Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic -(Now Invest 97L)

[Vortex]

The theme "The hits keep coming"....

[SkeetoBite]

H204 just SW of Tampa...bombing out...


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal204.gif

Thats' on top of Tampa, my boat and my house. Way too early to panic, or even take these models too seriously beyond noting the consistency in developing this system. Worth watching closely though.

Edit: Really a worst case scenario for Tampa Bay. That angle would push a ton of water into the Bay and Inter-coastal waterway

[KWT]

I suspect westward trend may well continue, especially as the GFS starts much further south then the ECM.

Probably close to the best track for the US in terms of strength, it'll be severely weakened by a long trek over Hispaniola and Cuba.

[jlauderdal]

H192 key west nightmare....


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal192.gif

looking good for my at least 150 miles south of FLL prediction, system looks too strong coming off the land interaction, also think its too far north, stays south of hispanola and runs across cuba or south of there towards Jamaica

[crownweather]

Crown Weather discussion of pouch P17L/pre 97L.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

Thanks for posting the link cyclone! Trying to be conservative with the discussions surrounding pre 97L, however, the model trends, including the ensembles are concerning.

[ronjon]

06z GFS at 192 hrs low res. Have to say its been consistent - now about a week away from S FL.

[Vortex]

Crown Weather discussion of pouch P17L/pre 97L.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

Thanks for posting the link cyclone! Trying to be conservative with the discussions surrounding pre 97L, however, the model trends, including the ensembles are concerning.

Always enjoy your input Rob...Keep up the excellent work.

[KWT]

H192 key west nightmare....


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal192.gif

looking good for my at least 150 miles south of FLL prediction, system looks too strong coming off the land interaction, also think its too far north, stays south of hispanola and runs across cuba or south of there towards Jamaica

Yep totally agree, its probably at least 10mbs too strong both coming off Hispaniola and Cuba and that can make a difference.

One thing that does look true, the conditions look good in the Bahamas...then again I swear the same thing happened with Emily...hmmm...

[OURAGAN]

He is starting to organize, less dry air.

[KWT]

OURAGAN, thqats a cool image because you can really see how far its got to come, the structure isn't too bad, but the convection is pretty poor still, got a long hard battle against that SAL.

[GCANE]

About the most aggressive I have seen FIM so far this year.

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=fim:&runTime=2011081800&plotName=mslp_sfc&fcstInc=360&numFcsts=41&model=fim&ptitle=Experimental%20FIM%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=240&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=244&wjet=1

[Meso]

Dry air actually looks to be getting a bit worse, increasing in strength ahead of the system, though it keeps it's nice pouch of moisture.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

[KWT]

Getting dry air from all angles...that tends to not be a great sing for development...

Probably ECM will be right with no development for the next 3-5 days...still should be an invest though!

[gatorcane]

Okay the ECMWF is on board I see. The agreement with the GFS is quite remarkable. Have to start paying attention now I guess

[SFLcane]

If a track close to the 06z pans i'd think the storm will have to walk a fine line or it will be severely disrupted by hispanola and cuba. No worries here just keeping an eye it as should eveyone as we are approaching the peak of this season.

[GCANE]

A different solution for FIMY.


http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=fimy:&runTime=2011081800&plotName=mslp_sfc&fcstInc=360&numFcsts=41&model=fim&ptitle=Experimental%20FIM%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=240&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=244&wjet=1

[KWT]

Okay the ECMWF is on board I see. The agreement with the GFS is quite remarkable. Have to start paying attention now I guess

Yep, I think that probably will have gotten NHC attention as well, I'm willing to bet if the 12z suite is still agressive then they will put an invest up for it...esp given its not *that* far from the islands really (3-4 days)

[cycloneye]

Okay the ECMWF is on board I see. The agreement with the GFS is quite remarkable. Have to start paying attention now I guess

Yep, I think that probably will have gotten NHC attention as well, I'm willing to bet if the 12z suite is still agressive then they will put an invest up for it...esp given its not *that* far from the islands really (3-4 days)

NHC has full attention to this that already they have possible recon for Saturday.

[GCANE]

Looks like it is shaking off that dry-air slug on its southern flank and getting reconnected to the ITCZ.

[KWT]

NHC has full attention to this that already they have possible recon for Saturday.

Oh I'm not saying they aren't watching out...but Investment is what I class as *full* attention, given thats when they can bring out a heck of alot more resources to track a system...

I'm sure its only a matter of time, no need to rush things I suppose with 93L doing what its doing right now.