Caribbean - Central America Weather
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Re: Caribbean - C A=Watching 93L in C Carib/Wave in E Atl
Good morning Luis, is that the "blob" that is fairly far South, not far from Barbados?
I see it on the satellite
is it labeled an invest?
I see it on the satellite
is it labeled an invest?
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- cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - C A=Watching 93L in C Carib/Wave in E Atl
msbee wrote:Good morning Luis, is that the "blob" that is fairly far South, not far from Barbados?
I see it on the satellite
is it labeled an invest?
Not invest now.That is a piece that broke out from the strong wave 93L that moved thru the islands. What may be invest soon is the wave in Eastern Atlantic.
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Re: Caribbean - C A=Watching 93L in C Carib/Wave in E Atl
msbee wrote:Good morning Luis, is that the "blob" that is fairly far South, not far from Barbados?
I see it on the satellite
is it labeled an invest?
Good observation Msbee



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From our daily newspaper
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 134943.php
METEO
Orange level maintained for heavy rains and storm
franceantilles.fr17.08.2011
Under a more variable sky, the rains will be less widespread and sustainable today in an atmosphere that remains highly unstable and moist. By thus persistence of risk high isolated stormy showers locally strong.
Tropical n ° 27-wave away currently in Caribbean but always generates intense rainy and stormy homes on the Lesser Antilles. It has fallen since Monday morning of generally between 60 and 120 mm on the set of Guadeloupe, between 150 and 200 mm in the mountains. (1 mm = 1 litre of water to the metre-square).
Under a more variable sky, the rains will be less widespread and sustainable today in an atmosphere that remains highly unstable and moist. By thus persistence of risk high isolated stormy showers locally strong. Given the large quantities of water already fallen over the past 48 hours, stormy showers even isolated may be intense enough to cause sudden overflow of rivers and gullies, as well as mud flows. Caution is therefore required in all travel today.
INDIVIDUAL MEASURES OF BEHAVIOUR VALIDATED IN THE SPECIFIC "WEATHER PHENOMENA" PROVISIONS ORSEC
Find out about the weather situation and be particularly careful:
-If you need to risk in outdoor sports
-If your outdoor activities are located in an exposed area on Earth, especially in the mountains near
streams, as in sea also.
-If you must ride in flood-prone areas (crossing Fords or low passages)
(cashed).
-in case of storm: avoid the use of telephones and electrical appliances. Do you seek not in
a wooded area, nearby towers or poles.

METEO
Orange level maintained for heavy rains and storm
franceantilles.fr17.08.2011
Under a more variable sky, the rains will be less widespread and sustainable today in an atmosphere that remains highly unstable and moist. By thus persistence of risk high isolated stormy showers locally strong.
Tropical n ° 27-wave away currently in Caribbean but always generates intense rainy and stormy homes on the Lesser Antilles. It has fallen since Monday morning of generally between 60 and 120 mm on the set of Guadeloupe, between 150 and 200 mm in the mountains. (1 mm = 1 litre of water to the metre-square).
Under a more variable sky, the rains will be less widespread and sustainable today in an atmosphere that remains highly unstable and moist. By thus persistence of risk high isolated stormy showers locally strong. Given the large quantities of water already fallen over the past 48 hours, stormy showers even isolated may be intense enough to cause sudden overflow of rivers and gullies, as well as mud flows. Caution is therefore required in all travel today.
INDIVIDUAL MEASURES OF BEHAVIOUR VALIDATED IN THE SPECIFIC "WEATHER PHENOMENA" PROVISIONS ORSEC
Find out about the weather situation and be particularly careful:
-If you need to risk in outdoor sports
-If your outdoor activities are located in an exposed area on Earth, especially in the mountains near
streams, as in sea also.
-If you must ride in flood-prone areas (crossing Fords or low passages)
(cashed).
-in case of storm: avoid the use of telephones and electrical appliances. Do you seek not in
a wooded area, nearby towers or poles.
