Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic -(Now Invest 97L)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Miami Storm Tracker
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 910
Age: 67
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2010 10:12 pm
Location: Key Largo, Fla.
Contact:

Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

#641 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Wed Aug 17, 2011 9:33 pm

stormhunter7 wrote:up to 2009 and all the models that were used up until then... Enjoy :)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/model_summary_20090724.pdf


Great stuff thanks.
0 likes   

User avatar
Miami Storm Tracker
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 910
Age: 67
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2010 10:12 pm
Location: Key Largo, Fla.
Contact:

P17l

#642 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Wed Aug 17, 2011 9:53 pm

According to TWC they just said that it is now an invest.
0 likes   

User avatar
lester
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1305
Age: 36
Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2005 5:21 pm
Location: Washington, DC
Contact:

Re: P17l

#643 Postby lester » Wed Aug 17, 2011 9:55 pm

0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7351
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: P17l

#644 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Aug 17, 2011 9:57 pm

[quote="Miami Storm Tracker"]According to TWC they just said that it is now an invest.[/quo
if the weather channel said that, its misinformation, or a misunderstanding
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145366
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

#645 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 17, 2011 9:59 pm

No invest yet,but it may be very very soon.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Miami Storm Tracker
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 910
Age: 67
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2010 10:12 pm
Location: Key Largo, Fla.
Contact:

Re: P17l

#646 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Wed Aug 17, 2011 10:00 pm

lester wrote:not according to atcf

http://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/


I can't find it official any where else it was Cantorie that said it.
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7351
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: P17l

#647 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Aug 17, 2011 10:01 pm

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:
lester wrote:not according to atcf

http://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/


I can't find it official any where else it was Cantorie that said it.


Jim Cantore was wrong then, it happens to the best of us even him
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145366
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: P17l

#648 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 17, 2011 10:02 pm

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:
lester wrote:not according to atcf

http://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/


I can't find it official any where else it was Cantorie that said it.


When you see 8/18/11 besides 97L,that is it.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Miami Storm Tracker
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 910
Age: 67
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2010 10:12 pm
Location: Key Largo, Fla.
Contact:

Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

#649 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Wed Aug 17, 2011 10:05 pm

Thanks,

WSVN said it was up to 30 % is looking better once it gets going it will be a wait and see if the track goes like they have.
Gees now he changes to 10 %
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145366
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

#650 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 17, 2011 10:08 pm

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:Thanks,

WSVN said it was up to 30 % is looking better once it gets going it will be a wait and see if the track goes like they have.
Gees now he changes to 10 %


You will know more rapidly in Storm2k than the TV station when is invest 97L. :)
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Kohlecane
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 593
Age: 33
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:03 pm
Location: Beaufort, SC

Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

#651 Postby Kohlecane » Wed Aug 17, 2011 10:12 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Miami Storm Tracker wrote:Thanks,

WSVN said it was up to 30 % is looking better once it gets going it will be a wait and see if the track goes like they have.
Gees now he changes to 10 %


You will know more rapidly in Storm2k than the TV station when is invest 97L. :)

couldn't agree more :lol:
0 likes   
Once I see the REDS and GREENS Converge on a Base Velocity. ... I'm There!!

This is NOT an Official Forecast....Just my Opinion. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
HIGHLIGHTS : '13 El Reno Tornado : 2013 Storm Chaser Tour, Joaquin; SC flood event, Matthew '16, Lowcountry Snow storm Jan '18

Turtle
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 285
Joined: Wed Jan 20, 2010 9:02 pm
Location: East Texas

Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

#652 Postby Turtle » Wed Aug 17, 2011 10:13 pm

Hey guys, what does invest mean? I saw this in another forum as well.

I don't know much about hurricanes, but I do see the 10% of tropical cyclone development via NOAA. Let's hope the chance goes up in a few hours.

*EDIT*

@weather2: Ok I understand now. Didn't sound as complicated as I thought.
Last edited by Turtle on Wed Aug 17, 2011 10:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

Adoquín
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 140
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 8:47 pm

#653 Postby Adoquín » Wed Aug 17, 2011 10:19 pm

Folks living from Martinique north, Puerto Rico and Eastern Hispaniola should watch this. GFS and NAM continue to show day after day this as at least a TD entering the Eastern Caribbean north of 15 on a wnw course. A cyclone just off the east coast of Florida a few days later would be consistent with that and it is also being shown by several models. We shall see....
0 likes   

weatherguy2
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 72
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 2:45 am

Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

#654 Postby weatherguy2 » Wed Aug 17, 2011 10:21 pm

Turtle wrote:Hey guys, what does invest mean? I saw this in another forum as well.

I don't know much about hurricanes, but I do see the 10% of tropical cyclone development via NOAA. Let's hope the chance goes up in a few hours.


From NHC
Invest (short for investigation or to investigate):
A weather system for which a tropical cyclone forecast center (NHC, CPHC, or JTWC) is interested in collecting specialized data sets (e.g., microwave imagery) and/or running model guidance. Once a system has been designated as an invest, data collection and processing is initiated on a number of government and academic web sites, including the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and the University of Wisconsin Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (UW-CIMSS). The designation of a system as an invest does not correspond to any particular likelihood of development of the system into a tropical cyclone; operational products such as the Tropical Weather Outlook or the JTWC/TCFA should be consulted for this purpose.
0 likes   

User avatar
SeminoleWind
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 359
Age: 50
Joined: Wed Jun 02, 2010 8:37 pm
Location: Lake County Florida

#655 Postby SeminoleWind » Wed Aug 17, 2011 10:25 pm

shouldn't the 00z GFS start rolling soon?
0 likes   
This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
South Texas Storms
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4227
Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re:

#656 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Aug 17, 2011 10:27 pm

SeminoleWind wrote:shouldn't the 00z GFS start rolling soon?


Yeah it starts updating in 10 minutes.
0 likes   

User avatar
ConvergenceZone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5194
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
Location: Northern California

Re:

#657 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Aug 17, 2011 10:29 pm

SeminoleWind wrote:shouldn't the 00z GFS start rolling soon?



I can't wait. Hopefully Rock or Michael will post them as they come out...We'll see if consistency can be added once again....
0 likes   

Adoquín
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 140
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 8:47 pm

#658 Postby Adoquín » Wed Aug 17, 2011 10:43 pm

SAL conditions will keep it in check for a while, thye are not great, but the circulation is large enough it could if it develop an LLC tap into quite humid air on its back and under its feet to compensate. for the duration of the SAL influence. Have not checked if it has shear or a high aloft or on its way.
0 likes   

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

#659 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:05 pm

Image


54hr
0 likes   

rockyman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

#660 Postby rockyman » Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:06 pm

Image
66 hr
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: AnnularCane, Google Adsense [Bot], sasha_B, Sciencerocks, Sps123, TomballEd, USTropics and 48 guests