Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic -(Now Invest 97L)

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Vortex
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#801 Postby Vortex » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:18 am

H+90 just SSE of PR...



http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal090.gif
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#802 Postby Vortex » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:20 am

H+96 strengthening and just S of PR....another carbon copy run by the GFS???



http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal096.gif
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#803 Postby Vortex » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:23 am

H+102 Lanfall E DR...less than 5 days to a potential hurricane stike...



http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal108.gif
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Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

#804 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:24 am

Seems the models are speeding up this system, it's on us much sooner than before.
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#805 Postby Vortex » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:26 am

IMO, I really hope folks throughout the carribean and SE US begin to pay very close attention, the time of "entertaining" is about over...This looks to be the "real deal"...
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#806 Postby Vortex » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:28 am

H+126 continues to rake Hispanolia...


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal126.gif
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#807 Postby Vortex » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:31 am

H+132 and the beating continues over Hispanolia..This would truely be devastating to the island..slightly SW of the 00z run at this point..


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal138.gif
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#808 Postby Vortex » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:33 am

H+144 near eastern Cuba...run abit faster and slightly SW of previous..Could make a run for the gulf this run...


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal144.gif
Last edited by Vortex on Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#809 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:33 am

Would also probably end the system as welll...remember what happened when Emily interacted too long over Hispaniola?

I suspect the GFS is overdoing the development in the short term still, esp compared to other models, and a weak system taking the 06z GFS track wouldn't come out a tropical cyclone...
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Re:

#810 Postby wzrgirl1 » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:35 am

KWT wrote:Would also probably end the system as welll...remember what happened when Emily interacted too long over Hispaniola?

I suspect the GFS is overdoing the development in the short term still, esp compared to other models, and a weak system taking the 06z GFS track wouldn't come out a tropical cyclone...



Yes but Emily was barely anything to begin with when it went over Hispaniola.
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#811 Postby Vortex » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:36 am

H+156 hugging N cuban coast...beginning to intensify...



http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal156.gif
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#812 Postby Vortex » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:40 am

Intensitywise unkonwn due to significant land interaction "possibly" synoptics are favoring a hit more and more somewhere along the US coastline...
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Re:

#813 Postby wzrgirl1 » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:42 am

Vortex wrote:Intensitywise unkonwn due to significant land interaction "possibly" synoptics are favoring a hit more and more somewhere along the US coastline...



Looks as if though that may be the case vortex. A week away is close enough to warrant my attention that's for sure. It's all about the timing.
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#814 Postby Meso » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:42 am

At 168 hours it is a lot more south and west than previous runs! Looking like a possible GOM entry on this run... Would need to move directly north to hit the east coast
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Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

#815 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:42 am

Crown Weather discussion of pouch P17L/pre 97L.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557
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#816 Postby Vortex » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:42 am

H+180 starting to bomb just SE of FL keys...


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal180.gif
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Re: Re:

#817 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:43 am

wzrgirl1 wrote:
Yes but Emily was barely anything to begin with when it went over Hispaniola.


If the ECM is right then this will be barely nothing by the time it gets close to Hispaniola...If it hits it full on like the GFS with the ECM's strength at that point...its going to have a real hard time getting going again.

My BIG fear is it ends up either a little north or south of the 06z GFS...the 06z GFS is near PERFECT to keep it weak...forget what the GFS does strength wise because its strengthening 17L over both Hispaniola AND cuba...which is nonsense.
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#818 Postby Vortex » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:46 am

H192 key west nightmare....


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal192.gif
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#819 Postby Vortex » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:46 am

H204 just SW of Tampa...bombing out...


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal204.gif
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#820 Postby Vortex » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:47 am

H240 well inland over GA...


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal240.gif
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