ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Florida1118]

Anyone thinking T.D. by tomorrow morning?

Yep, Im thinking TD at 11pm tomorrow

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[ozonepete]

I also think T.D. sometime tomorrow. Also, this will go at least 50 miles north of the northern Honduras coast. You can see it is gaining latitude little by little, i.e. it's not going due west anymore.

[KWT]

Probably has a good shout at being a TD tomorrow, but they may well wait for recon in the afternoon...

[ozonepete]

Probably has a good shout at being a TD tomorrow, but they may well wait for recon in the afternoon...

That would be smart. It looked pretty damn good today and they found no LLC at all...

[crimi481]

I say 90% odds it gets shreaded /absorbed into the chaotic upper level flow.
Cold front all the down to S. Fl? Its Aug 15 th.?

Something in air near Gulf. Shredding them all - it seems
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html

[Florida1118]

I say 90% odds it gets shreaded /absorbed into the chaotic upper level flow.
Cold front all the down to S. Fl? Its Aug 15 th.?

Something in air near Gulf. Shredding them all - it seems
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html

NHC says theres a 60% chance your wrong Well see, Im pretty sure we'll get to 8/0/0.

[ozonepete]

I say 90% odds it gets shreaded /absorbed into the chaotic upper level flow.
Cold front all the down to S. Fl? Its Aug 15 th.?

Something in air near Gulf. Shredding them all - it seems
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html

NHC says theres a 60% chance your wrong Well see, Im pretty sure we'll get to 8/0/0.

Or 7/1/0 - wouldn't surprise me.

[tailgater]

I'm begining to think that this map/chart is trash. LOTS of vorticity south of Jamacia.


Look at the 15 frame loop.
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

[HurrMark]

I say 90% odds it gets shreaded /absorbed into the chaotic upper level flow.
Cold front all the down to S. Fl? Its Aug 15 th.?

Something in air near Gulf. Shredding them all - it seems
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html

NHC says theres a 60% chance your wrong Well see, Im pretty sure we'll get to 8/0/0.

Or 7/1/0 - wouldn't surprise me.

So you are saying Gert will regenerate somehow into a hurricane...j/k, I know what you mean.

In my opinion, this will probably be a TD at some point...and it could become a tropical storm. Beyond that depends on the latitude. If it clears 16N and stays over open waters for a little longer, it might have a fighting chance to become a hurricane...IF it slows down. Otherwise, I don't think it will have enough time.

I don't think the streak will go past 8 no matter what, though...not an official prediction, but I think the "weak TS" season is on its last legs...

[ozonepete]

LOL yeah I guess it's making a second trip around the Atlantic.

[tailgater]

Clear LLC now, It Might not be at the surface yet but it's very close. TD as soon as a plane checks it out or when they get enough suface obs. T-storms should increase again tonite. This is my opinion only.

[Macrocane]

I think it could become a TD tomorrow but I agree that NHC is going to wait for RECON to upgrade it.

[boca]

Clear LLC now, It Might not be at the surface yet but it's very close. TD as soon as a plane checks it out or when they get enough suface obs. T-storms should increase again tonite. This is my opinion only.

I agree it has a tight spin to it.

[supercane]

Clear LLC now, It Might not be at the surface yet but it's very close. TD as soon as a plane checks it out or when they get enough suface obs. T-storms should increase again tonite. This is my opinion only.

Not so clear yet based on:
ASCAT, which shows a presentation more consistent with a wave and fairly light winds:

Surface obs, which currently do not show any westerly winds, despite low shear and upper-level anticyclone:


Agree that tonight will be interesting to see if the circulation at mid-levels can work down to the surface

[Sanibel]

Key is that the convection is now over the center.

[SouthDadeFish]

Up to 70%:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A CONCENTRATED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTH OF JAMAICA CONTINUES
TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE BEGINNING TO
FALL NEAR THE DISTURBANCE AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM
TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT MOVES OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA IN A DAY OR TWO. INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF HONDURAS...
NICARAGUA...BELIZE...AND EASTERN YUCATAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

[BZSTORM]

whens the next recon scheduled for tomorrow anyone know? thanks

[cycloneye]

whens the next recon scheduled for tomorrow anyone know? thanks

Tommorow afternoon around 1:30 PM EDT the plane arrives at the center.

Code: Select all

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
       A. 18/1800Z
       B. AFXXX 02FFA INVEST
       C. 18/1430Z
       D. 15.0N 80.0W
       E. 18/1730Z TO 18/2130Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT



[tailgater]

Clear LLC now, It Might not be at the surface yet but it's very close. TD as soon as a plane checks it out or when they get enough suface obs. T-storms should increase again tonite. This is my opinion only.

Not so clear yet based on:
ASCAT, which shows a presentation more consistent with a wave and fairly light winds:

Surface obs, which currently do not show any westerly winds, despite low shear and upper-level anticyclone:


Agree that tonight will be interesting to see if the circulation at mid-levels can work down to the surface

Yep as I said might not be at the surface just yet but it getting very close. The NHC says pressures starting to fall increases my thoughts that it will work it's way down, probably by mid morning if T-storms continue to increase.

[KWT]

Still looking good for development but I think its only going to get to maybe a weak TS...I see a last gasp type development myself.