Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic -(Now Invest 97L)

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ConvergenceZone
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Re:

#681 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:21 pm

rockyman wrote:Low pressure moving into the NE US is a good bit stronger on this run...could move it more poleward sooner



Hmm, recurve on this run? We shall see.....
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Re:

#682 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:22 pm

rockyman wrote:Low pressure moving into Maine is a good bit stronger on this run (997 mb!)...could move it more poleward sooner



looks progressive....might give it a bump in lat....
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Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

#683 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:23 pm

HurricaneMaster_PR wrote:Also direct hit on SW Puerto Rico in 108 hrs


Run 11 that hits us.
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#684 Postby Scorpion » Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:23 pm

If anything the weakness would help it stay off Hispaniola
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Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

#685 Postby weatherguy2 » Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:24 pm

Edit for new hr 162 update:
Image
Last edited by weatherguy2 on Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:30 pm, edited 8 times in total.
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#686 Postby rockyman » Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:25 pm

Ridging is somewhat weaker this time.
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Re:

#687 Postby psyclone » Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:26 pm

Scorpion wrote:If anything the weakness would help it stay off Hispaniola

possibly the conus as well.
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Re:

#688 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:26 pm

rockyman wrote:Ridging is somewhat weaker this time.



It may not be enough to turn it North quickly enough to miss the US entirely though....
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#689 Postby Scorpion » Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:26 pm

Free of Hispaniola and ready to go berserk 8-)
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Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

#690 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:27 pm

travels through Hispa.....that will eat it up some.....

GFS doesnt realize what Hispa can do to a core....poops it out still a strong TS....
Last edited by ROCK on Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#691 Postby rockyman » Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:28 pm

Almost identical position through 150 hours:
Image
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Re:

#692 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:30 pm

rockyman wrote:Almost identical position through 150 hours:
Image


Very close to the runs Ivan hater posted earlier.
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Re:

#693 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:30 pm

rockyman wrote:Almost identical position through 6 days



In my book it is consistency of the model at least for the first 6 days since it began to show this.
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#694 Postby rockyman » Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:31 pm

Starting to really strengthen north of eastern Cuba
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Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

#695 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:31 pm

Image


someone tell me this travels over Hispa and still has enough to keep this intensity.....I have doubts...
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#696 Postby SeminoleWind » Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:31 pm

Nearly identical run
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Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

#697 Postby weatherguy2 » Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:32 pm

Hour 180 (Edit Update):
Image
Last edited by weatherguy2 on Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:35 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#698 Postby rockyman » Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:33 pm

Hugging Cuban coastline closer than 18z
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Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

#699 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:34 pm

damn, this model has hardly wavered in the last 5 days, thats rediculous
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Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

#700 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:35 pm

High Pressure seems to be building back west again on that map at 174 hours.
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