Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic -(Now Invest 97L)

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Ivanhater
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Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic

#501 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Aug 17, 2011 5:15 pm

102 hours

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Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic

#502 Postby CourierPR » Wed Aug 17, 2011 5:17 pm

Former NHC Director Max Mayfield just appeared on WPLG and, while I had the sound muted, he had a red arrow pointing just north of the islands. In other words, I don't think he believes this system will be a Caribbean runner.
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#503 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 17, 2011 5:19 pm

Vortex wrote:H+96 looks like PR may take a hit this run..


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal096.gif


PR has been hit over 10 times by GFS that it may be inevitable. :eek:
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Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic

#504 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Aug 17, 2011 5:19 pm

114 hours...passing just south of PR

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#505 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 17, 2011 5:19 pm

Heading towards Hispaniola this run as a strengthen ing system.

The GFS has thus far always restrengthened it, whilst the ECM pulls a Emily on its 12z run.
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Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic

#506 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Aug 17, 2011 5:20 pm

120 HOURS

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Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic

#507 Postby OURAGAN » Wed Aug 17, 2011 5:20 pm

it is confirmed by Meteo consult:


[img]http://marine.meteoconsult.fr/meteo-marine/de-vieux-fort-a-la-pointe-des-chateaux/guadeloupe/prevision_meteo_de-vieux-fort-a-la-pointe-des-chateaux_guadeloupe_zone_cotiere__9704_4.php#ancre_chemin_fer[/img]
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#508 Postby Vortex » Wed Aug 17, 2011 5:21 pm

H+114 Stronger this run, just s of PR....classic wnw motion and synoptics when comparing historical CV storms that eventually effected the US...






http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal114.gif
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Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic

#509 Postby OURAGAN » Wed Aug 17, 2011 5:21 pm

http://marine.meteoconsult.fr/meteo-mar ... chemin_fer
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#510 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 17, 2011 5:22 pm

About to make landfall at 120hrs I see...

Much is going to depend on whether it can really get going by then...

GFS is an outlier strength wise thats for sure...
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Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic

#511 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Aug 17, 2011 5:22 pm

126 hours...hitting Hispaniola

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Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic

#512 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Aug 17, 2011 5:23 pm

BTW here comes the tropical storm off Africa that both the GFS and Euro are showing
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#513 Postby Vortex » Wed Aug 17, 2011 5:23 pm

H+126 landfall eastern DR...GFS run to run consistancy stellar to this point...



http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal126.gif
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Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic

#514 Postby Portastorm » Wed Aug 17, 2011 5:24 pm

OURAGAN wrote:http://marine.meteoconsult.fr/meteo-marine/de-vieux-fort-a-la-pointe-des-chateaux/guadeloupe/prevision_meteo_de-vieux-fort-a-la-pointe-des-chateaux_guadeloupe_zone_cotiere__9704_4.php#ancre_chemin_fer



To what are you referring?
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Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic

#515 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Aug 17, 2011 5:24 pm

132 hours

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Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic

#516 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Aug 17, 2011 5:26 pm

138 hours...Weakening over Haiti

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Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic

#517 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Aug 17, 2011 5:26 pm

144 hours

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#518 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Aug 17, 2011 5:27 pm

Hmm, will this run still show it hitting the USA? or will it find a weakness? We shall see :)
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#519 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 17, 2011 5:28 pm

More likely to find the spine of Cuba than the weakness I think CZ!
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Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic

#520 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Aug 17, 2011 5:29 pm

150 hours...emerging off the coast of Haiti

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