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Re: Caribbean - C A=Watching 93L in C Carib/Wave in E Atl
Thanks Gusty and Luis 

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Re: Caribbean - C A=Watching 93L in C Carib/Wave in E Atl
msbee wrote:Thanks Gusty and Luis




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Re: Caribbean - C A=Watching 93L in C Carib/Wave in E Atl
Hi! These are yesterday temperatures in Central America:
-Warmer than normal lows in Bellize, cooler than normal lows in Panama and near normal in the rest of the region.
-Near normal highs in all the region except Costa Rica and Panama where cooler than normal highs were registered.
Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 27°C (81°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 20.7°C (69.3°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17°C (63°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 7.4°C (45.3°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.8°C (67.6°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 11.3°C (52.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.0°C (71.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.4°C (63.3°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.1°C (71.8°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.2°C (41.4°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.8°C (73.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 12.1°C (53.8°F)
Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 32°C (90°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 30.5°C (86.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 26°C (79°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 23.3°C (73.9°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 34°C (93°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.5°C (86.9°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 21.1°C (70.0°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 34.7°C (94.5°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 29°C (84°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 34°C (93°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 31°C (88°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 26°C (79°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26.5°C (79.7°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 29.8°C (85.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 10.1°C (50.2°F)
Panama city, Panama 27.9°C (82.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 23.1°C (73.6°F)
-Warmer than normal lows in Bellize, cooler than normal lows in Panama and near normal in the rest of the region.
-Near normal highs in all the region except Costa Rica and Panama where cooler than normal highs were registered.
Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 27°C (81°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 20.7°C (69.3°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17°C (63°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 7.4°C (45.3°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.8°C (67.6°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 11.3°C (52.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.0°C (71.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.4°C (63.3°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.1°C (71.8°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.2°C (41.4°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.8°C (73.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 12.1°C (53.8°F)
Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 32°C (90°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 30.5°C (86.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 26°C (79°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 23.3°C (73.9°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 34°C (93°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.5°C (86.9°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 21.1°C (70.0°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 34.7°C (94.5°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 29°C (84°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 34°C (93°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 31°C (88°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 26°C (79°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26.5°C (79.7°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 29.8°C (85.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 10.1°C (50.2°F)
Panama city, Panama 27.9°C (82.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 23.1°C (73.6°F)
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Re: Caribbean - C A=Watching 93L in C Carib/Wave in E Atl
Hi, just to post that Today we saw Hail in my hometown Aguada PR. Big thunderstorm.
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Re: Caribbean - C A=Watching 93L in C Carib/Wave in E Atl
Boriken wrote:Hi, just to post that Today we saw Hail in my hometown Aguada PR. Big thunderstorm.
Hola desde San Juan. Here is what came out earlier this afternoon about it.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
PRC001-003-005-011-059-071-081-083-093-097-099-111-117-131-141-153-
171930-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
232 PM AST WED AUG 17 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 330 PM AST FOR PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING
MUNICIPALITIES
IN PUERTO RICO
ISABELA...ADJUNTAS...MARICAO...MOCA...SAN SEBASTIAN...UTUADO...
YAUCO...AGUADILLA...AGUADA...LAS MARIAS...LARES...GUAYANILLA...
MAYAGUEZ...RINCON...PENUELAS AND ANASCO
AT 228 PM AST...AN EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED SMALL HAIL IN AGUADA.
THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA
THAT IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH. GUSTY WINDS...OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO PRESENT WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.
$$
JJA
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Re: Caribbean - C A=Watching 93L in C Carib/Wave in E Atl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
310 PM AST WED AUG 17 2011
.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE THAT AFFECTED THE AREA YESTERDAY KEEPS
MOVING WEST. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TOMORROW
AND DECREASE ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY FOR
FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE PW VALUES SHOULD
REMAIN CLOSE TO 2.0 INCHES FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THEN A SLIGHT DECREASE IN PW IS SHOWN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN OVERALL INSTABILITY AS WELL.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW ACROSS THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
A MORE STABLE AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO ENTER OUR AREA BY FRIDAY AND
INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT ONLY SHOW A DECREASE IN PW
BUT ALSO IT SHOWS A DECENT CAP. THEREFORE...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
FOR THE WEEKEND MAY BE LIMITED.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME VCSH...VCTS AND THE CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR AT TAF
SITE...TJMZ AS TS MOVE THROUGH THAT AREA BETWEEN 1718/1721. GUSTY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE...GENERALLY EAST 15-22 KT WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS
OF 20-30 KT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 78 90 / 40 40 30 30
STT 80 90 80 90 / 50 50 50 50
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
310 PM AST WED AUG 17 2011
.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE THAT AFFECTED THE AREA YESTERDAY KEEPS
MOVING WEST. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TOMORROW
AND DECREASE ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY FOR
FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE PW VALUES SHOULD
REMAIN CLOSE TO 2.0 INCHES FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THEN A SLIGHT DECREASE IN PW IS SHOWN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN OVERALL INSTABILITY AS WELL.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW ACROSS THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
A MORE STABLE AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO ENTER OUR AREA BY FRIDAY AND
INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT ONLY SHOW A DECREASE IN PW
BUT ALSO IT SHOWS A DECENT CAP. THEREFORE...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
FOR THE WEEKEND MAY BE LIMITED.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME VCSH...VCTS AND THE CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR AT TAF
SITE...TJMZ AS TS MOVE THROUGH THAT AREA BETWEEN 1718/1721. GUSTY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE...GENERALLY EAST 15-22 KT WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS
OF 20-30 KT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 78 90 / 40 40 30 30
STT 80 90 80 90 / 50 50 50 50
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Re: Caribbean - C A=Watching 93L in C Carib/Wave in E Atl
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
PRC021-025-029-031-033-047-051-061-063-087-105-119-127-135-137-139-
143-172030-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
339 PM AST WED AUG 17 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 430 PM AST FOR PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING
MUNICIPALITIES
IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...CAGUAS...CANOVANAS...COROZAL...GUAYNABO...GURABO...
NARANJITO...SAN JUAN...TRUJILLO ALTO...VEGA ALTA...DORADO...TOA
ALTA...TOA BAJA...CAROLINA...CATANO...RIO GRANDE AND LOIZA
AT 336 PM AST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 16 MILES NORTH OF
LOIZA TO CAROLINA...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 25 MPH. THIS LINE HAS A
HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AS THEY MOVED OVER THE
SAN JUAN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. EXPECT BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND WIND
GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS THIS LINE PASSES BY.
PRC021-025-029-031-033-047-051-061-063-087-105-119-127-135-137-139-
143-172030-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
339 PM AST WED AUG 17 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 430 PM AST FOR PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING
MUNICIPALITIES
IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...CAGUAS...CANOVANAS...COROZAL...GUAYNABO...GURABO...
NARANJITO...SAN JUAN...TRUJILLO ALTO...VEGA ALTA...DORADO...TOA
ALTA...TOA BAJA...CAROLINA...CATANO...RIO GRANDE AND LOIZA
AT 336 PM AST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 16 MILES NORTH OF
LOIZA TO CAROLINA...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 25 MPH. THIS LINE HAS A
HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AS THEY MOVED OVER THE
SAN JUAN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. EXPECT BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND WIND
GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS THIS LINE PASSES BY.
