Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic -(Now Invest 97L)

[lonelymike]

Rich Thomas meterologist out of Montgomery posted this I thought was interesting:

Global computer models have been hinting for 5 days now that there could possibly be a future tropical storm or hurricane affecting the southeastern US late next week or by the weekend. Too early to be more specific, and long range models don't have a lot of skill with tropical systems Stay tuned. we're watching. Follow me on twitter: richthomaswsfa

[Kory]

Rich Thomas meterologist out of Montgomery posted this I thought was interesting:

Global computer models have been hinting for 5 days now that there could possibly be a future tropical storm or hurricane affecting the southeastern US late next week or by the weekend. Too early to be more specific, and long range models don't have a lot of skill with tropical systems Stay tuned. we're watching. Follow me on twitter: richthomaswsfa

Its not so much the tropical system itself, its the synoptic pattern change that is being forecasted my several models. Its showing more of a SE US threat, from the central Gulf to North Carolina.

[ConvergenceZone]

My own personal fear is 70/20. If it is above 20N and west of 70 I'm afraid that it will be powerful having avoided Haiti. And too far west to avoid the US (JMHO).

If it does develop, I think it's a very good bet that it will hit the USA. Unlike previous waves where recurve was the talk of the town, not so with this wave.....

[caneseddy]

Rich Thomas meterologist out of Montgomery posted this I thought was interesting:

Global computer models have been hinting for 5 days now that there could possibly be a future tropical storm or hurricane affecting the southeastern US late next week or by the weekend. Too early to be more specific, and long range models don't have a lot of skill with tropical systems Stay tuned. we're watching. Follow me on twitter: richthomaswsfa

Its not so much the tropical system itself, its the synoptic pattern change that is being forecasted my several models. Its showing more of a SE US threat, from the central Gulf to North Carolina.

For some reason, the setup is reminding me a bit like 2004.....at the beginning of the season it was a very troughy pattern (with many storms recurving, including Charley with that unbelievable trough that turned it into SW Florida) until the end of August, whereby the pattern changed completely into the Bermuda high shifting west and bringing Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne into Florida

Just a thought

[Rgv20]

FWIW the 12zECMWF EPS Control Run by 216hrs has a broad area of 1010 Low Pressure around the Yucatan Channel and moves it NNE while strengthening to 996mb. It makes landfall at 330hrs in the Florida Panhandle......It almost takes 5 days to track from the Yucatan Channel to the Florida Panhandle!!!

Of course you can not look at the specifics this far out but the pattern would suggest a high risk for a TC hit for the central gulf coast to Florida and if this wave fails to develop quickly enough the threat would shift farther to the west.

[Ivanhater]

FWIW the 12zECMWF EPS Control Run by 216hrs has a broad area of 1010 Low Pressure around the Yucatan Channel and moves it NNE while strengthening to 996mb. It makes landfall at 330hrs in the Florida Panhandle......It almost takes 5 days to track from the Yucatan Channel to the Florida Panhandle!!!

Of course you can not look at the specifics this far out but the pattern would suggest a high risk for a TC hit for the central gulf coast to Florida and if this wave fails to develop quickly enough the threat would shift farther to the west.

Do you have a link for that Rgv?

[KWT]

Very interesting Rgv20, if only because the op is almost identical to that in terms of its position.

There is enough of a weakness to take it N/NNE but based on the ECM it'd be a very slow process if its synoptics were close...

[Rgv20]

ECMWF run is from Accuweather Pro.....they would hunt me down if I post a pic

[cycloneye]

Blown Away,still waiting!

[Ivanhater]

:uarrow: ECMWF run is from Accuweather Pro.....they would hunt me down if I post a pic

Thanks for posting the information though!

[Blown Away]

Blown Away,still waiting!

Today is defined by eastern standard time, I have about 3 hours to verify.

[lonelymike]

996 is not a very strong storm. Interesting that Euro doesn't really do much strength wise with this only the GFS.

[TYNI]

FWIW the 12zECMWF EPS Control Run by 216hrs has a broad area of 1010 Low Pressure around the Yucatan Channel and moves it NNE while strengthening to 996mb. It makes landfall at 330hrs in the Florida Panhandle......It almost takes 5 days to track from the Yucatan Channel to the Florida Panhandle!!!

Of course you can not look at the specifics this far out but the pattern would suggest a high risk for a TC hit for the central gulf coast to Florida and if this wave fails to develop quickly enough the threat would shift farther to the west.

Thanks for the info! Is this Pouch P17L developing, or a new system? Just want to clear!

[KWT]

996 is not a very strong storm. Interesting that Euro doesn't really do much strength wise with this only the GFS.

Considering several systems have been rather underdone by the ECM in terms of pressure, its pretty safe to say that 996mbs would probably be a hurricane...

[Ivanhater]

996 is not a very strong storm. Interesting that Euro doesn't really do much strength wise with this only the GFS.

Euro has been swinging from run to run on intensity. Also the Canadian strengthens it as it approaches Florida.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

No problem Sunny day. Thanks to Vortex for helping as well.

18z GFS Ensembles cross So Flo then many of them bring it to the central gulf coast

Agreed thank you so much to everyone who keep these runs coming for us. Ivanhater on that run am I reading the western edge of the high is around the middle keys? Meaning it could go further west by the lower keys and into the gulf missing the upper keys and miami from a direct hit.

[Ivanhater]

Here is the 12z FIM model.

[Kory]

996 is not a very strong storm. Interesting that Euro doesn't really do much strength wise with this only the GFS.

Remember never go by the strength shown on a global model. It hasn't even formed, so wait till it does and then we'll see about strength then. The environment shown on the Euro and GFS show very good conditions for strengthening.

[Rgv20]

Thanks for the info! Is this Pouch P17L developing, or a new system? Just want to clear!

Its Pouch P17L.

Very interesting Rgv20, if only because the op is almost identical to that in terms of its position.

There is enough of a weakness to take it N/NNE but based on the ECM it'd be a very slow process if its synoptics were close...

If the 500mb pattern were to verify the scary thing is the steering current would simply collapse and having a developing TC sitting in the Gulf waiting to hitch a ride is not a pretty thought.

[Vortex]

Starting to take on "the look"


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/rb-l.jpg