Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic -(Now Invest 97L)

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ROCK
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Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

#761 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:32 am

Image


there is its exit....also note it seems it ramps back up pretty quick...


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Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

#762 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:41 am

a lot more stronger this run than the 12Z from earlier today....also the weakness is more pronounced at 144hr than the 12Z.....
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Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

#763 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:42 am

bottom is falling it out now...boom

Image

I am sniffing recurve or up the EC for FL and beyond..

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#764 Postby BigB0882 » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:45 am

With that weakness might it just miss making landfall on the East coast? It will be scary if the model, as is often true, under estimates the ridge out to the East.
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Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

#765 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:47 am

Well the Euro has reboarded the train I see...

Holy crap! 969 mb!

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Last edited by Brent on Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:49 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re:

#766 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:48 am

BigB0882 wrote:With that weakness might it just miss making landfall on the East coast? It will be scary if the model, as is often true, under estimates the ridge out to the East.


the ridge is building back but how fast is the question.......all of this really depends if it get going as advertised. Right now its nothing special then you have to contend with core disruption over PR and Hispa....who knows what that is going to do to it..
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Re: Re:

#767 Postby BigB0882 » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:49 am

ROCK wrote:
BigB0882 wrote:With that weakness might it just miss making landfall on the East coast? It will be scary if the model, as is often true, under estimates the ridge out to the East.


the ridge is building back but how fast is the question.......all of this really depends if it get going as advertised. Right now its nothing special then you have to contend with core disruption over PR and Hispa....who knows what that is going to do to it..


Yes. As soon as I posted that I see the 168 hour map and the ridging is building back in slightly. Curious to see how it looks further out.
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Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

#768 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:49 am

Brent wrote:Well the Euro has reboarded the train I see...



yeah, its been kinda of squirrely lately....the 12Z was a totally different solution....
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Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

#769 Postby weatherguy2 » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:50 am

That's a big build back of the ridge, should shove it right into the east coast:
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Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

#770 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:51 am

there is your ridge building back however it is already well off the EC of FL.I wonder if it will push it back into the NCs....

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#771 Postby BigB0882 » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:51 am

Oh wow, it builds back in and in a big way. Might that push it across FL and into the Gulf?
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#772 Postby maxintensity » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:52 am

I think this storm belongs to the GFS. It was the first to show development and it has not wavered since. ECMWF, while God, has been too inconsistent.
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Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

#773 Postby weatherguy2 » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:53 am

Wow:
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Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

#774 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:54 am

still off the coast at 216hr.....
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Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

#775 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:54 am

Wow. Folks we have a consensus, and it ain't good...
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#776 Postby BigB0882 » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:54 am

Definitely looking like EC this run. That looks like a very powerful storm.
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Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

#777 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:56 am

Brent wrote:Wow. Folks we have a consensus, and it ain't good...


come on Brent.. :D ..consensus? really? when the 12Z Euro was the complete opposite to what we are seeing here. We are talking 9-10 days right....give me 2 more runs of the EURO with this same general solution then I will jump on your wagon.... :lol:
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Re:

#778 Postby maxintensity » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:56 am

BigB0882 wrote:Definitely looking like EC this run. That looks like a very powerful storm.
And despite the Euros flip flops, it has never showed a US miss. Both GFS and Euro have always had US landfall.
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Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

#779 Postby weatherguy2 » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:56 am

Look like a SC landfall at 957 mb:
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Last edited by weatherguy2 on Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:58 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

#780 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:57 am

into the NC coast as a major.....ouch.....

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