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Good evening everyone sorry had bad dsl connection last 2 days and still erratic (what a time for this to happen..sigh) anyway, up to my eyes in work have deadline for tomorrow and still have 200 photos to edit. can Luis or anyone else get me upto speed on what invest 93L is doing please - from the odd quick glances at models forum for this system looks to be swinging back and forth between Belize & Yucatan over last few days, I knew its all speculation until closed system and models can lock onto center But am I looking at poss low end TS or high end. TBH would rather a depression, I know would disapoint many hurricane watchers but let the big hurricanes be fish that we can watch spin up their glory out where its not going to trash anyone's already beleagered economies. thanks
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Re:
BZSTORM wrote:Good evening everyone sorry had bad dsl connection last 2 days and still erratic (what a time for this to happen..sigh) anyway, up to my eyes in work have deadline for tomorrow and still have 200 photos to edit. can Luis or anyone else get me upto speed on what invest 93L is doing please - from the odd quick glances at models forum for this system looks to be swinging back and forth between Belize & Yucatan over last few days, I knew its all speculation until closed system and models can lock onto center But am I looking at poss low end TS or high end. TBH would rather a depression, I know would disapoint many hurricane watchers but let the big hurricanes be fish that we can watch spin up their glory out where its not going to trash anyone's already beleagered economies. thanks
Hello my friend.It looks like you may have to prepare for a possible landfall in your country in 2 days.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON DID NOT FIND A
CLOSED CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. INTERESTS
ALONG THE COAST OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
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Re: Caribbean - C A=Watching 93L in C Carib/Wave in E Atl
And here are the models.


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Re: Caribbean - C A=Watching 93L in C Carib/Wave in E Atl
Yep, BZSTORM it seems it's going to make landfall in Belize late Friday or early Saturday, the good news is that the models have it as a small system so the rains won't be that widespread, anyway we have to be prepared for heavy rains just in case it grows in size and I said "we" because it may lift the monsoon trough and place it over El Salvador and Guatemala producing some heavy rains here too.
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thanks Luis & Macrocane well that model run looks awfully like route of TS matthew from Last year clipping across honduras to make landfall in southern Belize. Either way looks like rain event for us here, Ok will keep checking in from time to time, telecommunication service still hasn't figured out whats causing my DSL drop out had 2 hour downtime this evening. Thanks again. Oh and watch out if you goto Belize Met website which was recently revamped, as it was hacked over the weekend, they have it back up right now & cleaned & hopefully stronger firewall in place, but you should be aware the old links for radar will have changed.
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Re: Caribbean - C A=Watching 93L in C Carib/Wave in E Atl
Good morning.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
501 AM AST THU AUG 18 2011
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH
ATLANTIC WILL BE THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. AT UPPER LEVELS...A TUTT LOW NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL
MEANDER THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE START TO WEAKEN AS IT PULLS TO
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AND MAY REACH THE LESSER
ANTILLES SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ELONGATED
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF THE
ISLANDS TODAY...FAVORING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. LATEST GOES SATELLITE
AND DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY REVEAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING WSW TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THROUGH SATURDAY...TYPICAL WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD
AREAS OF PR/USVI...AND DIURNAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MODELS SHOW MOST ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY...WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
COVERAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE UNDER EVOLVING
PATTERN ALOFT.
LOOKING AHEAD...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR 38W THIS MORNING IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AND MAY REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES SUNDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... SQUALLY
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS PREVAIL AT TAF SITES WITH SOME VCSH/VCTS
MAINLY IN AFTERNOON. TJMZ AND WEST PR MOUNTAINS SHOW HIGHEST PROB OF
MVFR CONDS AND OBSCURED TERRAIN IN AFTERNOON TSRA. WINDS BLO FL150
STILL E 15-25 KT BUT WILL DROP TO 10-20 KT OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
COASTAL WATERS FOR WINDS UP TO 19 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET...EXCEPT
NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 89 78 / 20 30 30 40
STT 89 79 90 80 / 30 50 50 40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
501 AM AST THU AUG 18 2011
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH
ATLANTIC WILL BE THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. AT UPPER LEVELS...A TUTT LOW NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL
MEANDER THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE START TO WEAKEN AS IT PULLS TO
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AND MAY REACH THE LESSER
ANTILLES SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ELONGATED
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF THE
ISLANDS TODAY...FAVORING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. LATEST GOES SATELLITE
AND DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY REVEAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING WSW TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THROUGH SATURDAY...TYPICAL WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD
AREAS OF PR/USVI...AND DIURNAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MODELS SHOW MOST ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY...WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
COVERAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE UNDER EVOLVING
PATTERN ALOFT.
