoconsult.fr/meteo-mar ... chemin_fer

Convection continue to increase. Should be interesting to see how does it looks later tonight during D-max...

[ROCK]

The good Doc Masters mentions the NOGAPS quite frequently...It is fun to look at when it divides a TW in 3 vortexs and developes all 3.... 12Z doesnt have a clue....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Ivanhater]

Well the ECMWF is not that enthusiastic about this system. I am guessing it sees the high shear zone that is hanging out in the NE Caribbean area which, if verifies, will hinder development until the wave gets further west. Even before it crashes into Hispaniola on the 12Z, its not that impressive of a system. I would put more weight into the ECMWF solution at this point considering the GFS has done very poorly with these African waves so far this season.

With the Euro flipping every run, I find it hard to put more weight in it. The GFS has been far more consistent. Actually, the 12z Euro is the most alarming run so far with the setup it is advertising. South Florida and the Gulf coast are wide open this run.

[ROCK]

Continue to organize

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

Here is the forecast for guadeloupe on Sunday 21:

http://marine.meteoconsult.fr/meteo-mar ... chemin_fer

Convection continue to increase. Should be interesting to see how does it looks later tonight during D-max...

the cloud formation to the north and east indicates sinking air...A very stable environment. Meaning it aint going to pulling energy from the north or from the west. Its main source is the ITCZ to the south. IMO, its going to have a hard time maintaining in this environment. Not saying it wont develope though...I would like the high to build some and push it south and really get in the juicy stuff.... hmmm maybe it will do just that...

current steering

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... zoom=&time

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Current TC Formation Probability Map

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS rollin'

[Ivanhater]

24 hours

[KWT]

GFS looms way too agressive in the short term IMO...the ECM probably a better call for the short term...

ECM has been flip flopping however alot recently, however the pattern is condusive for a US landfall...

[Ivanhater]

60 hours....tightening up

[Ivanhater]

78 hours...approaching the Islands

[Ivanhater]

84 hours..hitting the Islands

[Vortex]

H+90 just SSW of Guadelope and strengthening....


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal090.gif

[KWT]

The BIG difference is the forward speed, the GFS is abit quicker whilst the ECM is pretty slow with the forward motion which means it probably catches somewhat less favourable upper conditions.

Given the SAL outbreak, the faster set-up probably is not a bad call...

ECM much further north as well and goes ionto the shear zone, the GFS stays clear of it to some extent.

[PTrackerLA]

Carib runner? Thinking this could be gulf bound this run...

[Vortex]

H+96 looks like PR may take a hit this run..


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal096.gif

[Ivanhater]

96 hours...really ramping up, solid ridging to the north