Food for thought.....(GOM development)

[Johnny]

This was taking off the Brownsville, Texas 2:25 pm discussion.........




.TROPICS...OTHER THAN THE 5H NON-TROPICAL LOW LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF...THE AREA REMAINS QUIET IN THE SHORT TERM. LONGER
RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A VARIETY OF DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR THE CARIB
AND THE GULF OF MEX. THE ETA TRIES TO SPIN UP A TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FRI NIGHT TAKING IT ON A NW TRACK TOWARDS
THE TX COASTLINE. THE ECMWF TRIES TO DEVELOP ANOTHER FEATURE ON A
SIMILAR TRACK BUT FROM A DIFFERENT SOURCE REGION IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE LATE FRI AND SAT. MEANWHILE...THE AVN SHOWS A THIRD
SOLUTION DEVELOPING A TROPICAL FEATURE MUCH LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND FURTHER EAST REACHING THE YUCATAN STRAITS MON MORNING.
WILL WANT TO SEE IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS REACH ANY KIND OF CONCENSUS ON
ANY PARTICULAR FEATURE.

[Rainband]

Looks like it's gonna be an interesting time..this coming week :o It is that time of year

[bfez1]

Watch and wait!!! Or is wait and watch???
Interesting weekend ahead!

[Guest]

Waiting for surf is all I do

[southerngale]

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
215 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2003

An excerpt from the discussion:
UNFORTUNATELY THE FORECAST BECOMES A LOT MORE UNCERTAIN LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THERE IS LITTLE CONSISTENCY BETWEEN
THE GLOBAL MODELS AND EVEN BETWEEN THEIR OWN SUCCESSIVE RUNS
CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...GULF...OR BAHAMAS. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT
CHANGE THE ONGOING FORECAST WHICH HAS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT A COUPLE OF DAYS
TO SEE IF THE MODELS CAN CONVERGE ON A GIVEN SOLN AND TO SEE IF WE
HAVE A PARTICULAR AREA THAT APPEARS TO BE GETTING BETTER
ORGANIZED.

[Stormsfury]

Some uncertainty with the Canadian Ensembles ... but a couple advertise a TC hit in the GOM 120 hours out (a couple at 96 hrs out as well) ... and a couple for the Southeast as well ...

I won't post one of the maps (since it's beyond 7 days, but one advertised the current CV wave as a fish storm but pressure down into the 920's)

[Johnny]

I saw that too southerngale. I think what it all boils down to is that a good handful of models are showing development but all are lacking consistency. This is where they need to come together. Does this mean that there will be development in the Gulf? This kind of leads us to believe that there will be but when is the question. Let's see what Friday brings us.