LOOKING AHEAD...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR 38W THIS MORNING IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AND MAY REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES SUNDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... SQUALLY
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS PREVAIL AT TAF SITES WITH SOME VCSH/VCTS
MAINLY IN AFTERNOON. TJMZ AND WEST PR MOUNTAINS SHOW HIGHEST PROB OF
MVFR CONDS AND OBSCURED TERRAIN IN AFTERNOON TSRA. WINDS BLO FL150
STILL E 15-25 KT BUT WILL DROP TO 10-20 KT OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
COASTAL WATERS FOR WINDS UP TO 19 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET...EXCEPT
NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 89 78 / 20 30 30 40
STT 89 79 90 80 / 30 50 50 40
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145351
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - C A=Watching 93L in C Carib/Wave in E Atl
Crown Weather discussion of 93L and wave in Central Atlantic.
http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557
http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Here is a summary of the situation after the vigorous TWAVE who have brang numerous floodings in Guadeloupe...
150 MM... AND THIS IS NOT FINISHED!
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 135184.php
M.A. France-Antilles Guadeloupe17.08.2011
(Sylvère SELBONNE)
He fell from the millions of litres of water on the Guadeloupe yesterday. Several districts were flooded. The orange alert is in effect still this morning.
Two days of continuous rain, or almost. The wave tropical No. 27 and storms that it generates have caused their lot of disturbances, yesterday, nothing really dramatic is to deplore. Program, the kilometres of Cap associated with portions of road flooded and serious climbs of water in typical areas.
It is 13 hours yesterday that weather France took the decision to move from the stage of yellow alert to orange alert for heavy rain and thunderstorms. At this time, he had already fallen, in 24 hours, a minimum of 50 mm of water (50 litres / m2) to Marie-Galante, 80 and 120 on the high-land, with spikes to 150 mm on the relief of the Basse-Terre. Saturated soil absorbed more nothing and is feared rivers and gullies overflows.
Traffic was very tricky in places, particularly on the bypass, between the Gabarre bridge and Petit-Bourg: in early afternoon, it took an hour to make these a few unfortunate kilometres, then yet that a good part of the drivers opted to traverse paths. Reported difficulties in Arnouville, Petit-Bourg, Morne-à - water and in les Abymes, on the road to the riviera, in the direction of guava, shroud, between Sainte-Rose and Lamentin. It is on Morne-à - the water and mould that the situation was the most embarrassing, with roads flooded and impassable on pavement, Bellevue, Chazeau, Bosrédon. Submerged engines of motorists who have assumed their chassis height already had dozens. And firefighters (read here) chômaient not.
[b]Another wave approach
It is in this same period, the early afternoon, that the situation is tough at the Boucan. The great river reached its rating alert, flooding several surrounding areas. It was feared a possible closure of the bridge, which would have made the unmanageable situation for residents of Sainte-Rose. Because, as early as 13 hours, roads of Guadeloupe had announced the closure of the road to the crossing from 18 hours. "There are whole sections of Cliff which are very unstable, noted Sully Pandolf (roads of Guadeloupe).".
The risk of rockfall is really important. "At 18 hours, the situation was, of course, embarrassing, but nothing insurmountable was emerging.
The orange alert runs normally until the end of afternoon of today. The risk is described as "strong" and impact "important".
Note that there will be little respite: medium-term weather France monitors a large mass of clouds out of Africa, tends to being confused with the ITCZ (read above). "We have, it is true, a small concern about this wave, but not because the ITCZ goes back to her, told yesterday Norbert Aouizérats, head of the centre of the Raizet.". These two elements are not related. This time of year is a period of uplift of the ITCZ, and this phenomenon has no particular effect on the wave. "The wave nevertheless has some potential for organization. If it was - "it is much too early to know...". "- it may interest us next weekend, possibly as a depression.
