TD#10 FORMS at east atlantic 14.6n-31.5w west at 20 mph
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cycloneye
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TD#10 FORMS at east atlantic 14.6n-31.5w west at 20 mph
Last edited by cycloneye on Wed Aug 27, 2003 7:05 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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WTNT45 KNHC 272039
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2003
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS
DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED
AND BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN 28 DEGREES C AND VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY
WEAK. VERY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED...AND THE LEVELLING
OFF OF THE MAX WINDS SHOWN LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD IS MOSTLY A
REFLECTION OF OUR GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN INTENSITY FORECASTS IN THE
3- TO 5-DAY RANGE.
THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP EASTERLIES AND IS MOVING ABOUT
270/17. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS TRACK IS BASICALLY A BLEND OF THE GFS AND U.K. MET
OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND IS ALSO A VERY TYPICAL ONE FOR
LATE AUGUST. THERE IS ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT...HOWEVER. IF THE
SYSTEM NEAR 20N44W BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH...IT COULD CREATE A
SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND RESULT IN A
MORE NORTHWARD THAN EXPECTED TRACK.
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2003
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS
DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED
AND BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN 28 DEGREES C AND VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY
WEAK. VERY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED...AND THE LEVELLING
OFF OF THE MAX WINDS SHOWN LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD IS MOSTLY A
REFLECTION OF OUR GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN INTENSITY FORECASTS IN THE
3- TO 5-DAY RANGE.
THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP EASTERLIES AND IS MOVING ABOUT
270/17. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS TRACK IS BASICALLY A BLEND OF THE GFS AND U.K. MET
OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND IS ALSO A VERY TYPICAL ONE FOR
LATE AUGUST. THERE IS ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT...HOWEVER. IF THE
SYSTEM NEAR 20N44W BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH...IT COULD CREATE A
SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND RESULT IN A
MORE NORTHWARD THAN EXPECTED TRACK.
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cycloneye
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Thanks Johnny for posting the discussion rapidly.
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wxman57
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Models
Steve H. wrote:Not gonna happen. 93L is getting attacked by massive shear that may be enough to put it to death. Will 92L get hit with the shear. Models are suppressing develop big time. No other explanation other than shear. IMO 92L will be just fine!
I'm not sure what models you see that are not developing TD 10, but the tropical intensity model (DSHIPS) is forecasting 80kts at 120hrs. That's an increase over previous model runs.
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wx247
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Re: Models
wxman57 wrote:Steve H. wrote:Not gonna happen. 93L is getting attacked by massive shear that may be enough to put it to death. Will 92L get hit with the shear. Models are suppressing develop big time. No other explanation other than shear. IMO 92L will be just fine!
I'm not sure what models you see that are not developing TD 10, but the tropical intensity model (DSHIPS) is forecasting 80kts at 120hrs. That's an increase over previous model runs.
Correct me if I am wrong but I think Steve H. was saying that 93L will not be developing and so it should leave plenty of room for 92L (or TD 10) to develop.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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cycloneye
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You got that right Garrett as there was confusion about that but that is correct as Steve was refering to 93L invest not developing.
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