Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic -(Now Invest 97L)

[ConvergenceZone]

so much for the idea of a recurve east of the US. yikes

Yea, I actually thought the GFS would sniff out a weakness and veer more right. But it's actually doing the the opposite and the track is more west.

[WeatherEmperor]

So who is going to post tonight's Euro??

[Hurricaneman]

if 3 to 4 days from now, if the GFS is still showing this headed in the same areas it has been the last 5 days, then thats when I will become really concerned. Right now I'm keeping a really close eye on it

[ROCK]

seems landfall is below Tampa which is good I guess...again 9 days out with the GFS however it hasnt wavered much...got to give it props for sticking to its guns....

bring on the mighty EURO.....

[cycloneye]

So who is going to post tonight's Euro??

One of the Euro huggers ROCK.

[ConvergenceZone]

I thought we would have an invest by now....Do you think it's a good bet will have an invest tagged within the next 24 hours?

[beoumont]

The most impressive thing to me about this 192 hr. GFS 200 mb. wish map is that there is an upper low embedded in the upper high over the hurricane. When you see that occur, you likely have a very intense, perfectly vertically stacked, kahoona in progress underneath.

[ROCK]

So who is going to post tonight's Euro??

One of the Euro huggers ROCK.

ha ha.. ...yes I am a EURO hugger....whereas the GFS has not wavered the EURO has been flipping...more so towards a weaker system...oh the suspense...

[boca]

I remember being in the 5 day cone with Emily here in Florida and Ft Lauderdale was dead center.I take these runs as fantasy but what has me concerned is the run to run consistency of a Florida hit.

[psyclone]

I thought we would have an invest by now....Do you think it's a good bet will have an invest tagged within the next 24 hours?

i think that's highly probable.

[cycloneye]

I thought we would have an invest by now....Do you think it's a good bet will have an invest tagged within the next 24 hours?

i think that's highly probable.

Sure bet later this morning.

[Scorpion]

I remember being in the 5 day cone with Emily here in Florida and Ft Lauderdale was dead center.I take these runs as fantasy but what has me concerned is the run to run consistency of a Florida hit.

I don't think in the history of the GFS model has it done something like this.

[Adoquín]

Latest GFS shows a more significant player earlier in the game. Also the tendency shows greater likelihood of landfall in SW Puerto Rico, followed by trek wnw in Mona Channel towards the northeastern DR, which will allow the center and northeastern side of the storm to avoid serious structural damage. I wish I could say the same for western PR, but it is still too early to tell whether this will be a 55 mph platanera o something more serious at 108-120 hours.

[ROCK]

I remember being in the 5 day cone with Emily here in Florida and Ft Lauderdale was dead center.I take these runs as fantasy but what has me concerned is the run to run consistency of a Florida hit.

I don't think in the history of the GFS model has it done something like this.

I have never seen it do this...usually big swings 9 days out....

[Scorpion]

I remember being in the 5 day cone with Emily here in Florida and Ft Lauderdale was dead center.I take these runs as fantasy but what has me concerned is the run to run consistency of a Florida hit.

I don't think in the history of the GFS model has it done something like this.

I have never seen it do this...usually big swings 9 days out....

I remember the last time it did something remotely like this was Dean, but even then it was swinging between Mexico and Newfoundland.

[Hurricaneman]

I remember being in the 5 day cone with Emily here in Florida and Ft Lauderdale was dead center.I take these runs as fantasy but what has me concerned is the run to run consistency of a Florida hit.

I don't think in the history of the GFS model has it done something like this.

The closest thing I can think of wasn't even a tropical system, 7 days out, the GFS which was known as the AVN picked up the 1993 Superstorm, thats the closest to consistancy with a system I remember for any model

[South Texas Storms]

I remember being in the 5 day cone with Emily here in Florida and Ft Lauderdale was dead center.I take these runs as fantasy but what has me concerned is the run to run consistency of a Florida hit.

I don't think in the history of the GFS model has it done something like this.

I have never seen it do this...usually big swings 9 days out....

Rock you giving up hope for TX? More sewage water for you?

[cycloneye]

Latest GFS shows a more significant player earlier in the game. Also the tendency shows greater likelihood of landfall in SW Puerto Rico, followed by trek wnw in Mona Channel towards the northeastern DR, which will allow the center and northeastern side of the storm to avoid serious structural damage. I wish I could say the same for western PR, but it is still too early to tell whether this will be a 55 mph platanera o something more serious at 108-120 hours.

Agree with that. The best model for us is to watch the progress of the system in real time to see how is moving and start preparations to not leave it to the last minute.

[lonelymike]

Well some good news is that the mighty NOGAPS does not develop this system

[ROCK]

I don't think in the history of the GFS model has it done something like this.[/quote]

I have never seen it do this...usually big swings 9 days out....[/quote]

Rock you giving up hope for TX? More sewage water for you?[/quote]

hope? for a major? I never hope for a major but I do like the fact our sewer showering / sewer drinking ridge is retreating west in the coming days....