Many have presumed the height of their chassis. Drowned engines number in the dozens, and firefighters had to intervene to rescue blocked drivers. (Sylvère SELBONNE)
-EVIDENCE: "I've lost everything."
Micheline ramsay and her husband, Raymond dias, live in Arnouville (Baie-Mahault). Yesterday, the water is entered into their house.
The water is mounted high in the parts before reflow (Sy.) (S)
"I was going to lunch." It's my husband! He told me to be immediately out of the House, that the water came. "Glamorous 50 Micheline Ramsay has feet in water. Yet, it has dropped gradually when we arrive on the spot. It's just after the gateway of Arnouville, cited to the right, any small roadside, a beautiful House of ten pieces, beautiful place, surrounded by massive. There, the House took water.
"The only ones who have come are constables...". »
It was around 15 hours. "The water is mounted very quickly." It is because of the ravine, which is never long–term. It has clogged the underside of the little bridge that passes here and when the rubbish cap jumped, the water is mounted far home, drowning, before invading the neighbouring houses. »
Micheline Ramsay supported. "I called the fire department but they said that was not within their jurisdiction, the need to call technical services." At this time (18 hours), one town hall not to is moved. The Mayor knows come and see us when there will be elections. But when you need something, person. Not even an elected, not one administrative. The only ones who have come are constables. »
Micheline, Raymond, more than four other people - "children, small children who live with us," she said, did not know, yesterday evening, if they could stay in their homes or had to evacuate... The smell, the fear of a sudden upwelling with rain expected. "Friends only came assist us...". ", she said. But, Micheline (a) of the spring!
Micheline deplores the Town Hall is not shown.
-Very solicited firefighters
Contacted later in the day yesterday, the fire alert processing centre does not lamented victim or injured following the floods. However, firefighters have been busy, especially in the afternoon. They were very requested, inter alia on the areas of Sainte-Rose, guava, Petit-Bourg - at Arnouville including-, but also to the mould at Chateau-Gaillard and paved. There, aquatic rescue (VAS) of the departmental fire and rescue (Sdis) Service had to rescue a motorist trapped by the rising waters. They have her out of his car. They had to proceed here and security warnings there. For most of the motorists in difficulty. The Dragon of the civil security helicopter did not intervene for rescues and the hoists, but remained on alert in case where. As the police and gendarmerie services. An intelligence unit was activated, yesterday, in Prefecture to follow the evolution of the situation in connection with the Commons and to coordinate the interventions of the different services of the State.
-The ITCZ, you know?
(S.B.)
The area of the Intertropical Convergence corresponds to the meteorological equator: it is the area of meetings between the hot winds, the trade winds, with two hemispheres. It is characterized by the significant formation of cumulonimbus clouds, clouds formed by hot and humid conditions on the surface and cold conditions and dry aloft. It recognizes the ITCZ by its cloud band surrounding the Earth. Among the sailors, this area is known as the doldrums. The meteorological Equator is not a stable band: it moves according to the periods of the year and the geographical areas. The ITCZ can move more than 1000 kilometres between summer and winter. Currently, the ITCZ is bulging.[/b]
150 MM... AND THIS IS NOT FINISHED!

M.A. France-Antilles Guadeloupe17.08.2011
(Sylvère SELBONNE)
He fell from the millions of litres of water on the Guadeloupe yesterday. Several districts were flooded. The orange alert is in effect still this morning.
Two days of continuous rain, or almost. The wave tropical No. 27 and storms that it generates have caused their lot of disturbances, yesterday, nothing really dramatic is to deplore. Program, the kilometres of Cap associated with portions of road flooded and serious climbs of water in typical areas.
