Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic -(Now Invest 97L)

[Vortex]

I agree Vort. But when the GFS strikes go from New Awlins to South Carolina ya kinda gotta wonder. Just sayin

Anyways I'm hopin for a TX strike so Rock can get out of the sewer

Just needlin ya Rock.

If I need to find Rock or Ivan I just log in at 2am..It's a show in this time of year....

[Blown Away]

In nearly 10 years Luis I dont think ive beaten you too the punch once

I know he takes pride in that, many of us have tried and failed! He is the king of the TWO's!

[cycloneye]

Off-Topic=FYI,93L got 60% at 8 PM TWO.

[Vortex]

The question is will this be Harvey or Irene???? I say Irene....

[ozonepete]

In nearly 10 years Luis I dont think ive beaten you too the punch once

I know he takes pride in that, many of us have tried and failed! He is the king of the TWO's!

Never seen him miss.

[ozonepete]

The question is will this be Harvey or Irene???? I say Irene....

Yeah, I agree. 93L was just bumped to 60% and it's looking good to be Harvey.

[Blown Away]

The question is will this be Harvey or Irene???? I say Irene....

I say Irene, 93L looks good and may become Harvey soon, IMO.



Is this the making of a legend?

[jlauderdal]

care to guess what four models are the reliable ones?

I think that he is talking about GFS, Euro, NOGAPS and UKMET, I have seen that he never mentions the Canadian in his discussions although IMO the Canadian is more reliable than NOGAPS.

NOGAPS?

I think GFS, euro, ukmet and gfdl

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWD

WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC
ALONG 19N33W TO THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 13N34W MOVING W 15-20
KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
WAVE AXIS CONCENTRATED AT THE INTERSECTION WITH THE MONSOON
TROUGH. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WAS ALSO EVIDENT IN EARLIER ASCAT
DATA. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 36W-39W.

[jlauderdal]

8 PM TWO - 10%

SHOWER ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 750 MILES WEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.

Finally...

imagine the intensification that would have to take place for it to become a tropical cyclone within 48 hours

[floridasun78]

i see invest by morning IF look better in morning

[Gustywind]

Hey everyone, any latest pic of this POUCH?

[caneseddy]

FWIW...18z GFS ensembles are over South Florida...actually the ensembles from hour 216 on are all over Florida

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal216.gif

[sunnyday]

Michael,
Thank you so much for the graphics hour by hour that you posted. It made everything clear for me as it was presented, and it will be interesting to see if everything pans out that way. Great job!

[Kory]

FWIW...18z GFS ensembles are over South Florida...actually the ensembles from hour 216 on are all over Florida

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal216.gif

Definitely not a recurve out to sea with that ridge over the Atlantic.

[Ivanhater]

No problem Sunny day. Thanks to Vortex for helping as well.

18z GFS Ensembles cross So Flo then many of them bring it to the central gulf coast

[OuterBanker]

Geeze Louise, this pouch has scared everyone from NO to NS (Nova Scotia). Some scenarios look truly scary. A coast hugger, haven't seen one of those in a while. Some of the GEM's are really scary (down to 922 on one).

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow, that is one massive looking High pressure to the North, from the map that Michael posted.

[ROCK]

Wow, that is one massive looking High pressure to the North, from the map that Michael posted.

it is and to gain lat into that high it will be hard pressed especially if its booking west a good clip...

current steering

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

[OuterBanker]

My own personal fear is 70/20. If it is above 20N and west of 70 I'm afraid that it will be powerful having avoided Haiti. And too far west to avoid the US (JMHO).