It is 13 hours yesterday that weather France took the decision to move from the stage of yellow alert to orange alert for heavy rain and thunderstorms. At this time, he had already fallen, in 24 hours, a minimum of 50 mm of water (50 litres / m2) to Marie-Galante, 80 and 120 on the high-land, with spikes to 150 mm on the relief of the Basse-Terre. Saturated soil absorbed more nothing and is feared rivers and gullies overflows.
Traffic was very tricky in places, particularly on the bypass, between the Gabarre bridge and Petit-Bourg: in early afternoon, it took an hour to make these a few unfortunate kilometres, then yet that a good part of the drivers opted to traverse paths. Reported difficulties in Arnouville, Petit-Bourg, Morne-à - water and in les Abymes, on the road to the riviera, in the direction of guava, shroud, between Sainte-Rose and Lamentin. It is on Morne-à - the water and mould that the situation was the most embarrassing, with roads flooded and impassable on pavement, Bellevue, Chazeau, Bosrédon. Submerged engines of motorists who have assumed their chassis height already had dozens. And firefighters (read here) chômaient not.
[b]Another wave approach
It is in this same period, the early afternoon, that the situation is tough at the Boucan. The great river reached its rating alert, flooding several surrounding areas. It was feared a possible closure of the bridge, which would have made the unmanageable situation for residents of Sainte-Rose. Because, as early as 13 hours, roads of Guadeloupe had announced the closure of the road to the crossing from 18 hours. "There are whole sections of Cliff which are very unstable, noted Sully Pandolf (roads of Guadeloupe).".
The risk of rockfall is really important. "At 18 hours, the situation was, of course, embarrassing, but nothing insurmountable was emerging.
The orange alert runs normally until the end of afternoon of today. The risk is described as "strong" and impact "important".
Note that there will be little respite: medium-term weather France monitors a large mass of clouds out of Africa, tends to being confused with the ITCZ (read above). "We have, it is true, a small concern about this wave, but not because the ITCZ goes back to her, told yesterday Norbert Aouizérats, head of the centre of the Raizet.". These two elements are not related. This time of year is a period of uplift of the ITCZ, and this phenomenon has no particular effect on the wave. "The wave nevertheless has some potential for organization. If it was - "it is much too early to know...". "- it may interest us next weekend, possibly as a depression.
Many have presumed the height of their chassis. Drowned engines number in the dozens, and firefighters had to intervene to rescue blocked drivers. (Sylvère SELBONNE)
-EVIDENCE: "I've lost everything."
Micheline ramsay and her husband, Raymond dias, live in Arnouville (Baie-Mahault). Yesterday, the water is entered into their house.
The water is mounted high in the parts before reflow (Sy.) (S)
"I was going to lunch." It's my husband! He told me to be immediately out of the House, that the water came. "Glamorous 50 Micheline Ramsay has feet in water. Yet, it has dropped gradually when we arrive on the spot. It's just after the gateway of Arnouville, cited to the right, any small roadside, a beautiful House of ten pieces, beautiful place, surrounded by massive. There, the House took water.
"The only ones who have come are constables...". »
It was around 15 hours. "The water is mounted very quickly." It is because of the ravine, which is never long–term. It has clogged the underside of the little bridge that passes here and when the rubbish cap jumped, the water is mounted far home, drowning, before invading the neighbouring houses. »
Micheline Ramsay supported. "I called the fire department but they said that was not within their jurisdiction, the need to call technical services." At this time (18 hours), one town hall not to is moved. The Mayor knows come and see us when there will be elections. But when you need something, person. Not even an elected, not one administrative. The only ones who have come are constables. »
Micheline, Raymond, more than four other people - "children, small children who live with us," she said, did not know, yesterday evening, if they could stay in their homes or had to evacuate... The smell, the fear of a sudden upwelling with rain expected. "Friends only came assist us...". ", she said. But, Micheline (a) of the spring!
Micheline deplores the Town Hall is not shown.
-Very solicited firefighters
Contacted later in the day yesterday, the fire alert processing centre does not lamented victim or injured following the floods. However, firefighters have been busy, especially in the afternoon. They were very requested, inter alia on the areas of Sainte-Rose, guava, Petit-Bourg - at Arnouville including-, but also to the mould at Chateau-Gaillard and paved. There, aquatic rescue (VAS) of the departmental fire and rescue (Sdis) Service had to rescue a motorist trapped by the rising waters. They have her out of his car. They had to proceed here and security warnings there. For most of the motorists in difficulty. The Dragon of the civil security helicopter did not intervene for rescues and the hoists, but remained on alert in case where. As the police and gendarmerie services. An intelligence unit was activated, yesterday, in Prefecture to follow the evolution of the situation in connection with the Commons and to coordinate the interventions of the different services of the State.
-The ITCZ, you know?
(S.B.)
The area of the Intertropical Convergence corresponds to the meteorological equator: it is the area of meetings between the hot winds, the trade winds, with two hemispheres. It is characterized by the significant formation of cumulonimbus clouds, clouds formed by hot and humid conditions on the surface and cold conditions and dry aloft. It recognizes the ITCZ by its cloud band surrounding the Earth. Among the sailors, this area is known as the doldrums. The meteorological Equator is not a stable band: it moves according to the periods of the year and the geographical areas. The ITCZ can move more than 1000 kilometres between summer and winter. Currently, the ITCZ is bulging.[/b]
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Re: Caribbean - C A=Watching 93L in W Carib/Wave E of L Antilles
Hi guys, no countries in Central America have declared any kind of alert yet but the met services of Honduras, Guatemala, El Salvador and Belize have mentioned the system and are monitoring it, I will try to post updates here and in 93L thread. Now, yesterday temps in the region:
-Warmer than normal highs occurred in El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua. Cooler than normal highs were registered in Panama and near normal in the rest of the region.
-Near normal lows were registered in most of the region except for the highest locations of El Salvador, Honduras and Panama that registered warmer than normal lows.
Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 26°C (79°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 20.9°C (69.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17°C (63°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 8.9°C (48.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.8°C (67.6°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 14.4°C (57.9°F) Warmest since June 21
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.2°C (72.0°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 19°C (66°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.7°C (63.9°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.2°C (72.0°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 6.0°C (42.8°F)
Panama city, Panama 21.8°C (71.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.4°C (57.9°F)
Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 32°C (90°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 29.8°C (85.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25°C (77°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 19.3°C (66.7°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 33°C (91°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.9°C (87.6°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20.0°C (68.0°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.2°C (97.2°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 29°C (84°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 37°C (99°F) Warmest sine May 10
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 27°C (81°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 28.4°C (83.1°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 32.6°C (90.7°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 12.5°C (54.5°F)
Panama city, Panama 30.8°C (87.4°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.6°C (72.7°F)
-Warmer than normal highs occurred in El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua. Cooler than normal highs were registered in Panama and near normal in the rest of the region.
-Near normal lows were registered in most of the region except for the highest locations of El Salvador, Honduras and Panama that registered warmer than normal lows.
Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 26°C (79°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 20.9°C (69.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17°C (63°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 8.9°C (48.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.8°C (67.6°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 14.4°C (57.9°F) Warmest since June 21
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.2°C (72.0°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 19°C (66°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.7°C (63.9°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.2°C (72.0°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 6.0°C (42.8°F)
Panama city, Panama 21.8°C (71.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.4°C (57.9°F)
Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 32°C (90°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 29.8°C (85.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25°C (77°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 19.3°C (66.7°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 33°C (91°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.9°C (87.6°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20.0°C (68.0°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.2°C (97.2°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 29°C (84°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 37°C (99°F) Warmest sine May 10
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 27°C (81°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 28.4°C (83.1°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 32.6°C (90.7°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 12.5°C (54.5°F)
Panama city, Panama 30.8°C (87.4°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.6°C (72.7°F)
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